RE: Spod grade22 Feb 2026 14:40
The share price is "low" because the market doesn't believe Bougouni is a "cash cow" yet.
It sees it as a "marginally profitable operation" that needs to fix its recovery rates to survive if lithium prices dip again.
- The grade produced is below target 5.53%, are there penalties for this in the offtake?
- The aisc for 2025 was implied as above $1045 in the recent SPA broker report, way above the number constantly mentioned by Kodal, when will they tell us the truth?
- The recovery is under 35%, Kodal has stated they are "refining and modifying" the plant to improve this, but until they show a recovery rate closer to 50–60%, the "profit" margin remains paper-thin.
-Kodal's first shipment sold for $989.50/t CIF. If the second shipment was sold under the same contract terms before the most recent price spike, the "cash" might not be as high as the current spot price suggests.
- Stage 2. The market is worried that Stage 1 cash flow won't be enough to cover this if recoveries stay low, leading to potential future dilution.
I think it's wait and see until the real data starts to emerge rather than Bernies empty promises in his promotional videos.
Those claiming everything is fantastic are living in cloud cuckoo land.