Member Info for JamesOxford

@Trenners. To answer your question: Yes I am involved with medium-large companies that have been in similar situations as Capita. I have been across far too many business plans, cash-flow forecasts etc to count. AH is still very early in his tenure as CEO and he would be aware he has significant challenges ahead and much work to do. In comparison to JL (former CEO), AH's report card would read: 'Very good'. However, the CEO alone cannot turn the company around and AH would be very aware of that. I could outline how I would turn Capita around, but I have been accused of 'writing a book' (amoung other things) with one of my posts here, so my summary would be wasted here.

As a private investor, I typically invest £100-£250K per transaction in companies based on my own investment criteria. Therefore, I remain curious as to why other management besides AH and PA (who has not even started with Capita yet) have not bought shares recently in order to show confidence in AH and the future direction of Capita. Such investment would clearly demonstrate to the broader market (and long-term share holders on this board), and most importantly to other stakeholders such as banks/funders, and large institutional investors in Capita that the ship has indeed started to turn. If other management do not invest, what do they know that is of concern? Is this a possible red flag?

Good points made here. As we know Zephyr is in talks/negotiations with investors, participants and/or JV partners. Any of these will want some part of the Zephyr pie in some way shape or form in return for their investment in expertise, cash, resources in terms of personnel equipment and assets, and routes to market. This 'sharing of the pie' should not be seen a negative. It's better to have a smaller percentage of a company that is producing, profitable and works in partnersip with stakeholders; than have a larger percentage of a struggling company.

@Iwonttell hopefully you have at least a couple more decades left - take care of yourself, and you can relax about Zephry - it has significant potential/upside in the very near future.

Good leap in Capita's share price today against the broader market. Can be put down to the 'following the leader' methodology i.e. RNS announcement that Adolfo (vested) and Pablo (bought) acquired shares, so shares must be great value. Oldest trick in the book, but it almost always works - especially when two or more in management acquire shares in very quick succession.

To me Capita's share price can best be described as a market 'play-thing' - kind of like like a cat toying with a half-dead mouse. Its clear that Capita's banks/funders are very concerned by the low market capitalisation, reduced revenues and small profits - and have been for a while, hence the severe pressure on Capita to sell assets (such as the 'surpise sale' of Capital One to reduce debt and cut the banks/funders exposure). This is why Adolfo and Pablo (and others in management) need to acquire shares and hope the market 'follows the leader' to raise the share price and lift the market capitalisation to acceptable levels. It is of course a very long road with lots of bumps (cat with mouse) to achieve this aim.

I have a question Simpiles (seems to be a current or ex-employee of Capita?): Do you think the rest of Capita's management share Adolfo's vision and future plans? If yes, then why have more management not bought shares to demonstrate to the market their support and confidence in Capita...especially as the share price is at these levels?

@Iwonttell - Just the tip of the iceberge - more to come.

@Gruyere - Agreed. To add, I think the share price will move up towards or at end of August after the next RNS update. I can't find another similar sized company in the O&G industry that has as much potential upside as here.

@NoExcuses. The market is always right and to say otherwise is ridiculous. That said, markets can become over excited and that is the real opportunity. It's how you read and interpret company financials, plus updates etc. that matters and provide assurity with investments.

It is funny how the Capita fan club believe I must be anti-Capita or a short seller. I do see opportunity here. However, this is a lllooonnnggg turn around with plenty of bumps along the way. I'm an investor, not a gambler, so will wait for the next set of financials which will show more detail and reveal trends.

Better profits than analysts (and myself) expected. Dividend raised to 6p. Good result and update. If share price dips will buy more prior to ex dividend date on 22 August.

@PJT12 Do you suggest that Richard/Harwood Capital always picks winners? No losers, ever? Really? Do you consider that Hardwood Capital is a big player in the investment banking world? DYOR.

@Simpiles The current share price is a sensible valuation. You may disagree. However, the market says so and the market is ALWAYS right. IMO.

