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I tell you what could happen here to put the power into Prems hands..... just not sign the new deal and call in 1b shares to raise capital to run the mine for a few months.
Canmax then have a decision to make.... Do they accept the reduced SC6 delivery forcast because they need the SC6, or do they pull the plug, knowing Prem will just pay them off as they have the shares to do so.
Could indeed be a very clever play from GR
J
Steward - i like this point and if was the case, i would have probably given abit more breathing space at £35m would only pay the loan + interest. No wiggle room after that to continue operations. However... It would add a WHOLE NEW LEVEL of risk into the scenario and for that reason (given history) i suggest we stick with Canmax. But fair point.
J
Good recovery yesterday. Will be very interesting when deal is announced to get the update on production rates and SC6%. I suspect there could be an update to the delivery forecast. In particular if the hydroclarifer has arrived on site prior to announcement. We could we an uplift from mid July/August after installation.
Holding steady, nice to see the blue again. Sill half-expecting to see a third party offer something up prior to the Canmax deal to tempt Prem away before contracts are signed. GLA
J
Lav - I think everyone is comfortable there are many millions of tonnes of Spod in the ground as the drilling proves this. Sure, they cant put a number on it, but there is clearly enough there to make a business case fly, especially with elevated SC6 prices. Regarding the SC%, im keen to understand this for obvious reasons. I take some comfort in the plant engineer talking about the final cleaning stages after the Mica float. He mentions that only 1 stage is required, but Prem have 3. Id like to think in this process enough impurities are removed to allow that % to increase.... but the numbers will tell.
J
As for the current SP - im not sure. The market valued Prem at 1p with an expectation for 4k per month from June + profits from SC6. Now we expect less tonnage + slightly less profit % from Hydroxide, BUT more stability. Also Prem wont be profitable for a good few months due to reduced output forecast. It will be interesting to see how the market values this.
J
Glad to see people are starting to understand the deal rather than claim Prem were getting 2 paychecks for 1 delivery of SC6. My view is that this offers Prem a bucket- load of stability at a time when they need it. However it will come at a cost of circa $3m profit per month for the life of the deal (based on what ive read so far). All things considered, i'd say its positive, as it will be the making of Prem and constant revenue + short term growth of Zulu.
As Prem become more stable and fund their own developments (circa 2025 onwards imo) Prem will be the team puling the levers, funding others & playing 'the big funder role' along with developing their own portfolio of projects.
This deal is not the perfect deal, but it will get Prem over the line of Explorer -> Stable Producer. From that position they will be in a position to make the perfect deals. Overall, I'm happy, just need to see the contract details, signature and some mine metrics. GLA
J
Acker- Who would want to buy a mine that is not in control of its finances. Canmax have locked in Prem potentially for good, so much so; that Prem can't ship SC6 to anyone else as the new contract potentially has indefinitely made Prem a solid part of their supply chain. Details need to be released upon signature, but i fear Canmax have played a blinder. I Always said there would be a cost to the deal, and fear the next rns now. I do hope GR isnt so desperate to have agreed to that.
J
Steward - Yes it does because this is the product Camax are ultimately paying for. For example, they would not write that they are giving Prem a pre-payment for the sale of their own hyroxide.
They are prepaying for the SC6, but it will be repayed via 50% hydroxide sales minus operational expenses (on both sides)
Again - its only my interpretation. Key question is - How profitable is Hydroxide refinement and how long does the deal last. If it is indefinite, i fear a bad deal as Prem will be paying for Starks poor work for the whole lifetime of zulu.
J
Roman - I would suggest the Hydoxide processing is not as profitable as Prems bit and therefore this is 'The Cost' of the new deal with Canmax. Note how it does not state anything about mine-gate payments.... this is because the Pre-Payment will sort all short term finance issues out and then the sale of Hydroxide profits will flow equally. From there, Prem pay off the loan and then make multi-millions profit.
J
Alert - if im reading it correctly, Canmax won't be buying SC6 from Prem. They will be taking SC6 off them, producing a Hydroxide with it and then selling it on to another company..... With the Sale money, Both companies will take their operational costs from that total and then split the profits. I have no idea how good the deal is, but Prem is safe and will make multi millions. We need to know how long the deal lasts AND how profitable Canmax's part of the production is (after costs)
J