Member Info for investor33

Doc : Btw, I don't believe that the fundamentals and the price action are always in synch - in fact sometimes not at all.

With a consistent 300 % to 400% annual variation in the mcap based on the low and high of the year, there's logically just no way that the mcap is always a mirror reflection of the fundamentals or the true value of the company.

Doc : oh ok - that's fair comment.

I still think that previous resistance levels will still come into play though. Even with dilution, I don't think that historically it's stopped a string resistance level from being tested. The one to watch out for is around the 5p mark. And old resistance can become new support. We have mainly been in a 1.5p to 5p range though since early 2020. It stays in that range despite any dilution.

Doc ; the share price has always been well north of 1.5p by the usual May/ June peak. And several times in past years it has fallen back to this kind of level - it's called a support level.

You may pay no attention to price action and technical analysis, however the professional money most certainly does. That's why price action patterns repeat themselves year after year - the professional money knows where the support and resistance levels are and acts accordingly.

Doc ; re that point about dilution.

I cited an example of the price action in early 2023 which you didn't comment on. Why so soon after the dilution of a 2p raise in Feb 23 did the share price then rocket up to 7p by May 23 ? Surely the recent dilution shouldn't have allowed this rocketing price action just 2 or 3 months later according to what you believe ?

Wigster ; all I will say is that between now and say the end of next June I believe that it will have retested the 5p level. In other words, as usual bounced around between the support (* which we have hit now ) and resistance levels of the extremely well entrenched range that we have been in since early 2020.

However the next big resistance is around the 10p level - so I wouldn't exclude around that level too if things go well in terms of the fundamentals before now and the end of June.

Have you looked at a long term chart ? It's what I should have been watching like a hawk from the moment that I first got involved with this share back in 2019. Barchart dot com is what I use - and you can draw in support and resistance levels and other indicators etc.

The patterns become so obvious when you look at say an 11.5 year chart - which is as far back as it goes on that site. The range we are in right now becomes very clear when you look at a chart - the trouble is that many on here don't look at historical price action, so the bigger context is completely lost to them in terms of the price action.

Doc 83 ; " Historical SP is irrelevant when we’ve had so many raises and extra shares issued. It’s market cap you need to look at."

Not really. Back in 2023 straight after a Feb 2p raise the share price rose in a few weeks to around 7p. It was the price action at a historically strong time of the year for the share price which was all that counted.

Looking at a 11.5 year chart, in fact the price action has been almost entirely in a range of 1.5 to 5p during all that time - with just the odd spike above 5p such as the one I just mentioned.

In that context what we are seeing now is pretty well normal - the MMs and their trading desks historically accumulate at this time of year ready for action when the drilling season starts.

If you've never looked at or understood a chart a long term showing the historical price action then you will probably have no idea of this kind of thing - to me that's like driving a car at night whilst wearing sunglasses.

Margaritas ; nobody can bring the share price down based on what they post on here.

Espen probably just has psychological issues which trolls usually tend to have. Obtaining pleasure from other people's discomfort probably indicates extreme narcissism, as empathy and narcissism are inverse. Usually trolls tend to pepper everything they write with laughing or mocking emojis - it's the signature of a typical troll.

IMO a great deal of the weakness of the share price since May has been down to a 10% fall in the AIM index over the last 6 months due to that idiot Rachel Reeves' damaging budget polices. The FTSE 100 has been static in that time. There's a lot of uncertainty currently as to whether she may eventually take away the other 50% of IT relief with AIM shares. The boss of AIM has just spoken out about how she needs to stop damaging the index through this uncertainty. Labour don't understand business, and Reeves is clearly ' sexed up ' her CV, which the media has recently exposed. She was a customer service manager at HBOS in Leeds - not an ' economist ' as she once claimed.

And then the other aspect is the seasonal nature of the share price which goes back as far as my chart will show - which is 11.5 years. May or June usually being the peak over the last 11.5 years. Put the two together, and you have a recipe for months of share price weakness throughout summer and going into winter.

Yes, there was the raise this year in June - however in 2023 after a 2p Feb raise, the share price had hit as high as 7p by the time of the usual May/June peak. It was just that the raise was done at the right time of the year to allow for a decent increase based on the promise of what the extra funding would allow going into the drilling season.

