Member Info for investor33

Bluechipz ; I was looking at a 10 year chart yesterday evening, and it suddenly hit me hard in the face as to how the price action consistently works with this share. It is completely seasonal. The only good time to be in it is between now and April or May. Right now we have fallen back to a support which has happened several times in the past - and usually at this time of the year.

IMO the smart professional money is accumulating again now ready for the next multibagger come spring irrespective of what the company actually does. We have had a sudden price spurt in December as well - notably in 2022.

All he doom and gloom spread on here by some just helps the smart money at this time of year - no doubt it was the same in previous years. That guy on ADVFN who buys about now and sells when everybody is excited in spring said that the negativity at this time of year is music to his ears.

Look at this year - in May it was just over 5p, before setting into a decline for the rest of the year. However May as usual was the peak. Why do you think that the share price hit 7p in May 2023 ? It wasn't because of any fundamentals. It was the smart money taking its profit off the table.

People need to look at a long term 10 year chart - though it sounds as though hardly anybody ever does on here. Every year except the 2020 covid year ( when the borders were shut ) the share price has fallen from early summer until the first part of winter, and then suddenly picks up again in anticipation of the winter hiatus ending. It always then peaks in April or May before declining again.

In other words the share price is seasonal, and the smart professional money trades in line with this. Anybody buying about now and selling in April or May would have made a fortune these last 10 years. That's what that guy on ADVFN says he has been doing.

The trouble is that most people on here have no understanding of price action, and are solely obsessed with fundamentals. It's a trader's share - every single year there is something like a 400% difference between the low and high of the year. And that's the case whether the company has had legal access to the land or not, or whether it has been producing or not. The smart money is taking full advantage of that 400% volatility as multibagger potential irrespective of what this company actually does in Mongolia.

Bluechipz ; "Once this SP starts motoring going in the other direction, it will hopefully continue to do so for a good weeks as we've seen before over the years. Come on MB, get your finger out!"

And Amen to that !

Wigster77; It was hardly great news in Dec 2022 . Just more delays with the local access. In fact it sounded then that the local committee didn't want to grant access ;

" The Mongolian government's process to certify Petro Matad's Block XX Exploitation Licence area as special purpose land is progressing. Meetings held at the Matad district and Dornod provincial levels of citizens' committees resulted in voting that did not support the central government's certification proposal. The Mineral Resources and Petroleum Authority of Mongolia ("MRPAM") has however written to the Ministry of Mining and Heavy Industry ("MMHI") recommending certification of the Block XX Exploitation Licence despite the local committees' views. The Company's focus is now to support MMHI in progressing the matter through to a cabinet resolution as quickly as possible. Given the delays, Petro Matad is unlikely to be in a position to operate on the Heron development until the spring of 2023, once its land access rights have been re-established."

Adw ; "I don’t dismiss it but isn’t the SP more just a reflection of the fact that H2 is currently borderline commercial and the possible implication for what that means across the rest of the field? "

For me this begs the question - why did the share price reach as high as 7p in May 2023 with no legal access to the land, and no indication as to whether legal access would ever be granted ? That was as big an "Armageddon issue " hanging over the company that you could ever have had - as without the access nothing could ever happen except the pursuit of renewables.

I tend to think that that guy on ADVFN wasn't lying when he said that every year going back 6 years he has bought and sold based solely on the time of year. It seems to have worked for him every year to date. He's working off the price action though, and not particularly obsessing about the fundamentals.

XShandoG ; " Maybe manipulation from the MM? maybe holding the price low for a take over? God knows "

It will be one of the two. If we see a sudden surge starting early Dec like we saw in in Dec 2022, then we will know for sure that the MM trading desks set things up nicely for their year end results/bonuses.....I've heard that some Chinese fund managers were investigated for pumping stocks near the year end so as to make their figures look better.

Bluechipz ; " Investor - I read that comment as well somewhere and I have indeed seen it myself over the last 6 years I have been here. FOMO on the big rerates kept me here when I should have banked a lot of profit. I’m open and honest enough to say that. This is the only share I am invested in on the AIM and it will be the only share I am invested in on the AIM as well. "

Bluechipz - your situation is just the same as mine. I realise now that these last few years I should have just been more focused on the price action, and banked when briefly in profit. FOMO can be a bit of a psychological handicap quite often. We live and learn. There's no reason though to think that the huge volatility in the price action will end next year, so timing is key for whatever strategy anybody adopts. I've already decided on mine.

There's no doubt that a lot of the annual price action revolves around the time of year- so it's very often a seasonal price action. The last couple of years May has been the peak, and then downhill through summer and into early winter. That poster on ADVFN pointed this out. Just think that in May this year the share price was about 5p with no legal access to the land having been granted, and in 2023 it briefly hit about 7p in May on hot air news, and of course also with no land access consent having been granted. Even in the covid period with all the borders shut, and no land access consent the share price was higher than it is now. For all we knew back then covid might have lasted for years.

Just like you I put my hands up and admit that I didn't understand how AIM works. I do now - and for me too it will be my last foray on this exchange, as the price volatility is simply insane.

"On the 4th Dec in 2022 the share price starting surging and eventually hit about 5p in early January. "

Surging from 1.8p in late November I should have said.

Bluechipz ; " I think there is someone making sure this SP falls every time there is an RNS and that the SP stays down. Whether it be for a lower future take over price, or just trading."

Someone on ADFN wrote that he has been buying going into early winter for the last 5 or 6 years, and then sells in spring. Every time the price gets beaten down about this time of year. He sells when everybody is getting excited about a sudden surge in the share price. And he says it works every time, with all the negative stuff on these types of boards music to his ears going into winter. On the 4th Dec in 2022 the share price starting surging and eventually hit about 5p in early January. So yes, it's clear that the price action reveals that it is for now mainly a trader's share - trader's just love volatility more than anything else. If people don't like that then they are ' investing ' on the wrong exchange.

