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Exactly! He will not have promised those 3 news items unless he was confident. Sales this month, and new NHS sites and FDA partner and route news by the end of the month or beginning of next.

Paddy and Stocksaint are likely the same person imo.

James made it clear there would likely more than one round of funding required to bridge the gap before they are self sustaining. He also made it really clear the first of those would be funding for FDA in q1, so a couple of million would do it. Plus we need to wait to hear about partners and how they will contribute.

In the meantime a lot of positive news is coming! :)

I’m convinced RF has forward sold most of those shares, Thursday and Friday last week.

Or get in now before sales news in a few weeks.

Yes but they received a drawdown the evening before, which means despite the share price being below 16p they were able to agree a deal with RF.

The results RNS will have been written before that announcement I’m sure. You only need to watch the presentation and you’ll see for yourself that the funding is for FDA.

I’m going by what they said in the presentation as that’s the latest. The written results were likely written before the RF further drawdown announcement came through, announced the evening before.

Even in the RNS they’ve stated the runway or window can be extended, by receiving further drawdowns, tax credit and sales.

Nobody is disputing that the company needs some kind of funding for the FDA submission.

The point is there are several majorly positive news items expected before then. Each of them capable of sending the share price significantly up from here, most exciting imo is the EU orders within the next few weeks and then hopefully a snowballing effect across the 6 countries we can now sell in.

First impressions matter, James wouldn’t have said this without having some internal evidence that it will happen. All the expected news is exciting, looking forward to hearing the details regarding FDA partners and the new go-live sites too once contracts have been finalised this month.

TrustSerpico, exactly my thoughts!

4 years from date of issue, so the majority will expire in just over 3 years. RF will want the share price far higher than it is currently before any fundraising, to ensure minimal dilution.

Fingers crossed for the news we’ve been told will be coming! There’s a very realistic possibility imo of seeing 10-20p here in the 3-6 weeks, which is 80-250% rise from the current level. That’s being conservative too considering the presentation we’ve just had and that we were way above 20p a few months ago.

I don't have the facility terms to hand but I do remember there was something that required them to sell the shares they have before they can request new shares. Also some clauses about how much they can sell, depending on volume over a certain timeframe. It will simply be their business model, when certain conditions are present they will sell. They've been very careful to only sell into large buying volume, not to crash the price for their own good as well as the company's. It would make no sense to drive the price down when they have so many warrants at a higher price.

My impression is they're making a small regular profit on their sells, and have all the warrants remaining for potentially huge profits medium term. Genedrive will be smashing the market with AIHL way before their warrants expire.

RF simply have to make sure the company is supported financially so it can keep going ...and be mindful not to crash the price to levels that would end up vapourising their warrants through dilution.

I really believe Cheek will deliver on those EU orders this month and provide details on the new NHS go-live sites. As well as updating the market on FDA partners and more by next month. He seems like a man of integrity and it sounds like he's achieved a ton of progress in the 2.5 months since starting.

A couple of other thoughts. It’s worth considering the possibility that the Riverfort selling over the past couple of days could be forward selling of the shares they know they will receive on Tuesday. In which case we might actually start to see the share price rise on Tuesday, in the lead up to 3 major news items expected in the next few weeks.

If not then the sells will be the shares they were allocated back in September. Which would go to show that they don’t sell their shares as soon as they receive them.

* half a billion mcap

Sorry few mistakes.

*because of the original terms

Can not be considered as guaranteed because if the original but obviously the fact that we had one for November and using common sense suggests we will continue to have them when needed. They have mutual interests in the drawdowns. Plus any large discounted placing (eg. 1 or 2p) would effectively evaporate the chances of them ever being able to exercise their millions of warrants unless we had like a 5000% increase in the share price and half a million mcap which I don’t see happening before their warrants expire.

Yes I’m not a fan of ridiculously inflated figures either.

I do think though that they will capture a much more significant percentage of the market than you’ve estimated. After all this is the only test of its kind, it’s fairly certain it will be written into standard guidance for the NHS so that’s £8.5m alone. Once we have FDA approval it should snowball as nobody will want to face a lawsuit by not providing the test.

And EU orders, well they’re starting this month so let’s see how quickly it takes off. As James said, it’s going to smash the market.

What a load of nonsense Stocksaint lol, previously your posts were often quite reasonable.

Riverfort will obviously continue providing the monthly drawdowns to ensure the company continues, and to ensure their millions of warrants are not wasted through dilution.

We received one for November and I guarantee we will do again later this month and onwards.

Revenue from EU orders expected to start this month, and that’s only going to grow month after month. Plus the tax credit. Some kind of funding for FDA will come in Q1, though this is obviously positive. Some kind of US partnership deal coming this month/jan to help fund FDA and fast track the process.

Actually the UK market is £8.5m, the EU market is £46.75m, the US market is £34m and rest of world £13.75m.

There are 100,000 NICU admissions in England and Wales every year out of approx 700,000 births. So about 15% of births in England and Wales would need the AIHL (MT-RNR1) test kit.

Just rough calculations but a typical hospital will have at least 5000 births a year, so based on the above we can say 750 of those (15%) will need the test per year. So with 750 tests costing £60,000 (£80 each) plus the machines and other fees, with that in mind it's easy to see how quickly the EU revenue could build up.

Now that the MT-RNR1 test kits have been translated into the local languages of the 6 EU countries that we can currently sell in, at £60 per test and orders expected this month, I think it's reasonable to expect several hundred thousand GBP worth of orders at least, plus installation costs. Example, say one clinic in each of those countries orders 1000 kits to get started then that's £480,000 plus installation costs and probably ongoing maintenance service fees.

Total EU market £46.8 million per year.