" The boss of London's AIM market has called for Labour to rule out any further tax raids after it was targeted in Reeves' budget. AIM was hit when when the chancellor halved the Inheritance tax relief available on shares in the junior market from 100% to 50%.

"The junior market - which underperformed the rest of the London market ahead of the budget amid the speculation - has continued to struggle since then. "

AIM's boss, Marcus Stuttard, said that in order to close the gap investors must have reassurance that Reeves will not come back for more. "

"AIM is down by nearly 10% over the past six months. That compares unfavourably with London's blue-chip FTSE 100, which is roughly flat over the same period. "

" Peel Hunt analysts predicted that, far from saving money as the treasury intended, cutting tax breaks on AIM shares could end up costing more than £2bn. That is because the fall in the value of the index - of £7bn so far - will mean less capital gains tax is paid on share sales, while the reduction in capital available to growth companies will mean fewer jobs. "

Wigster ; as a matter of fact, what's your average.

I think things will turn around for genuine LTHs such as yourself. I'm in a similar position btw. Spring is always a good time for the share price.

I don't know why the hell the MG doesn't step in to help PM out.

I mean if they want Heron developed quickly, and the refinery to be half decently supplied with oil then they need to start making some decisions.

Either that or a deal is worked out soon with DQE. This would guarantee the fast tracking of the Heron field development, which the company is not easily going to be in a financial position to pull this off. If the development depends on profits from existing wells then clearly it will be a slow process. No well is a guaranteed gusher.

Overner ; I thought that the profit share may not kick in immediately due to the offset of exploration costs ? It's about time that all this was officially clarified, as it has a huge impact on how much of the current gross profit from H1 the company is left with.

XxProInvestorxx ; thanks for that. It's good to get thoughts from someone who obviously has an in depth understanding of the technicalities involved here. Oil extraction is not my area of knowledge or expertise, and I'm sure that's the case for most on here.

BadProphet " I think the SP is stuck at these sort of levels or lower for years to come. I will be surprised if it breaks 2p before Spring."

That assumption is based on the belief that that there is no smart professional money which doesn't make 300 or 400% gains on their accumulation at low prices. IMO it's the smart professional money which really drives this share price in either direction - but always with huge volatility. Share price volatility is oxygen for the trading desks.

Look at what happened in 2016 - do you really believe that the professional money didn't make huge gains between a share price of 1.5p to 38.5p in just a few months ? What drove that rocketing of the share price ?

Doc ; "There's also this talk of Petrovis being our parent company??? Can anyone clear that one up for me because it wasn't my understanding."

The Petrovis website refers to MATD being a subsidiary of Petrovis.

Wigster ; " People were generally expecting the LP fairly early in the year and that there'd be 3-4 wells on stream by Summer, plus renewables. "

4 wells would have cost about $16m. Where was the money coming from without a large raise ?

Wigster ; " People were generally expecting the LP fairly early in the year and that there'd be 3-4 wells on stream by Summer, plus renewables. "

What you wrote there illustrates why spring and early summer has always been the best time of year for the share price. There's lots of anticipation of what is to come going on. And the smart professional money knows this and positions itself accordingly. This has been going on for the last decade.

Thornogson ; you are right. It's highly likely that H1 can be sorted so as to produce a minimum of 800 bopd. And H2 after the winter will produce at least 50 barrels - but it could well be the case that analysis will uncover flaws in the drilling process, or alternatively ways that the rocks can be fractured to make the well properly productive.

Sooner or later I think it's likely that H1 and H2 will be producing a min of 1000 bopd. And then we will be in spring, and historically the best time of year for the share price.

TT1981 ; to be honest, I'm not too sure. Petrochina are scaling down in Mongolia aren't they ?

Any thoughts on this anyone ?

Wigster ; go back a year. The company had no legal access to the land and had been blocked at every turn. The local committee had actually given the impression up to then that they wouldn't grant local access. The provincial governor was openly hostile and wouldn't sign the tripartite agreement.

Funds must have been fairly low, and the only certainty going into 2024 would have been that the company might attempt a wildcat whilst it kept on trying to gain the Heron access. The prospects were actually dire. And yet people on here were predicting a share price of up to 30p by the end of 2024....Now they are producing at last the sentiment on here is actually worse.