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Profit - agree that trust has been lost. The issue of trust is one I’m struggling with the most, but I’m confident in the Zulu foundations and have willingness to ride out the storm.
Acker - yes you have been very patient! One of the most patient. You will be rewarded handsomely I’m sure, and never again will we hear the phrase ‘jam tomorrow’
J
News - later this week
SC6 in July - Unlikely
Output targets met in July - No
Output targets met in August - Unlikely
Billion Dollar company by the end of 2024 - Very Likely
Be patient folks. A week or month here or there is nothing in construction and mining industries. If you can’t handle the patience, Prem is certainty the wrong place to be. GLA
J
As I mentioned last week, I believe there will be an RNS end of this week. Likely to say that GR is still in talks with new offtakers and Canmax are negotiating. Quick update on short term finances and plant upgrade. I suspect nothing too material but lots of ‘GR style’ messages of hope which will give the SP a boost.
Too early to announce a deal imo. New offtakers won’t commit to anything until they have at least received results of the latest STARK upgrades impact to SC%.
Worth noting that the last 3 weeks or so the plant has not run so cash reserves will have been largely reduced. Interesting to hear the balance if mentioned in the fore-coming RNS. GLA.
J
Don’t be spooked by the lack of RNS folks. We were told 2 weeks + optimisation. We’ve had 2 weeks, now we wait for optimisation. GR would not RNS to say what Stark have said via LinkedIn…. It looks on track and that’s good enough for now. Update required by 28th and no later George.
J
Watcher - I dont think the sell off would be justified as GR and Stark informed people it would be 2 weeks to install the UV and HC and then optimisation. If anyone is selling after today it is because their expectations are too high imo.
If we don't have any news by end of month, then yes, i would agree its time to panic.
J
Fair enough, thanks. IMO based on previous history, GR does not send out comms once an installation is complete. He tends to wait for it to run up and get some optimisation first. Unless a deal is reached (which obvs must be announced asap), I not expecting to hear much until end of next week earliest. Hopefully im wrong.
J
Acker - Agree with your logic. It would be very interesting to hear what Canmax shareholders are saying about the situation as Canmax securing SC6 will only increase profits and therefore Canmax SP.
IMO Canmax don't like GR so i find it interesting to hear what they might request as part of the compromise deal.
Watcher - Can i ask why you feel news is imminent? Thanks.
J
I suspect that many risk averse investors (as risk averse as you can get on AIM!) will likely be reducing their holding as this has high risk-high reward written all over it. Also many opportunists buying whilst down v's recent highs.
Ultimately the SP reflects Prems position. Underfunded with a great asset. Until that short term risk is mitigated and the cost of that understood, people will be cautious.
Whilst i do feel Prem will ride the storm, i also feel it will take time and there will be plenty more choppy waters ahead.
Best case scenario here is that deal is agreed, but it wont be with Canmax unless Chinese can save some face. This will come at a cost to both Prem & Canmax. One might call it a compromise deal.
J
Not been posting much on here lately as speculating too much, for too long, with too little information is not great for the mind.
GR should update the market this week regardless of position on finance. Many waiting to hear if Canmax are negotiating or who will finance Prem short term.
I’m confident GR will find short term ways to fund the machine because this is his baby and he won’t hand it over to anyone…. That much is clear.
Biggest risk for me in the short term is quality and quantity of SC when we turn plant on with the UV sorters and HC.
I suspect it won’t go to plan as Stark have done nothing but disappoint to this point in proceedings. Likely more optimisations will be required and targets readjusted to SC5 until December or something similar.
SP could remain depressed for remainder of the year unless Stark deliver this time round. I sure hope so given this still occupies the biggest slice of my portfolio. GLA
J
Canmax are not selling shares. They told their shareholders they wouldn’t and also if they drop below a percentage they not only lose the offtake agreement but they also lose their man on the board.
Also, anyone thinking FM means prem/Zulu can sell to whoever they want is in for an unpleasant shock. Any SC6 is Canmax…. 100% until prepayment is repayed.
FM is due to the inability to produce SC6. Once they start producing, FM will have to be dropped. You can’t have your cake and eat it o the same way you can’t claim you can’t repay Canmax because you don’t have the ability to make SC6 whilst at the same time your selling SC6.
IIMO Canmax will contest and GR finds new offtaker. Ideally they put $40m prepayment on table to allow Prem to pay off Canmax + OPEX. Then new offtaker is payed back via SC6 only to reinvest monies as a prepayment in LI3.
Drop today was MM’s collecting shares + traders collecting their rewards for gambling at max fear. GLA
J