Member Info for investor33

Doc : do us all a favour in 2025. If it gets to break even for you give up on FOMO and sell up. Then find another company to buy into and then sit on a board such as this one moaning about how bad the company is.It's a productive way to go about one's life apparently....

Doc ; every year most investors have probably had the opportunity to partly or fully sell at a profit - yet most investors probably didn't because of a sense of FOMO. You're probably one of them, because you have been holding on for around 10p. I'm in that boat as well - for the time being at least.

Given that the price variation between the high and the low year in year out is at least 300 to 400% ( 1,500% in 2017 ) then whose fault is it if people keep treating it like a large cap share rather than a micro cap, and then blaming the company for their lack of understanding of these types of volatile and speculative shares ?

Manx - so the years 2020,21,22 and 23 were not ' catastrophic failures ' given that the company had been granted the exploitation licence in mid 2019 and yet in these years the company was continually frustrated by not having the local access consent or the signed tripartite agreement ? And now in 2024, when mid way through the year it finally achieves the breakthrough, and obtains the local access consent for 5 years, this is in your mind labelled ' one of the worst years... ' And in 2024 production has at long last actually started.

What you really mean is that it has been a weak year for the share price since the 5p May peak. Yet if you look back at every year for the last 10 years you will find that the share price has had something like a 300% to 400% variation between the low and the high of the year. Welcome t the world of micro cap shares - did you think you were buying into BP or Shell or something ? Sounds like you are in the wrong game to me.

People are understandably hacked off about the share price - however the index itself has lost about 10% since May. Add this factor to another major factor - that historically the share price has tended to weaken in the second half of the year, then it's not rocket science to understand why we went from 5p in May to 1.5p now. Yes, we had the raise as well, however in 2023 a few weeks after a 2.5p raise, the share price soared to about 7p by May of that year - the reason being that it happened at a historically strong time of the year for the share price. Try looking at some charts going back 10 years maybe ?

"Y-Alam - there’s Gusto who doesn’t hold but he is a blatant trader. Then there’s Espen who was shot down for daring to be negative and then harassed on other boards, so he’s decided it’s payback. Blame WOS."

Stas is also a trader.

Doc ; regardless of whether MATD paid for the report, do you really think that Progressive would wreck their professional reputation through stating a lot of sexed up incorrect information and data in order to keep PM happy ? I think not.

It's not like PM is their sole source of income - the fee they received is probably a relative drop in the ocean. Far more important to them is that they have credibility within their industry for professional competence.

The likes of WOS with his diligent ' research ' talk about micro caps as though he were investing in the likes of Rolls Royce back in October 2022, when some very thorough research into the fundamentals at the time would have been rewarded with an 800% multibagger by now.

Micro caps are an entirely different beast - they are highly volatile in terms of the price action in both directions. Every year we have around 400% price volatility with MATD and I very much doubt that this will end in 2025.

To give an idea of the volatility of micro caps, on Weds morning on the NY opening bell a company called Nukkleus started the session at $2.5. By the end of yesterday' s session it had peaked at $77, and now as I write this it is back down to $38 in US pre-market. A swing trader could have turned $25,000 into $750,000 within two trading days if his timing had been pretty accurate...

MATD has also had one or two big price spikes in the past - notably in 2017, when it shot up from about 2.5p to 38p and then back down again.

It's also linked to the seasonal nature of oil prices ;

" Crude oil inventory shifts can be segmented into four phases, namely: (1) Inventory Build Up (Feb - May), (2) Summer Travel Spikes Demand (Jun - Aug), (3) Demand Shrinks & Supply Contracts (Sep - Nov) "

Doc ; I was using it to illustrate the seasonal nature of oilers whether micro or large cap. It's not rocket science.

Oh, and PC's share price started to rocket on 23rd Jan of this year - starting from 7 CNY and then hitting nearly 11 CNY by the 17th April. The share price decline then started in mid July.

Nicetomachu ; with all the predictions of the future share price the mistake that people make consistently is not taking into account the time of year and the seasonality of the share price.

For example, this time last year several people made predictions of where the share price would be by the end of this year. They were all wildly over optimistic, with some saying " 15p on the LP consent, 30p on production "etc . So the likes of Hamm thought that on production the company would suddenly be valued at around 400m. And nobody took into account the fact that late in a year usually means a weak share price.

Take a look at a large cap oiler such as PetroChina's share price for this year - it reached its peak in mid April and then again in early July at 10.70 CNY, and then went into a consistent decline until the end of this year. It is currently at 8.50 CNY having gone as low as 7.75 in Sept.

This share is seasonal, and will start an upward trajectory sometime in the first few months of the year as usual. Even a raise, such as happened in Feb 2023 would result in a surge straight after. In 2023 after the 2.5p raise it then soared to as high as 7.5p in just two months.

Looking at the PC chart over several years, - that tends to surge early in the year as well. It's just the way that the price action works with these oilers.

Interesting looking at PC's share price for the last few years. Again, seasonality of the price action. In early Jan this year it was about $5 and then hit its peak at the end of June at $8.4. It then went into decline for the rest of the year, and is currently around $5.7.

Same in 2023 - a big rise in the share price from around $3.5 starting in early Jan, and reaching a peak in early Sept of $5.6 before going into decline for the rest of the year. It's listed on the HK stock exchange of course.

" May " rather.

Alans55 : the share price is less than a quarter what it was at the 5p My 2024 peak, which is because the price action is seasonal.

And all the milestones happened in the traditionally weaker second half of the year getting on towards the winter hiatus.

At the end of the day, historically there has been a 300 to 400% variation in the share price /mcap of the company. In the case of 2017 the variation was more like 1,500%.

That's just the way that the price action works historically with this share. Banging on about dilution doesn't account for these variations - whereas seasonality does. The valuation of the company has always moved around wildly at differing times of the year.

Anybody who bangs on all the time about dilution needs to explain why after the 2.5p raise in Feb 2023 the share price suddenly rocketed a few weeks later to as high as 7.5p - so a 300% uplift in just a few weeks. The increased dilution shouldn't have allowed this to happen if you are of the school which ignores price action in the real world.

2025 even...

I certainly wouldn't rule out the old 10p resistance area being retested in 2015 if up to 3 wells start performing somewhere near expectations.

Thornogson ; one thing I am very confident of - come spring /summer 2025 you will have a share price which at some point will be somewhere around the 5p area. Possibly higher depending on how things unfold - the next big resistance level above that is around 10p.

Organisation and preparation can now be done over winter, whereas last year this just wasn't possible until the land access consent had been granted. This time last year the only definite thing that the company could have said they could do in 2024 would have been another wildcat had of course the finances permitted this. Otherwise nothing for 2024 could have been decided or assured without the local land access consent. This time last year the company's future was completely up in the air.