Member Info for investor33

TT1981 ; also, in terms of a possible takeover, shares might have been purchased in large number by proxy, and then used to sell in neat blocks and thereby keep the share price suppressed.

TT1981 ; the smart professional money who are the real movers behind the share price. So the trading desks.

By the way - in August 2016 the share price had declined to 1.5p. It then suddenly started shooting up late in the year to eventually hit 38.5p in Feb 2017. You can't persuade me that heavy accumulation wasn't going on at around the 1.5p level.

I'm not saying that will happen again, but I am saying that when moves happen they can be dramatic. There's been about 400% volatility every single year for a decade - why should it stop in 2025 ?

I also believe though that price suppression with a view to a takeover is not out of the question.

Doc ; I suspect share price suppression to hold it at these kind of levels until the historical accumulation at this time of year is over. Historically a large accumulation phase about now would always have been rewarded by a 300% or 400% gain at the right seasonal moment.

Thornogson ; or maybe when it does what it does every year as far back as my chart goes - which is 11.5 years. In other words it gets its usual seasonal boost in the share price. Why do you think that someone on ADVFN has been buying about now and then forgetting it until spring for the last 5 or 6 years ?

So he isn't on aboard every day for months driving himself slowly crazy fretting over the share price every day and debating fundamentals ad infinitum with people who need their dopamine fix to prove that they are more right than the next guy on here.....

All becomes apparent when you study a long term chart. Right now we are under VWAP - but over 11.5 years it always comes back to hit VWAP and then it very often goes well above it. VWAP is at about 3.2p right now.

The big resistance points are around 5p and 10p. I wouldn't be surprised if by May or June it has tested 10p again.

2024 I meant....

Avo ; True - and it's £15,000 a day more than they were getting this time last year, when there was also the small matter of the company having no legal access to the land. ....and seemingly a hostile district committee and a hostile provincial governor.

It's time that people saw things a bit in context. 12 months ago the most that the company could hope to do as it stood back then going into 2014 was to do another wildcat. And yet by May the share price had hit about 5.5p.

What moveonup wrote makes me really question the IQ of some of the people on here - some can't even do basic maths.

Oh, and guess what ? In Dec 2018 it suddenly got a boost again - up from 1.9p going into Dec all the way up to about 6.5p by February 2019.

Imagine how much money the smart professional money makes on these volatile moves....that's a 350% uplift in about a month. Or if you like a 2,600% uplift in about 6 months during that 2016 pump and dump.....

By the way - we have been here before. In late summer 2016 the share price had done its usual fall from the May 2016 peak and was at 1.4p. Then in late November and into December 2016 it started shooting up like a rocket - eventually reaching a peak of 38.5p in Feb 2017.....

Of course it was a huge pump and dump. Going into winter 2017 it was back to 5p before it got the usual December boost back up to a peak of 14.5p....And of course the next peak was in May 2018 followed by the usual summer decline.

Some of the talk on here is frankly ridiculous - talk of the company ' being finished ' etc.

Consider where the company was this time last year - the local committee had given no indication whatsoever that they were ever going to grant the LP consent. In fact they had been totally against the idea up to that point. And the tripartite provincial agreement was still not signed by a hostile governor.

No infrastructure had been installed at H1 and no drilling had happened at H2. The company's finances were not great, and there was absolutely no income coming in. All that the company could have done going into 2024 was to try drilling another wildcat - without the LP consent it was stuffed as regards Heron.

Yet as per usual, the share price had its big boost going into the new year in anticipation of the new drilling season, going from a low of 2.5p in mid November 2023 to 4.4p by the end of December 2023, and then after some more up and down volatility starting from mid January, it eventually hit the usual late May/early June peak which in this case was 5.4p.

It's a volatile share - there's a lot of pumping and dumping going on. And during and up to the crescendo of a dump phase ( usually starting in early summer and going on for months ) you have all these people on this board and ADVFN saying that the company is finished, that all is lost etc.

Just another thing. Of course the last raise happened quite soon after the traditional "May peak " had been reached.

Of course the raise was also soon after the LP had been granted - however the traditional ' May peak ' nicely provided a relatively elevated share price so that a discounted raise would be viable. That's worth considering.

Bluechipz ; we're in the same boat almost exactly by the sounds of it. As you say though - live and learn !

Bluechipz ; that's exactly what that guy does. And he's one of the smartest people that I have heard on either board, because he's really just mainly focused on price action. And he has spotted recurrent patterns and taken advantage of them - good for him.

Fortunes must have been made with this share because not everybody is on the wrong side of 400% volatility year in year out. They have had their multibagger already several times over before any oil was even pumped out of the ground.

I think that it's always a case of followiung the smart money and ignoring the noise and chatter.

Legal ; yes, I think that it is a good strategy. With hindsight I should have sold up at the peak in May this year ( about the time of the usual peak each year ) and then bought back in on the raise. Selling in May would have been ideal in both 2023 and 2024.

It got back to about 3.5p in the weeks after the raise. Again, though, just holding long term doesn't work well with such a volatile share.

I've just filtered Adw. This is a guy who has consistently gloated at LTHs being underwater. Not a nice person at all.

Seemingly he isn't invested, yet just spends every minute of every day trying to point score vs other posters on here. It sounds like a dopamine addiction to me. A serious investor once they are out would spend that time looking for other opportunities surely ?

Adw ; if you've never looked at a chart then there's little point in debating with you. It's not hindsight - it's a recurrent pattern every year. I'm saying that this share is all about price action, and that typically volatility every year is consistently about 400%. That's a fact.

As a matter of interest - why do you spend every minute of every day debating with people on here about a share that you sold out of, and seemingly have a high degree of contempt towards ? I can only presume that it a dopamine addiction through the feeling that you have got the better of someone on here ? It just seems like a total waste of time to me.

I was debating whether to share this info by the way - however it should give confidence to those who are currently trapped underwater.

I would say though - think long and hard whether it is best to just hold and hope for the best. That was my mistake, and I won't be doing it again.

Legal ; that's true as well. Though in 2023 there was a Feb raise at 2p and then like clockwork it rose rapidly to the May peak.

Bluechipz ; I feel like a complete fool not to have noticed the pattern earlier. It's so obvious when you look at a 10 year chart.

Anybody starting with say 20k who simply bought about now and then sold in April or May for the last 7 or 8 years would have turned that into several hundred thousand by now. This way they are in phase with the smart professional money.

And no endless debates every day about who is more right about the fundamentals to waste one's time on. And no time wasted listening to the likes of WOS et al. Simply buy about now, walk away and come back in spring.....