Member Info for jammin86

Lol, disregarding everything you disagree with as TDS is classic MAGA garbage. He's a deranged malignant narcissist who is engaging in war crimes. Wake up

The situation in Iran was created by America 50 years ago. The notion of black and white good and evil is a fantasy. Trump literally threatened to eradicate an entire civilisation yesterday and you're here claiming they are good.

Look at what Israel is doing in Gaza, Lebanon etc.

Good guys? Really?

Look at what ICE is doing within America. It is a stretch to claim USA are the good guys. And Israel certainly aren't.

You are drinking Trump's Koolade if you think he won. Lol. Determining the winner is extremely simple: who controls the strait? Iran does. They can, at will, threaten to bomb tankers that pass through it.

It blows my mind that people still believe the things Trump says. Also blows my mind that people think USA are the good guys. They are the terrorists, end of story.

Iran still has veto power over the strait as far as I'm concerned. Trump backed down/chickened out, but Iran can absolutely turn the screw again if they want. Trump might claim victory but its the Iranians who won imo.

Gold fell $1000, there's an active war going on, the risk of a global recession is up considerably and EVERYTHING is being liquidated. Every single miner has sold off 30%-40%, this has absolutely nothing to do with MTL in particular.

We're 9 months away from first gold pour! Ignore the noise

That is a complete guess, nobody knows where it's going lol.

My humble opinion is to wait until the carnage is over and not attempt to buy the very bottom, which is an extremely expensive, albeit enticing, impulse.

The first and last eighths are the most expensive.

Gold is EXACTLY what you want to own at a time when trust is in a bear market and the economic world is going down the tubes.

Ignore the noise i.e. the initial decline in gold prices. War & rising oil are both inflationary, and importers are of oil are funding higher prices by selling UST = long yields are kicking up. The FED is about to lose its independence and slash rates into rising inflation, resulting in deeply negative real rates. Gold will fly imo. This is the best opportunity to buy the dip that we've had in years.

The welfare estate you speak of guarantees the insolvency of every western government silly enough to make promises it cannot possibly keep. In France, the average pensioner now earns more than the average worker. Unlike the 1940s, demographics are not on anyone's side today, with more and more old people and fewer and fewer workers. Nobody wants higher taxes and nobody wants a reduction in welfare benefits. Something has to give. Either goats default on their promises or they print more money and share the pain across everyone holding fiat.

Expect a ramp up in capital controls and surveillance.

Nope, the "problem" today is that a 40 year bull market in bonds had come to a shuddering halt as the system has finally accumulated too much debt. The biggest determinant of "wealth" has been the ability to access cheap debt - essential in a system of constant currency debasement (c7% pa). Debt is fine - until it isn't. Interest on US govt debt is now c3% of GDP, as 38tr of debt at c1% rolls over to 3.4% and climbing.

Fiat won't die overnight, but the pace of debasement can only increase from here. It's a multi-year/multi-decade trade. Everyone who can short fiat and buy real goods will get "wealthier" - at least when expressed in fiat-terms. Most people will get poorer.

I'm not suggesting that economic growth spurred by debt has been all bad - it accelerated our progress as a species. But the system is being pushed to its limits - or rather to its logical conclusion. Same thing happened to the Roman Empire, with the silver content of coins falling from 97% to 3% over 300 years. Empires don't last forever.

40 year is at 3.5%. 250% debt to GDP rolling over at much higher interest rates.

Most US govt debt is also domestically owned...

The real benefit of buying a house is that you get to short fiat in the process, in my opinion. I wanted the debt as much as I wanted the property.

My income is all fiat-denominated and isn't going up as quickly as inflation I have enough coming in each month to cover the transaction needs, the rest goes in gold/something hard.- anything but cash

Nobody is arguing that gold was a significantly better investment than a house! Both are hard assets and great alternatives to cash.

The point is that if you held the 160 or the 9500 to today, they'd be close to worthless relative to the hard assets they were once able to purchase.

DO NOT HOLD DOLLARS AS A STORE OF VALUE

Fiat is very useful to transact with, but absolutely awful to use as a store of value. Learn the difference - money has multiple uses!

By all means continue to use fiat to transact. But comments like "lidl didn't accept my gold" completely miss the point that money can/should also serve as a store of value. Dollars have lost 99% of their value in the last 50 years.

I reckon PAFs forward PE is more like 7 actually, Earnings are going to triple.

some people spend all their time focusing on the gold price and none considering the existential risks facing a company, which is absurd.

this is my biggest holding, i've been here since 4p, and i watched as you *****ed and moaned after the merger took place, surrey. talk about fart in the wind...

Disagree completely. If you're comfortable that gold is going to remain high (I am), then the main risk facing the company IS GEOPOLITICAL. I don't mean that the probability of an adverse outcome is huge, but the impact of an adverse outcome is very big. And I tink the probability has definitely gone up over the weekend.

I'm not suggesting this has become worthless overnight, but it is absolutely the key risk facing MTL (I am assuming the operational aspects are lower risk because the company has proved themselves on that front).

The geopolitical risk is enormous though, if something goes tits up in Nicaragua, MTL is dead in the water - at least La India is. As with all small ap gold miners, that's the biggest existential risk, and why they routinely have pathetically low PEs.

It could be a great opportunity to buy cheap shares... I'm not buying any though, this definitely has me spooked.

AIM is truly awful, decades of manipulation and shareholders being shafted means the few good stocks on AIM never achieve true value. You have to move to another exchange to unlock value.