Member Info for jammin86

They have no choice but to keep printing. As Lyn Alden says, nothing stops this train. Looking forward to deficits of 9% of GDP in a few years, rivalling those incurred during covid. Currently 37tr at 3.2% average, in a year that'll be 39tr at 3.7% average. Exponential growth in interest expense is just about kicking in.

Game over for fake fiat money

Na, not hitting 10p... yet!

Love everyone's guesswork on where gold is going in the short term. Zoom out, trend is clear. History is also fairly clear - gold goes up when currencies are debased.

Ignore the noise

Gold is doing very well though. Out performing the S&P this year...

"gold could drop a lot". Yeah, sure. Anything "could" happen. So it's about assigning probabilities. Given where US debt and yields are at I find it very hard to see gold falling. Lots of central banks will buy into dips.

Maths ain't* mathing

FCF might not equal earnings but it's fairly close. If the PE was 29 the market cap would be 250m*4*29, which is 29bn Australian dollars. Your maths adult mathing and you talk down to people as if THEY'RE the idiots. Lol

Yeah, I saw that trumps going to cut taxes by 4tr which is sheer insanity. DOGE was never about reducing the deficit, it was a front for getting rid of things trump didn't like. There is no intention whatsoever to balance the budget

It's like watching a train crash in slow motion lol. There are only two options to deal with debt at these levels, with interest on that debt requiring at least 1tr of additional borrowing every year. Either you default nominally or you default in real terms. There's no way they'll default nominally, so they'll spread the pain over all dollar holders via inflating the debt away. Looks obvious to me

I don't get it though... So you don't own physical gold, you own some tokenized version. How is that any different to owning a derivative? If you don't have physical possession the gold isn't really yours, is it?

Speculation is about timing. If you believe, as I do, that high gold prices are here to stay, then a simple DCA approach to buying gold stocks can work very well.

It's worked extremely well for me, but admittedly I started buying when gold hit 1800, 18 months ago.

Gold producers have massively lagged the increase in gold prices, the big rerate is still coming

Bear*

So suddenly we're in a near market for gold? Someone tell the Chinese age central bankers who keep buying!

Maybe zoom out a little on the gold chart!

Also please explain how massive debt, big tax cuts and budget deficits, and high treasury yields won't ultimately lead to monetisation of that debt and inflation. Can you?

What are you saying? The top was in a while ago bro!

Nevermind, it's even higher: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/interest-expense-avg-interest-rates/

Average rates are 3.3% and going higher. There's no way out of the debt hole other than deeply negative real rates for a decade. Slash rates, print money, inflate the debt away, and screw all dollar holders in the process

US interest on govt debt is closer to $1tr a year actually. About 37tr debt at an average yield of 2.7%, which will increase when longer term debt matures and is rolled over at higher rates. Why do you think trump is so desperate for Powell to cut rates? His tax cuts will blow out the deficit at a time when interest expense is about to become the biggest single expense item.

It's giving 3rd world emerging market!

Yup, we NEED gold to consolidate around 3200. We do NOT need hype, bubble, crash. Most goldies including THX are making huge FCF at current prices, eventually share prices will reflect that

I agree that garden variety politicians got us here and something needs to change. But I think this "global monetary reset" (to somehow get rid of all the public debt) will require massive inflation and negative real rates, with gold going MUCH higher.

Borrowers (like the US govt) have two options: default nominally or default in real terms. Defaulting nominally would mean bond holders get screwed, defaulting in real terms ("inflating the debt away") would mean the cost is spread over everyone holding dollars. They cannot afford to default nominally because they'd lose all credibility, so I think they'll default in real terms. Trump putting pressure on the fed to cut rates is the beginning of this imo. We'll see loose monetary policy in the face of rising inflation

If the average Joe wants gold then it won't get to 2000 lol. You can't assume there's demand out there but assume the price will fall to a level where there's no supply available. That's simply not how markets work lol

Are we really going to close our eyes and pretend that trumps unpredictability is garden variety / the norm? Not having it, sorry. He's more aggressive, and has a bigger ego, than Biden, for a start.

My point was very simple - he's here for 3.5 more years and nobody is going to trust him going forwards. Yes, they'll sign trade deals, but they'll also seek to diversify away from the dollar/treasuries. It's already happening