@JG68 Fair points in the main. However, I would add with regards to the 'surprise' sale of Capita One...was it a surprise or was it a required asset sale in order to reduce debt demanded by Capita's banks/funders who were uncomfortable with their level of exposure? And if so, why were they uncomfortable? Take a closer look and ask hard questions. DYOR. FYI. To be clear, I have never suggested the share price should be 5-6p under any circumstances.

As already stated, I am not anti-Capita and there is some potential here, however, there are clear concerns in a number of areas. To state the obvious, revenues are down (again) and profits are meek, boosted by asset sales. Sustainable revenues, margins and profits are fundamental to any company, and a requirment by their lenders. It is prudent to wait for the next RNS or two (trading update/results) in order to determine if there are positive trends in these and/or certain KPIs (to offset falling revenues and low profits) prior to investment.

I find the discussion boards of interest from time to time and I recently opend an account with LSE and even more recently started to participate with my views on various companies. I am not interested in a 'war of words' here or anywhere else. Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, and everyone has their own level of investment risk.

I have noticed that on this Capita discussion board, that when someone posts anything but praise for Capita, the Capita fan club comes down on them with a sledge hammer. I can only put it down to the Capita fan club must be full of disgruntled long-term shareholders who have negative share positions in Capita, and who will only support 'share rampers' on this discussion board to help boost the share price; and in the process, shut out any balanced opinions that may vary from their own. IMO I am not the one with an agenda.

@Kipper. I agree turnarounds can be profitable...or a disaster. You mention Rolls Royce, but you don't mention the turnarounds that never made it and instead declared bankruptcy, went private etc. of which there are many.

Now, I am not saying Capita will not be turned around, bit due dligence should always be in play. Most successful investors look for strong, profitable companies with clear growth prospects. Rather than rely on turnaround projects, which is never easy. IMO

@GoCPI I have no agenda. I do not work for any 'shorting firm'. I have no need or desire to short or support any shorters. I am a private investor, period. To suggest otherwise says more about your character ('GoCPI'...the name says it all really) than mine.

To the Capita fan club - to be absolutely clear I am not anti-Capita. Far from it. I do see an opportunity, but not yet - not with falling revenues, a high cost base, high competition and many other issues/factors. Please feel free to re-read my previous post. I believe it to be an unbiased, albiet very, very brief review of Capita. It may not be want you like to read, however, for me, it is a fair and reasonable assessment of Capita at this point time.

The recent history of Capita's share price i.e. 12-14p March to July 2024 was fair. The Capita One sale boosted the share price from circa 13p to 21p (over-bought) from July to August. However, Capita's results were as expected, but in the main far too lack-lusture to excite the market (for example, profits were clearly boosted by asset sales). As a result the share price as predicted dropped accordingly, and has now settled at circa 16p.

To clarrify, I mentioned Capita's share price of 14p-16p as a range which covers the worst days (14p on bad news) and 16p (average). However, it could rise further on positive news, and no doubt will when Capita One's sale is agreed and the funds have been banked. However, there is much to do to turn this ship around, and until the next trading update and/or results are released, I do not believe the share price warrants too much of a rise or fall from current levels i.e. circa 16p as the Capita One sale has already been 'baked in'.

The road to success is never straight nor smooth. Hopefully, the next update will be favourable (proof in always in the pudding) and if so, the market will react positively. Until then, I (like many others) will keep Capita on my watch list.

PS. To GoCPI and the rest of the Capita fan club: If I am so far off the mark with my view on Capita, why is Capita's share price at 16.34p today? Do you believe the market is wrong or stupid, and only you are right? If so, I suggest you read the short story 'The Emperor's New Clothes' and reflect.

@Anti_venom 'sold out at £1.25 for a lucrative trade'. Not very insightful. Seems a low point to sell - not much of a 'lucrative trade'. Your report card at High School would read: 'Could do better'.

Expect JD Sports to rise substantially over next 12 months based on several well documented factors. IMO

@Setanta1 Zephry's share price is not being managed by the company or it's broker.

