Member Info for Jerryspaniel

Greetings from the Queensland jungle.

I too have had the same email string forwarded to me and can vouch for its authenticity.

NAL, I filtered you many years ago cos you are an idiot. I have met so many lovely Aussies on my travels here. It’s a shame that you appear to be bringing the average down. At least I will never have to meet you.

Every time BHP, Barrick, Newmont, the Chinese or Noboa do or say anything, there are people who immediately draw a straight line to Solgold. That’s quite a leap imo.

Bozi, I think everyone would choose 200p in three years time over 60p now if it were guaranteed that we would get 200p. When you layer in the probability of 200p in three years, it becomes much different imo. So for me the certainty of 60/70p is far more attractive as I put the 200p chance as v v low.

Imo, if the Chinese are smart their next bid will be at a price that the Solgold board will be obliged to put to shareholders. I don’t think the Solgold board can just say no thanks forever. As a guess I would say that’s about 50p, and it probably won’t come with a board recommendation to accept. But it will put everyone on the spot and may draw out another bidder. It will also make it tricky for BHP and NEM. I could be persuaded that the price is 60p and not 50p. I don’t think it’s 40p and I doubt JCC think it’s 70p either.

Looks like the next bid will becoming from L&G….

Yep, and it often weakens into the ASX close cos the mkt makers know they can usually pick the London stock up cheaper due to PI selling. But the strength in Australia is reassuring and steady.

JG, in my experience most companies will use roughly what others use. Only the desperate will use numbers that are a lot higher than the competition, and no point being overly conservative. I prefer a company to use consensus and also spot, just to show the upside potential.

I hope that everyone who is planning to pass their ggp down the line is taking some tax advice, cos Rachel thinks 40% of your ggp is hers…..

It’s very very rare for shares to rerate (go up) without some actual buying. Recent price action suggests to me that there are few buyers in London. Institutional demand for miners in London has evaporated over the past 25 years or so. So the only consistent buyers in London atm are the PIs. But we have an ageing GGP PI base in London, which means most are thinking of when they are going to sell, not buy. Bamps’ wonderful presentations illustrate the point perfectly. Attendees, not looking to buy, but seeking justification for holding, and I include myself in these groups.

So the buying will come from Aussie and NA instos and some ETFs. Which is exactly what happened today.

If you want the price higher watch what’s happening in Australia cos that’s who will make that happen for you.

Coincidentally I have been in Australia for past two weeks and will be watching on from this time zone till the Sydney test concludes. Brisvegas tomorrow.

I couldn’t have put it better myself Hydro.

It’s quite likely that the seller (the shareholders) can prevent a sale in the 20s and probably the 30s. Imo after that it will be decided by the buyer(s).

Thanks v much to DBW for the translation of the HK article. Seems to me that JCC really need a lot of feed for their cu smelters. At today’s TC/RC levels it must be very marginal for a cu smelter that has to buy in feedstock. But this deal will allow JCC to be fully integrated and there can’t be many corporate deals that will get them to that point.

So the question becomes who else will bid for Solgold to get JCC into a less comfortable position of maybe losing this asset. My worry about BHP is that they are so slow in making decisions. Have they, through their holding in Solgold been keeping up to dat with events, or does their investment have no great support within BHP? Not sure NEM have the management breadth to go it alone. Would Lundin hold either of these twos hands?

I have always liked the assets and now I like the management too. So it’s a case of sit back and watch battle commence. I can’t think of a better duo than PS and DV to be playing our hand.

What the larger holders bought at is completely irrelevant imo. They don’t look at this through the lens of the PI. It’s now a question of do they want to buy the assets or don’t they.

Stack is right. It was dilutive to shareholders, because the shareholders used to own the shares and now we don’t. But we got 9p vs whatever value you wish to put on the company. At the time 7p, now 30p, and nav wherever you like. But we had no choice.

IP, do you know of any other deal where Chinese firms have bid against each other? I thought it was a bit of a no-no?

55p takeout

Completely different situation, so I say v v unlikely. It’s a massive copper play. We are a massive gold play.

26p is not a knockout bid, it’s a feeler and will just encourage others to bid. Not sure who is advising JCC but not that clever. Smart move by PS to out them. But this is curtains for Solgold as an independent company. Just price now.

Not sure WB has opined on gold for years and he is now stepping back. So my bet is it’s fake.

Dont forget we dont get 100% of the gold price as the mint needs to refine the dore and the rest is within the cu conc. Not sure what we do get but not 100%.