Member Info for JamesOxford

@Capitalizer. I check in occasionally (some days a few times a day). It doesn't take much time for a quick read and maybe a comment here or there. Some of the characters here are quite fun. I have no agenda. I may well invest in Capita at some point, hence my interest here.

@Gotnorolex. I don't think it's right for me to mention my investment portforlio on this board.

@ GoCPI (aka founder of the Capita Fan Club). I love how GoCPI trys to character-assasinate anyone who has a different opinion or insight, which is different from his/her own. It says it all in your name...right GoCPI?!

@NoFear I am 55 years (hopefully not too old). I have made my reasons known for my non-investment in Capita. If this changes, I'll be happy to let you know. That aside, credit to you and your shepherd's crook for finally slamming down hard on the Capita 'buy' button.

The RNS due in late August will be positive (i.e. Capita One sale completed), but I cannot see any material change to these details to warrant an investment from me. At the moment, there are too many opportunities elsewhere on the LSE which offer far better results and returns over the medium-long term. I have nothing against Capita or any shareholders here and wish you all the very best. Hopefully the rally lasts and doesn't retract too soon before/after the RNS announcement is made.

Centric's share buybacks (and subsequent cancellation of shares prurchased) benefits the company and shareholders. In summary, it means there are less shares in circulation, so the company pays less in dividends. Better for cash-flow and further invesments. In normal trading circumstances, the buybacks should help boost the share price by the percentage of the share buyback. Share buybacks benefits shareholders in the medium-long term.

I added Centrica to my investment portfolio today at circa £1.25 based on strong company fundamentals across key areas, as well as certain macro industry events. EG increases in energy prices caps due from October circa 9%, which should benefit companies like Capita. The share price looks quite cheap at this current level, so may well add further over the next month or two.

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1054640/energy-prices-set-for-9-hike-ahead-of-colder-months-1054640.html

Over 40 O&G companies sent the open letter to the UK Govt to object to the increase to the windfall tax to 78% (in place until 2030) and the removal of the investment allowance and the reduction in capital allowances. Stupidly high taxes, lack of incentives to invest, and thousands of specialist jobs at risk...

The O&G industry has collectively spoken loudly and clearly (and quite rightly) against the new UK Govt's stupid O&G policies in the North Sea. Now the UK Govt needs to listen and negotiate soon before its too late. If not, then this could spell disaster for the UK Govt and the UK economy at large.

@Trisor. No I've not invested in Capita as yet. I've added to my position in JD Sports in the last few days in the lead up to the trading update, which was a good TU (share price rose accordingly today). I'll be happy to announce if/when I invest in Capita though, and my reasons for investment.

@NoFear You've finally knocked your nickname Fearful out of the ball park (well out of the ball pit anyway) with your £13,300 Capita buy! You don't need to sell the sheep farm and become a chicken famer after all.

Now for the nervous wait...

@JD88 'And @James: the forward guidance doesn't include Hibbett'

Yes that is exactly my point.i.e. management maintains forward guidence excludes Hibbett. The fact is that Hibbett will be fully bedded in by the time the next results are due. With the addition of Hibbett and the peak Christmas season fast approaching, JD Sports should exceed forward guidence by a considerable amount.

@Pike71 'The chart beyond 2 weeks looks awful, what makes you think is on a reverse course?'

Prudential's share price is on the up for many reasons (mentioned in my previous posts). Prudential's low was £6.13 on 5 August. Prudential's share price has steadily increased since - almost on a daily basis (even in the face of adverse macro news over this period) - and is currently circa £6.71 as of now Thursday 22 August (LSE). The upwards trend is now firmly set. In addition, August is traditionally a quiet month in terms of volume of shares traded on the LSE, this upward trend will most likely step up a gear when volumes start to increase from late August onwards. In the meantime, looking forward to Prudential's results on 28 August.

IMO & DYOR

As predicted, JD Sports announced a strong Trading Update with sales up and margin virtually fully retained over a competitive period. UK sales down (as predicted by management), however, other areas made up for this.

Of note management announced that forward guidence is maintained. I view this as somewhat conservative given that Hibbett will be fully bedded in by the time the next results are due. With Hibbett (US sales strong in this sector) and the peak Christmas season fast approaching, JD Sports should be ahead of management's forward guidence.

No doubt stockbroker Deutsche Numis will be somewhat sheepish after it downgraded JD Sports (and helped cause the share price to drop by 5% to £1.19 on 12 August). This stockbroker clearly does not understand the JD Sports business model and/or its growth strategy.

I have been invested in Mobico since late June 2024 to date. The signs were there that the results today would be positive and the share price has risen well. However, this increase is from a very low share price, so the upside could be considerable from here.

I would exercise some caustion however, as on occasions Mobico management have made predictions on expected revenues and profits, and then not achieved them. On occasions, management may not hit expectations, due to several factors. EG wage hikes, fuel increases, lost contracts, poor weather etc. However, management must allow for such 'unforseen' circumstances and manage expectations accordingly i.e. err on the side of caution.

The next set of results 'should' be fine, however, these will need to come in at or above management's own expectations in order for the market to have confidence in Mobico into the future. i.e. consistency in reported results matching/exceeding management expectations is key.

