Member Info for JamesOxford

@PJT12 Agree Long term Share Holders should not sell at the moment. Capita should recover over time - but it's definately not a quick fix, it's a long road ahead.

@Aimless - another wild prediction now it will 'rise' to 17p? Good grief.

@Trisor - Capita down far more than market (as was the case on Friday).

@PJT12 Take a close look at Capita's financials, outlook and competition with an unbiased view. I noted only two brief examples, meek profits boosted by business sales and revenues down. DYOR.

@Rest of Capita's fan club - best of luck, sincerely.

The Capita Fan Club is in full swing here... It is obvious Capita is in turnaround mode. However, the market is not stupid and Capita will most likely continue to fall to circa 14-16p, which is a fair reflection of where it is at. To say otherwise at this early stage is fool hardy. You can lead a horse to water...

@NorthernMagic: 'I will anticipate Zephyr Energy's sp being closer to 10p than 5p. All imho and time will tell'.

Zephyr's share price is currently 4.25p. With an expected quality RNS due mid-late August 2024; a share price rise to initially settle between 5.5p to 7.5p is anticipated. In addition, Zephyr's discussions with partners and investors are already well underway. Therefore, Zephyr share price has clear potential to move signifiantly upwards (well beyond 7.5p) once these discussions and negotiations have been agreed, concluded and signed-off between the parties. IMO & DYOR

AimMaster2018 (aka Founder & Chairperson of the 'Capita Fan Club') confidently predicated (demanded, then begged, then pleaded...) throughout Friday 2 August that Capita's share price would close higher at 23p. However, Capita's share price opened at 18.80p, and closed at 16.74p down 12.45% for the day. It seems when Aimless and his fan club cheer the Capita share price on it tanks.

Although, a few (Capita Fan Club members?) on this discussion board seem to suggest that Capita's share price was hammered as a result of the US markets on Friday, this was far from the case. Indeed, had Capita produced strong results the share price would have risen. The market is not stupid.

Capita's share price (18.80p) in the lead up to the announcement of Capita's results on Friday was over-cooked, and this rise was based mainly on speculation. The higher the rise, the bigger the fall.

As predicted, the results were always likely to be somewhat mixed, but also measuredly optimistic for the future. The fact is that Capita's results were not brilliant and therefore never warranted a share price rise. For example, most of the profit were made as a direct result of business sales, and revenues were down. That said, Capita's results (and share price drop) could have been far worse...and would have been if not for timely business sales to help prop up the profit.

Capita's share price may well drop further on Monday 5 August and be a bumpy ride for at least a week.

Without doubt, AH and co have many more difficuilt decisions to make, and must continue to win the hearts and minds of all stakeholders and shareholders. Capita is clearly weighted far more towards long term share holders who are happy to hold, as the road to recovery will be bumpy and the journey long.

All IMO & DYOR

@AimMaster2018 'Well be in green soon Imho'

Thought you went very quiet since the market opened. Your boundless optimism for Capita knows no bounds! You should start a 'Capita Fan Club' (by the looks of it you already have started to recruit a few members on this board).

As predicted, the drop in Capita's share price today is no surprise. The fact is tat Capita will not be an overnight success, it is a looonnnggg road to recovery.

@AimMaster2018 You optimism is noted...again, and again, and again...zzzzz. Ho hum.

@AimMaster2018 Your unbridled optimism is for Capita is clearly noted.

Mixed results today - not brilliant for Capita. Serco announced broadly similar results and outlook (although different numbers obviously) yesterday and the share price dropped significantly. Expect a similar drop in percentage terms for Capita today. Capita share price could be rocky over the next week or so.

Shell has firmly placed a 'stake in the ground' ahead of discussions with UK Govt in the near future. This article says it all about Shell's current attitude towards productions/operations of O&G in NS (unwind), their focus on overseas investment in O&G (increased substantially), and their attitude towards green energy (unprofitable)...

https://uk.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/shell-underlines-uk-and-greening-no-longer-the-priority-3625103

If the UK Govt does not want to support NS O&G operators, why should NS O&G operators continue to produce O&G in the NS and thereby support the UK Govt with production/output for the UK economy - and be penalised with a WF tax of 78%? The UK Govt is too inexperienced to understand the basics of balance between politics (and the green movement) and the reality that NS O&G production and its security is paramount to the growth of the UK economy. It has to work both ways.