@papaduke The market will increase Zephyr's share price when it has positive news i.e. RNS due mid-late August and thereafter. A few investors will buy early in anticipation of positive results (speculators, risk-takers, early adopters, and experienced investors). However, the vast majority of investors will wait for confirmation of results and join in the rush to buy at that time. Do not expect miracles papduke - if you personally are disatisfied with the current share price, then simply sell and move on. Personally, I would be very happy to buy should the share price drop further in anticipation of the road ahead.

Initailly added to portfolio 5 March 2024. Now topped up further.

@Phuketpunter2: JD Sports should announce Q2 Trading Update towards/at end August 2024. Actual date TBC.

JD Sports oversold on Friday and Monday and now very cheap at £1.20. With recent acquistions in USA and elsewhere - future combined revenues and profits look strong. Retail sales up in UK - nice lead in to Christmas. Added to portfolio. IMO & DYOR

Capita is in turnaround mode, which is not desirable to most investors. There has been a lot of talk at Capita about the introduction of AI, and while this is of merit, it will take far more than the introduction of AI to turnaround Capita.

Capita's recent results showed that a large portion of profits was due to business sales, which is far from ideal. If Capita's next set of results show further improvement based on operational profits (rather than asset sales), then Capita's share price should rise. In the meantime, Capita's share price should contimue to hover around 14-16p (14p as a low on a very bad day - for example Capita loses a major contract or other negative announcement) and this range is a fair reflection of where Capita is at today.

There are several other bargin opportunities on the LSE at the moment due to the sell-off on Friday and Monday. However, Capita is on my watch list for the next set of results - the proof (as always) is in the pudding.

ALL IMO & DYOR

Prudential - like certain other companies - share price oversold on Friday and Monday and very cheap at £6.30p. Prudential is in clear waters in terms of market space available (China and other countries in Asia). Management has clear strategy, is reliable and competent. Buyback in progress (USD$2 billion) and dividend payment assurred. Sound investment. Added to portfolio. IMO & DYOR

BT - like certain other companies - share price oversold on Friday and Monday. For some companies share prices corrected, but not BT - it was oversold in the panic. BT Management steady and competent. BT is backed by several large institutions and telecommuication stakeholders and investors. Dividend payment assurred. Sound investment. Added to portfolio. IMO & DYOR

Legal & General's share price oversold on Friday and Monday so now offers nice value at £2.15. Dividend payment assurred. Future bright here. Added to portfolio. IMO & DYOR

Reported retail sales up. Momentum should build into Christmas season. Halford's financials sound. Halford's share price oversold on Friday and Monday so now near all time lows at £1.43p. Dividend payment of 5p due soon (ex-dividend date 8 August 2024, payment date 13 September 2024). Too good an opportunity to pass up. Added to portfolio. IMO & DYOR

This article (link below) provides a brief summary of Zephry's potential and current operations. Zephry is a well run company with clear upside in the near future.

Zephry's current share price of circa 4-5p is irrelevant. As mentioned previously, expect an uptick in share price after RNS announcement due mid-late August i.e. hare price to rise and settle circa 5.5-7.5p. However, the massive spike in share price will be after this and will reward all stakeholders and shareholders alike. Worth the wait - momentum is building. IMO & DYOR

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1053445/zephyr-energy-s-transformation-is-far-from-done-investors-are-looking-forward-to-key-paradox-catalysts-1053445.html

@PJT12 Thanks for the compliment i.e. that you think of me as 'a considered investor'. I only recently started to comment on this website's board (when time and inclination allows). I had hoped that my views would be considered by others, even if unpopular with some. As background, I have worked in senior management positions in global banks for over 30 years, but will say no more than that. I always hold an unbiased view based on research and do not allow my opinion to be clouded by 'noise' (for example by whether or not I like a company's management). For me this detached approach is the only proper way to value companies for investment purposes - it has served me very well over the years as a private investor.