Member Info for jammin86

The dividend is small but it's still 2%. And paying 6 consecutive dividends is proof of SOMETHING. They manage cashflow well.

They are now on the cusp of some serious money printing imo. That dividend will go up 10 fold in the coming years.

SHG is already paying a dividend, demonstrating delivery.

HUM needs to convince the market

One has about 120m net debt, the other has zero.

Debt matters when it comes to risk premia

If there wasn't all this risk the company would already be valued at 400m. Lol. Surely everyone knows that AIM is inherently risky and literally never a done deal??

I think SHG is an absolute steal at current prices, and I highly doubt you will get in below the current SP. They have zero net debt and are producing c100koz pa with a low AISC.

I bought into HUM, SHG and more recently, GDXJ (last week Friday when the gold price hit 1810).

Most insurers hold more than enough capital to deal with massive fall out from corporate bond defaults - trust me.

The problem is banks, as it was in 2008, since they seem to be encouraged to take on excessive risk that they do not understand. It also doesn't help them that the entire business model is predicated on a normal (uninverted) yield curve.

Actuaries work in insurers. Accountants in banks. Go figure why you issues in the banking sector

They hold the long end against even longer liabilities, so no drama there. I'm not suggesting insurers are risky, they're just underwhelming.

I work for one*

I can't believe anyone invests money in insurance companies tbh. I with for one and won't touch it with a barge pole.

Woefully inefficient as an ingrained way of operating, and surely sure to be innovated out of business in our lifetime.

I'm not sure I agree that the market has it right, since it frequently moves quite wildly in the absence of news. And in any case, what you're trying to do is be right BEFORE the market agrees with you - we all know that you ultimately need the market to agree with you to make money, but by that time the share price is already up!

Exactly. His bemusement is annoying/worrying because he can't seem to figure out what part of the update the market hated.

Reassuring. He does seem a bit taken aback by the market's response to the H1 results, which suggests he's clueless about market sentiment towards him/HUM. The wording in the RNS was unclear and we needed to infer issues at Kouroussa.

Unexpectedly raising capital is never good for a small cap commodity stock!

Yes, agreed. The peg failed

Are you kidding? Ending the gold standard was an admission that paper money had become detached from actual gold holdings, so there was a massive revision of the value of paper money. Ending the gold standard meant moving to fiat

The 2000% increase in the 70s was due to the end of the gold standard

This isn't the 1970s though, it's the 1940s... Inflation caused by government spending rather than excess lending.

The playbook is to let inflation rip to destroy the debt in real terms. But the Fed idiotically decided to fight inflation. Probably politically driven, but definitely a mistake.

Either way, the return to QE will cause biflation (the cantillon effect), with gold shooting up aggressively. That's my central macroeconomic assumption

I think you mean it looks priced as if there's a reasonable chance of going under, which is agree.

Things that are priced as going under are not worth £40m

Fair enough. 12-18 months sounds about right!

You're sure this will go to zero? Lol. That's not very encouraging.

Obviously some small number make it, I thought the hope was to pick one that does

Most small caps go to zero eventually...