The UK Govt will have to meet with NS O&G operators soon and negotiate a compromise that works for NS operators to avoid a catastrophe and to protect over 200,000 workers in the industry.

If the UK Govt refuses to compromise then the small handful of law-breaking 'Just Stop Oil' fools will be happy, and it will be very dark times for the NS O&G industry and the UK economy.

As discussions with other companies continue (possible Joint Venture, part buy-out or similar) CH cannot say much at all as Non Disclosure Agreement would have been signed by all parties. When agreed and signed off, the news will be announced. Worth the wait for the quality RNS due mid-late August and thereafter. Future looks bright here. IMO & DYOR

@MTucker CH would not be bothered by Zephyr's share price.

The share price is irrelevant to Zephyr's medium-long term goals. The share price only matters if Zephyr needs to issue shares to raise capital, which is not required (CH stated in the interview there is plenty of cash); or to keep investors happy. The short term share price is irrelevent, as investors will reap the rewards regardless.

Also it is probable that Zephyr is in early discussions with other companies (CH alluded to this in the interview) perhaps as a JV, and if this is the case, then no doubt NDAs have been signed. This means of course that CH (nor anyone else involved) can discuss negotiations, legal matters etc. until finalised.

Best to wait for the quality RNS due mid-late August and thereafter.

IMO & DYOR

@couerdelion 'James, that's a very optimistic view IMO. I don't think it is politically tenable for Reeves to be reducing tax on oil companies any more than it is likely she will do it for banks.'

Disagree. Do you think a massive 78% headline tax is sustainable for any industry, company, stakeholders or investors?

The fact is that the majority of oil and gas companies made huge profits recently, during the 'cost of living crisis'. This meant that the UK Govt had to implement tax rises under the Energy Levy and will continue to do so until such time that oil and gas prices fall back to more normalised levels (which they have started to do). The UK Govt have used the carrot and stick method in order to try to reduce oil and gas prices.

As stated previously, this is not a 'forever tax'. No tax rate is 'fixed' forever. The oil and gas companies who operate in the North Sea will lobby the UK Govt who will need to compromise somewhat. For example, on the headline tax rate of 78% (unlikley), and/or reduced oil and gas price thresholds (i.e. price per barrel of oil and price per therm of gas - to better reflect today's markets and worldwide issues (likely) in order to reduce the headline tax of 78%, and/or implement fair and resonable capital tax allowances to enable oil and gas companies to continue to invest capital in the industry (likely). As per the publication, the UK Govt has stated will meet with the stakeholders to discuss further prior to the budget.

The UK Govt have 'fired a broadside', however, they will need to compromise somewhat in order to retain the all important oil and gas production and security in the North Sea. No doubt the necessary adjustments will be made in time for the budget announcement/release. IMO & DYOR

@ Megal 'Increasing the tax rate & removing the investment allowance against the EPL is unwelcome, but expected given it was in the manifesto.'

You are correct. The Policy Paper: Changes to the Energy (Oil & Gas) Profits Levy released 29 July 2024 was in line with Labour's earlier announcement i.e. headline tax increased to 78%.

However, this is not a 'forever tax'. Please refer to 'Energy Profits Levy: Energy Security Investment Mechanism', published 6 March 2024. Click on link below. In summary: "The Energy Profits Levy is a temporary tax on the exceptional profits of oil and gas companies who operate in the North Sea. This measure provides for the Energy Investment Security Mechanism (ESIM). It will end the Energy Profits Levy early if the 6-month average price for both oil and gas is at or below the ESIM threshold prices. The ESIM threshold prices are USD$71.40 per barrel for oil and £0.54 per therm for gas. These thresholds are based on a 20-year average to the end of 2022. These thresholds will be adjusted from 1 April 2024, and annually thereafter, by the preceding December’s Consumer Prices Index figure".

