Member Info for Ivyspivey

Plus AB if I can contribute to this debate without your obvious much greater knowledge of how the Market works.
My understanding of the DE Fund is that much of their investment will be in private Company's which is very difficult for PIs to access.
Many of the up and coming outfits in the Covid space are private Company's which need money but can produce great returns and probably guidance which DE may be able to help with as an NED as to how to progress their future

Thanks Hasiba,
Yep I understand the role of IgG and IgM as part of the normal immune response but was less sure of role of IgA.
I know that Chris Chiu at Imperial has looked at the short duration of that IgA response might not matter as much as the fact that it peaks early – within a day or two of the innate response. The adaptive immune system kicks in if that innate response fails – it’s the second line of defence – but if you could enhance that early IgA response you could still block infection and illness.
As it is found mainly in the upper respiratory tract it was more a case of wondering what effect the SCLP Covid Vax may have or would we need to change the route of admin

Hi WTP,
I was looking at that on another board and extrapolating the importance of IgA and its role in generating an immune response.
Question for anyone.Is there a role for an IgA response re innate immunity in CI Iditarod or would they need to develop an intra nasal Vax to make it work

Trek/Anyone a question for you.
Do you know if the HC model that Orph is developing for Covid 19 can be used to evaluate different methods of administration so is it just to get the virus into the body or does it need to be specific about the route into the body.

Quote “This is a virus that’s transmitted through your respiratory tract, so if you want a vaccine that will really prevent infection and onward transmission you want to have an antibody response in your nose, in your lungs,” Shattock said. “The most efficient way to induce that is by inoculating through that route.”
He also says expect some results from Oxford one in Q1 and Imperial 1 in Q2 so timing fits.
Shattock is the Imperial Vax Guy.

Also look at work being done in Hong Kong to come up with a Flu/Covid 19 intra nasal Vax.
Could that be what China Govt wanted to talk to CF about?

https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwj_17nVkJbtAhWWQxUIHSvgAB0QFjADegQIBxAC&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bloomberg.com%2Fnews%2Farticles%2F2020-10-11%2Fcovid-19-inhaled-vaccines-may-be-more-effective-than-injections&usg=AOvVaw0gJ3t5gYxnpzn85f8irJV1

Thanks Trek,
I have long suspected that 2 of these slots would be used for the principal Vax responses supported heavily by the U.K. Govt so the Oxford and Imperial ones but the current Intra muscular ones are too far down the regular p2/p3 pathway.
I saw the intra nasal ones are currently undergoing P1 if I recall correctly and the involvement of Chris Chiu who is the Imperial HC contact and the logic of the IgA part of the immune system being particularly found in upper respiratory tract in triggering a possible longer lasting immunity in a more convenient form makes more sense for an HC trial.
Do you know if Orph actually has a Flu intra nasal HC Challenge model.
PS Remember Codagemics if I recall correctly uses an intra nasal approach

Trader 3

Trader Joe
I was going to post the same article and did you extrapolate the same conclusion as me that the presence of IgA in the upper respiratory tract and involvement of Chris Chiu means that of the 3 booked Govt slots fir the HC studies are for the intra nasal Oxford ChAD and Imperial Vax formulations currently being developed as potentially providing better results than the intra muscular ones currently being trialled

Sorry is not allowing link to be posted but came from Today’s Guardian

https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwj2xrDQzpPtAhWtQEEAHfKICH0Q0PADegQIDRAV&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fworld%2F2020%2Fnov%2F21%2Ftrials-to-begin-in-uk-for-covid-antibody-****tail-drug-treatment&usg=AOvVaw1UXany3ktyIye3kFVqFqfS

FYI to give some idea of how valuable this mAb market is and why Redmile be so keen to enhance the value here

The cost, however, is high. Two companies, Regeneron and Eli Lilly, that have produced antibody ****tails for treating people in hospitals, set their prices at $600 (£451) to $1,000 a dose. The numbers of people who would be given the antibody ****tail instead of a vaccine were relatively small, said Pangalos. “It’s millions of doses, versus billions,” he said.