On another note, I cannot see the US operations being sold for £1 billion - not with the US market the way it currently is. However, even if it is sold for less that this, it will be cash in the bank, and more importantantly an exit from the US market. This cash can then be used to pay down debt, increase cash in hand, and perhaps contribute towards a share buyback of sorts (rather than a special dividend).

IMO & DYOR

Fearful - Yesterday and early AM today, I told you...over and over...to whack that Capita 'buy' button with your shepherd's stick. Now look, you've missed today's mid-AM to late PM rally!

Are you really a self-proclaimed day trader or a sheep farmer? If you don't buy Capita tomorrow come what may, then sell your sheep farm and become a chicken farmer instead.

@duffs55 - thanks for the link to the presentation and slides. Very much appreciated.

For anyone who missed it, click on the links below. I watched the slides and clicked through while listening to CH's presentation. The introduction to CH was very positive. As a senior banker who has listened to several hundred investment proposals/presentations, I found CH's presentation to be highly credible, understated, and very informative (especially given his allocation of 15 minutes), which covered Zephyr's background/history right through to current developments. CH talked and the Paradox Basin and summarised that "...any of these wells have the ability to double our production almost overnight". That is a very poweful statement.

CH has focus in the right areas - and he clearly explained his rationale. It is obvious that Zephyr can self-fund through its own existing production/cash-flows (no need to dilute shareholders - including management's own circa 10% share ownership), however, CH knows investment either directly or under JV or similar is the best route to fast-track developments, production and results.

After CH's presentation and slides, as an investor, I am even more confident than before that the future looks very bright here. Zephyr's share price fluctuations do not matter to me - whether it's 2p or 10p - it's all background noise. Zephyr's potential is massive and in time, its share price will reflect the same. IMO & DYOR

PDF slides:

https://enercomdenver.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/Zephyr-EnerCom-24-V12-FINAL.pdf

Live-stream video presentation:

https://video.ibm.com/recorded/133900238

In addition to the Trading Update due tomorrow 22 August...

It will be of interest as to whether or not JD Sports provides any updates/news on their agreement to buy France's Courir for EURO520 million. Or maybe this will be saved for another day.

I first invested into Prudential at £6.30 on 6 August (see my post on same date for reasons for investment). I called this share price at or near low at the time of my investment (low was actually £6.13 on 5 August) and therefore added to my investment portfolio. I am pleased to see Prudential's share price rise steadily since then to £6.62 as of today (up another 1.29% today on LSE). It looks like the 'small-steps upward trend' is firmly set - this is the best type of share trend...no sudden jumps, which tends to attracts medium-long term investors (rather than day-traders). The next initial share price target to be achieved is £7.00. I expect this to be achieved prior to or very shortly after Prudential's results due next week Wednesday 28 August.

I like Prudential and the markets in which it operates. My personal investment timeline for Prudential is minimum 5 years, which enables benefits from growth in share price, buybacks, dividends and special dividends. I have no doubt this share will continue to rise (maybe a few bumps on the way due to macro world events). Based on further in-depth research into Prudential, I expect this share price to double sooner than expected.

IMO & DYOR

@Kipper @Lordy @Trisor I have tried to have the Fearful one invest so he can either put up or shut up about the daily share price entry points...and 'will I, won't I' buy narrative. As for Aim's contant daily predictions....enough said.

NoFear - Haven't you pressed the Capita 'buy' button yet? Just checked and can see there has only been 22 trades since open today. Hardly any volume. The rally yesterday was short-lived, the price is down today (-1.20%), so you may as well jump in with both feet. C'mon Fearful press that button...

Published 19 August 2024: Prudential enteres into new partnership with Google Cloud to build AI products for its 15,000 employees across Asia and Africa. Looks like a good investment into AI for the future.

https://www.itij.com/latest/news/prudential-plc-forms-ai-partnership-google

@Iwonttell. Agreed.

I'm more interested in thoughts about the principle i.e. could Zephyr be targeted as a M&A opportunity during current talks/negotiations around investment? Just a feeling...

C'mon NoFear - haven't you bought yet? Take that £50K divide in to two and herd those two sheep into the pen. Hit the 'buy' button with your shepherd's crook! It's only money.

@JD Nice post. I broadly agree. With Point 4 I do believe management were correct in providing a downbeat result/forecast. Always better to err on the side of caution, and then surprise the market. Oldest trick in the book, but it works almost every time. I need look no further than my investment in CMC Markets made shortly after downbeat results/forecast to see evidence of this. The next CMC Markets' result exceeded expectations and the share price has been on the up ever since.

As per my previous post (or two or three back) on JD Sports, I am confident the numbers will exceed market expectations when the results are announced on Thursday 22 August. This is based on several factors outlined previously. Also, it is of interest that the announcement will be made on 22 and not end of August - this would indicate the numbers are favourable and therefore would be keen to publish results sooner rather than later. Also, with the Hibbett deal completed, the future looks bright here based on the new JD Sports group's revenues, profits etc.

I have added an extra £50K today as JD Sports share price has dropped since yesterday (along with most of the rest of the market) and the share price seems too cheap, as we head towards anicipated positive results on 22 August. I expect a jump upwards after the results.

IMO & DYOR