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/energy-profits-levy-energy-security-investment-mechanism-legislation#:~:text=Details,below%20the%20ESIM%20threshold%20prices

Serica's share price has already been heavily discounted to reflect the new tax rate from 75% to 78%. In addition, Serica has already made it very clear that they will look to invest overseas as a first preference, rather than the UK. It is likley that Serica and other oil & gas companies will lobby the UK Govt for a more fair tax rate as oil and gas prices have reduced. Confidence in Serica is very high.

IMO & DYOR

To confirm, there was no spike in Prudential Plc's share price to £8.50p at any time on Friday 26 July 2024. This share price closed at £6.85p on Friday 26 July 2024 at the London Stock Exchange.

Prudential Plc has now reached the bottom of the cycle in terms of share price, which commenced on 2 May 2023 (£11.95) and continued until 26 July 2024 (£6.85p).

This share price is set to rise from Monday 29 July 2024 onwards due to several positive factors - a few of which have been mentioned in the media and elsewhere shuch as strong capital and profits, generous share buy back of USD$2 billion, expansion/exposure into China (5.2% GDP in 2023 and 1.4097 billion people in 2023) as well as other Asian and African countries, strong growth plans/prospects between now and at least 2027, recent director share buys.

More positive news to follow over the next 3-12 months, includes of course the Half Year Results and Dividend Declaration Date and Amount (announced soon i.e. towards/at the end of August 2024)

Prudential Plc is now a buy from 29 July 2024 onwards.

IMO & DYOR

@NewKOTB. Me...a US Trader, Blackrock or BoT?

Nope. I know what I know.

The bottom of the downhill slide (which started 2 September 2022) was hit yesterday (25 July 2024). As stated/proven in my previous post, Serica's share price will rise from today 26 July, and continue the hike upwards from next week onwards. Sit back, and enjoy the rise.

All IMO and DYOR of course.

Recent Serica share price down due to a few factors, which include: FTSE 100 hit 3 month lows driven primarily by US sell off due to several factors includes political and certain company (a few) negative updates, so naturally FTSE 250 and AIM adversely affected also which has driven down share prices. Green shoots of recovery in FTSE 100 towards close of business on 25 July as bargain hunters seek to buy, which should flow into FTSE 250 and AIM. In addition, Serica (and several other North Sea Oil & Gas companies) have had their share price adversely impacted from the noise around recent announcement of 'UK Govt Green Energy Plan'. This noise will quiet down soon.

The above does not change the fact that Serica is one of top 10 producers in North Sea, and has strong fundamentals (includes profit and balance sheet), very generous dividend returns, recently bought 100% of Tailwind Energy Investments (as a consequence producing fields increase from 5 to 11), and plans to further expand into overseas operations.

Expectation is for Serica's share price to increase from current lows possibly as soon as Friday 26 July, with bounce back from Monday 29 July onwards.

All IMO & DYOR

When Capita announced the sale of Capital One on 10 July, it was very well supported with an imediate and dramatic increase in the share price. However, with the uncertainty of the results due to be reported in August, it is natural for the market to sell (profit take) and reduce the share price to more sustainable levels prior to the results in August.

IMO the share price could very well continue to slide and then settle around 17.9 to 18.25p prior to the results in August. The results are very likely to be somewhat mixed, but also measuredly optimistic for the future. This should keep short and long term share holders reasonably happy to maintain a hold or buy over the next 12 months.

Based on the initial test results and future prospects, this share price should increase significantly from today onwards. IMO the next scheduled test/results in mid-August should be very favourable also.

@ Blissfull 'Over the next two weeks, the well will be flowed and production tested to more rigorously determine the reservoir pressure, fluid composition, well flow rate and bulk reservoir permeability, and to deliver an early estimate of the overall potential recoverable resources.'

With regards to Zephyr's key statement (quote) '...to more rigorously determine...'. This appears to demonstrate early confidence in the well. Definately a hold or buy late this afternoon in anticipation of positive results Tuesday or Wednesday.