The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
Acker - Hope you are well. Ive been a bit vacant from here given the low energy i have for Prem atm. Wondering How you see 2024 playing out?
Unfortunately, i don't expect production until Q3. Q1 will be install and commissioning, Q2 further commissioning and solving of newly highlighted issues and possibly production Q3.
In the time being, there will be much more dilution and the possibility of a loan.
I am also of the opinion that if GR does not ship 1k tonnes by end of Q1 and no end to the problems in sight, he should partner with Canmax on Zulu and the entire EPO.
Sincerely hope it doesn't get to that, but GR does not seem confident in his contractors ability to deliver and nor do shareholders. Further to this, i would like to see GR take Stark to court over the design of the original plant. This has cost Prem hundreds of millions in revenue at high spod prices + dilution of shares. So frustrating.
J
Avacta shareholder for 3 yrs here. Bought at the top, on the way down and right at the bottom too. The data for the Cohorts has gained strength on each staged completion, and all company data & commentary points to the paradigm shift they so proclaim. Today is another important step towards something much bigger than money... and i sincerely hope the next year or two continues to deliver on the great promise and hope. Of course i hope for good fortune to be made for LTH's too, but i equally and desperately would love to hear of positive stories from those who risked it all on a little unknown drug called AVA6000.... the patients and their families.
J
Best likelycase is a buyout. Worst case is a JV with heavy dilution of an already depressed SP/MC. If they somehow strike a brilliant deal, they could JV and supply for an offtaker, but likely VDTK would be a feeder company and not the main business resulting in low profit as profits focus on offtaker.
J
Only chance holders have of getting out with any cash is if company come in to buy Vdtk mainly for their manufacturing plants. No one in their right mind would JV with Vdtk. Fwiw they might had well just buy the lot.
Sorry to the holders. Terribly ran.
J
I stated a week or so ago that 'max fear' will be early December time and I still believe this. Im fearful of how much Canmax take from Prem in the run up to production. Also, the true cost of the loan repayments which will likely be via shares imo. The dilution will be large and can see .2 as the bottom. I also don't believe Prem are likely to make any SC6 in Q1. We know for sure now, that Stark are incompetent so any claims of Jan production come with a high level of suspicion. Even with the new mill, hydrosizer and thickner there will be months of optimisation. Therefore i would suggest Q2 is the earliest for production. With mass dilution and more issues to follow, i am seriously considering jumping out of this for 3 months at the risk of it actually working and missing the SP rise. I have zero faith in GR and Stark and the continued low SC6 market prices make for dull reading. Interested to hear how others have managed their holding. P Ive been in Prem for over 3 years, so newbies can refrain from any talk of FUD.
J
Now you all watch carefully how GR will increase his shareholding far beyond his original holding whilst the price is low. He will have Prem pay his loan back and buy shares having depressed the SP so low. He will be the only guy who comes out of dilution smelling of roses while the remaining shareholders are covered in his sh*t. Disgrace. GR out
J
As it stands, with the complete absence of information, dropping SP, Stark payment in Shares, Potential Goddard dilution and impending deadline... It is clear that November will see a cash payment to Canmax + the promise of a close delivery.
Its very clear to see why the SP has dropped and has all the hallmarks of a classic 'bad news about to land' scenario. I would really like to know what the Stark milestone was. Im concerned that it was for plant completion, as this would also trigger handover of Assets to Prem meaning they are responsible for running it and all associated costs meaning risk and outlays will increase. As SP drops, the 'Real Costs' of Goddard dilution increases.
I truly believe Prem will produce in Q1 2024, and Fear will be at its highest early December. I plan to top up then as i can see SP around the .25 mark. (Cant believe im actually saying that from the highs of 1p).
When Prem do actually crack it, the SP will see good returns for new investors and Medium term investors can get back on an even/improved standing.
Long term, Prem can take all of these learnings into other projects and with any luck, we wont need Canmax to fund it. I could see a world where we fund Li3.... but lets not get carried away. First Delivery please George. GLA. Going to be a rocky week/month again.
J
I think Biztechs video explains the situation and questions really well. I believe that he was spot on with the claim that Stark have taken shares as payment, so that Prem can hold back the cash ahead of Novembers missed deadline to pay Canmax. Further to this, they also have the 2 week shutdown in December but still require to hit the 1k delivery.
I think they will either pull it out the back and deliver in both Nov & Dec 'OR' they miss both deadlines and first delivery Jan/Feb. The latter is most likely IMO. Very painful hold atm, but still bullish long term despite my frustration and despair with all the lies this year....
J
Good Post Tygra. People very quickly forget Stark have cost Prem circa $70m in profit this year due to poor design ($3.5k/pt x 4k tonnes/pm - expenses x 10months). Its no wonder the market does not trust Stark.... and as for GR, we all know he is prepared to lie to camera and on RNS.
SC6 production is now the only thing that will turn it all around. Im sure all will be forgiven upon release of RNS...... but its been a long, painful and costly hold.
J
What I can’t understand Daz, is that fail to see that opinions change based on time revealing itself. Shares change course, as does opportunity, risk, potential etc.
You blindly support KOD like a football team, with Prem their fierce rival.
Yes my opinion of Prem has changed. I think given recent disappointments I’m well within my rights to adjust my holdings. You on the other hand get off on attacking people and trying to deform their character. It’s sad really.
I’m well behind avacta, absolutely no shame in admitting that with the progress they’ve made in cancer therapies. But would know much about shame.
I sharnt respond. I’ve wasted enough of my time on an internet troll.
J
I have to say that was one of the worst interviews I’ve seen on prem. The interview was poorly researched and GR babbled his way through questions, speaking a lot, whilst saying nothing of interest.
His circumnavigation the SC % was obvious, and they are clearly not making SC6 as yet. I don’t believe they are on track, however, I feel they are trying to keep the share price up ahead of the rise to pay for Novembers missed the deadline. Just my opinion. Still long.
J
WWP - good post and agree with most of what you have said. The only concern for hitting Nov shipment is obviously time. Changing chemical levels in the Float, flushing it through to gain a stable environment, running the impure spod through to allow for separation and drying/dropping the cake into a bag takes time. Then you have the time to analyse the SC%, before doing the whole thing over and over in small refinements. This is why i stated in a previous post weeks ago, it is crucial that we have a headstart on that process by already being at 5 - 5.5%
I sincerely hope this is the case now that we have stable feed to the float.
J
On the other hand, if he hits SC6, SP will rocket. It’s literally a gamble for STH’s. LTH’s can see past Q1 24 and that’s where real value & potential lies. Insolvency won’t happen until they sell/lease Li3 & use up all 5bn share options… which hasn’t happened yet. IMO
J
Furthermore, the lack of rns confirms what stark said… that it will take time to optimise to get to SC6. Is GR waiting for SC6 before he reports back? I think so, otherwise he risks a lower SP ahead of a potential raise to pay for the none-shipment in Nov.
I said a few weeks back that holders should be prepared to wait a few weeks for GR to report back. Tbh I thought last Friday we would see an rns. I would love to have been a fly on the wall in GR’s office during the stark interview.
J