I know there is no mention of this area at AGM but is it possible for Avidmab and mAB platform be utilised in fight vs Covid as per the AZN news today.

https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwjx2u77zJPtAhWIbsAKHZiiAm4QFjAFegQIAhAC&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.astrazeneca.com%2Fmedia-centre%2Fpress-releases%2F2020%2Fcovid-19-long-acting-antibody-laab-combination-azd7442-rapidly-advances-into-phase-iii-clinical-trials.html&usg=AOvVaw3KJ9peRPoNDbzeq_ZCHZXo

PS Balman Excellent answer to a very good question

OK Peter did not realise Ergo is a CRO so please it is a fairer comparison however they are more a traditional CRO rather than a niche one like ORPH.lThey do offer some if the services that ORPH offer via the Venn side rather than the.hVivo side.
If you look at the Ergo site it is the US acquisition which seems to be doing better than the previous core business as they compete with lots of other traditional CROs.
Orph is not a typical CRO apart from maybe the Venn side but even that is trying to increase its specialisation by highlighting its PK data analysis potential.
However it is the HC nature of ORPH that has transformed the profitability plus the cost saving of CF throughout the business.
This imo is what will really drive future revenues and profitability and will make ORPH a great takeover target for a more traditional CRO

Hi Peter,
I don’t know Ergo at all but think you need to be aware I would be wary of comparing ORPH to other healthcare Companys.
Yes it operates in that space but as a CRO(Contract Research Organisation) so as a service outfit to other pharma/ biotech stocks.
So it’s core business ( so not Immutex or Prep) is not dependent on developing or selling drugs/ science and does not matter if the trials are successful or not.
It is a niche CRO and truly unique and industry leader in a very specialist field.So if the field grows and we know that it is at an exponential rate then think what happens when demand rises markedly and supply is very constrained and market entry high in terms of cost and time.
This has helped ORPH become profitable so increased demand has fuelled filling capacity at a much higher average cost.
The future only look great as the demand continues to grow and the supply seize gets tighter

Thanks Crackin for the very general advice.
I know a lot of people blame MMs for getting up to dirty tricks and know far more what is going on than PIs.
I take a considered view which tallies with yours.They are simply out to make money for little risk via the spread.
They make money whether a stock moves up or down and they simply want to increase volume not want to take the stock in any preferred direction.
Of course they use certain tactics like false drops to hit SLs and panic folk but if you believe in the fundamentals you should stick rather than twist.
ATB

Hi C7/AB,
Just finished Meeting.I am just going to bow to people like yourselves and Crackin who know far more about this TA stuff than I do.
I admit I do not understand it apart from the basic inferences re RSI entry and exit/ resistance/ support levels and moving averages.
However, I like to see TA input from all viewpoints as would imagine you should get a consensus as it is largely made on objective data.
I really do not to want to let any particular judgement of any poster but especially ones before I joined in 2015 affect my consideration of what they may say unless I have knowledge of that area or have a specific distaste of that individual.

PS My own personal view on why the SP has weakened a bit is due to several factors.
1. Whenever news of successful Covid 19 Vax is announced it tends to cause all stocks exposed to Covid whether a large part of the business or not to weaken.
2.Maybe some news expected at AGM which did not happen.
3. What I consider most important simply a realisation that most major news is likely to be some way off and they may want to use money elsewhere.
These will not affect decisions for LTH but more likely short term and new holders and none of these effect the long term future here and I reiterate buying under 13 is a very good entry as long as you are o related to wait.

Morning C7,
I did recommend Burble,Bermuda and Ray Ps posts as I thought them very informative.
With regard to Crackin it was about his TA comments so the first paragraph rather than the second and third so this.

Charts are not yet indicating a bearish move but as you can imagine all the Bullish momentum has gone with the moving averages now in neutral. Thursday 12th November saw the neutral position achieved so it looks like we are at the mercy of daily traders. The RSI is sitting on 37 slightly above oversold (30).

I did refer to this in my post but apologies if it was not clear.I welcome views from all sides and although may not agree with Crackins comments about the science I do think he knows a lot more about the TA side than me so appreciate his input.
BW