On the other hand I wouldn't rule out the price being beaten down with a view to a takeover. Regardless, people need to understand that micro caps like this one are often more about price action and volatility than fundamentals. Just take a look at a 10 year chart if you don't believe me - it's like the profile of a large mountain range. The peaks and valleys have been enormous, and every single year there is something like a 300 to 400% range between the low and high of the year. It's just super volatile - and Aim is I'm afraid. If you don't like that then you're on the wrong exchange quite simply.

Proquo ; it's very interesting how similar the 2022 chat is to this year's chart so far. Let's see if we get that same large bounce in December like we did back then. Spotting patterns is what technical analysis using charts is essentially about.

Micro caps lend themselves to all manner of price manipulation simply because relatively speaking the volume levels are tiny. That relatively speaking high 82m of volume on the day of the last RNS would be equivalent to just 164 people buying or selling 500k shares each. There was possibly even more buying than selling on that particular day. It's peanuts in terms of volume really. That's why micro caps are so volatile in terms of price movement in either direction.

Doc ; or alternatively Adw may have been shaken out as was intended, along with quite a few others.

I know that you never look at charts, but yet again I looked at a 10 year Matd chart on Barchart dot com yesterday. The chart looks like a mountain range - with lots of peaks and valleys across the whole 10 years. When you look solely at price action then the context becomes very clear.

Right now we have hit a support which we have been around several times in the last 10 years.

The consistent thing about Matd's price action is that it is volatile every single year - typically a difference between the highs and lows of each year of 300 to 400 % And for every single one of those years except half of this one the company had no legal access to the land....

As a matter if fact, did you own any shares back in late Nov 2022 when the share price went from 1.8p to 5.5p in one month starting from the 4th December ?

IMO this is just another MM tree shake such as we saw in late 2022. There then followed a sudden large share price rise in Dec 2022 and in Jan 2023. Basically from 1.8p to 5.5p in just over a month. I think that it's more about year end bonuses for the people on the trading desks.

I would sooner listen to my cat than Espen - he's just a mindless troll who seems to get a dopamine kick through enjoying other people's discomfort. A psychologist would suss his mentality out.

Most of the doomsters would have been writing the company off when the share price fell back to 1.8p in November 2022, and then ' magically ' recovered to 4.5p by the end of December 2022, and then 5.5p in early January 2023.

The fact is that this share is all about price action rather than fundamentals - each year there is something like a 400% variation between the high and low of the year. It's all about volatility, because the money is made through volatility rather than the fundamentals. With very low volume micro caps the share price can be bounced around like a rubber ball against a wall. The trouble is that people think that a microcap is like a Shell or a BP, with relatively little annual price volatility.

On the 14th November - the great crash after the RNS - the volume was 82m - the equivalent of just 164 individuals buying or selling half a million shares each on the day. And a lot of the activity was more buys than sells.

If you've never looked at a chart to see the volatility then you may as well drive a car at might whilst wearing sunglasses.

There is so much BS spoke on here. One person declared straight after 14th November that ' the shares are worthless. ' So in which case what were the shares worth without the company having any legal access to the land. Or for that matter during covid, with the borders shut and no idea of when it would end, with the company having few funds, with absolutely no legal access to the land, and with no idea whether it would ever be granted access ?

Hamm - on balance, my last theory looks like the most feasible one. Our friends the MMs and their trading desks up to tricks.

It's easy to manipulate low volume micro caps. On the 14th November during ' the crash ' the volume was 82m which is the equivalent of just 164 individuals buying and selling 500,000 shares each. And much of the activity seemingly was buying.

The 2024 chart is very similar to the 2022 one - and that rallied strongly in December. Maybe the trading desks just want their huge Xmas bonuses ?

Also, in previous years the share price has normally risen sharply in December/ early to mid January.

Another theory is that the MMs have been deliberately selling off their inventories in order to suppress the share price. Let's ay that they had large holdings at 2p to 2.5p and then did some heavy selling, lower down they could accumulate again heavily from shaken out retail investors and traders. Basically a massive tree shake. Then if there is a decent traditional rally to let's say 5 to 6p in Dec or Jan, they can distribute these near the peak having made some huge profits.....It's a thought.

I still don't get where all this selling has come from in the last few weeks.

- There are no shares available to borrow/short with.

- CFDs are derivatives - they are not the underlying asset ie actual shares.

- The Miton theory is now debunked.

- Churn from the raise was surely over ages ago ? And if not, then why sell now at an all time low ?

- It can't be traders, as with the share price at an all time low there is no profit to be made through selling now. And why would you jump ship at a all time low and with production having started ?

I can only assume that Petrovis are selling some of their holding - but why would they do this ? Maybe to make way for another entity to take their place ??

Otherwise perhaps an entity bought a large number ( possibly by proxy ) say at the time of the last raise with the aim specifically of strategically using them in order to suppress the share price at a later date ?

Stockmaiden ; at least do some research - the legal access to the land wasn't granted by the district committee until May this year.

All the up delays up until May 2024 were basically the handiwork of the provincial governor, who refused to sign the tripartite special purpose designation agreement which had already been signed by the MG and Matd. He deliberately sabotaged Matd for reasons best known to himself - most likely it was down to Mongolian corruption.

AIM stocks are just massively volatile. Look at Deltic Energy - down from earlier this year when around 42p to just 5p today having just gone up 13% in the last day on the news that it expects the first gas from its Selene prospect in 2028. And it's doing a JV with Shell....