Member Info for IntrepidInvestor

Hi all,

I've been a holder of HEMO since June 2021. just watched it drift lower for four years and now it has a fire under it, all of a sudden. Is this all about a sample test of three people, as being suggested? That seems a really low population to witness such a huge hike. Does anyone have any other views on whats actually going on here?

intrepid

Hi all.

Long time, no post.

To paraphrase Agent Smith, this was all “inevitable”. Just don’t expect Neo to save the day on this one.

The whole clusterf**k started with the swift resignation of the newly appointed sales director in 2019. Can’t recall his name but he was there less than a month and resigned as it was obvious he had nothing to ‘sell’. Rumours from JW that no revenues existed followed shortly thereafter and then the now infamous “we will miss guidence” RNS of DEC19, followed the next day with a classic Dramper RNS of “we have signed a £10m contract - with no commitment attached!”

I was all but out after that but kept 4107 shares (my first purchase) as a reminder of what real actual live-for-all-to-see red flags look like.

Dramper will no doubt syphon off any value (IP) into his new private life-raft LTD CO and sail off into oblivion. If any of you ever come across him, don’t be to cruel; as a Norwich fan, he is only ever used to disappointment. But certainly give him a wide berth.

Maybe see you on other boards.

All the best

intrepid.

Hi all.

Long time no post.

I’m still holding on to my original 4187 shares I bought in SEP2018. All others sold yonks ago.

But I like to check in after the annual repulse, sorry, results, are aired.

Dramper is still the same old same old. I can’t believe the comment earlier that he’s being paid £500k pa? That’s simply not feasible, given that amounts to 10% of gross revs and 25% of net revs. And he still insists on sponsoring Norwich FC (or was last season).

This has always clearly been a show designed to inflate his ego. And all the deceit along the way should be challenged. Anyone here remember the first set of accounts when the reverse takeover occurred in 2018? They stated revenues of c £350k, which Fran (remember him) stated was from six weeks of live tests. That was clearly never income and should never have been declared and then confirmed as that. So many bought into that story only to find out that there wasn’t even a single customer a year later; let alone £350k every six weeks (iow over £3m revs annually in 2018).

Dramper and co should be locked up.

Anyway, take care and see you all on here in a year (if BIDS makes that long). I’m hanging on for the CGT loss on that £290.

Cheers

Intrepid

Hi Taverham
My understanding of insolvency law is that an administrator replaces the BoD, not the shareholders. They can and will carry out anything they need to do to release value. They are not in an insolvency process but administration, which means the final say so should be presented to the shareholders. If it were an insolvency, it would not require shareholder approval but court approval. But I am happy to be corrected.
Intrepid

Hi crl123
Sorry , but I must be having a bad day; I can’t work out your em to contact you.

Can you help with the missing digits?
Intrepid.

Hi all.
Looking at the administrators report, it’s apparent that DDDD has been well and truly fleeced by the 2021 lender. How can the company be insolvent when it has over $7m in the bank and a further draw down facility with said lender of a further £7m, AND the administrators state they believe all creditors should get their money back following a breakup of the group.
I strongly suggest everyone votes against the proposed breakup and liquidation. Shareholders won’t get likely get anything once the loans are repaid so why agree to it? Utter shambles.

Hi all. First post on NEX from me.
Been buying since the drop a few weeks ago. Looks like a prime bid target following its recent failed acquisition attempts.

I’m predicting a bid before the end of the year. Uk PLC is cheap and they don’t currently come much cheaper than NEX.

All the best
Intrepid.

Morning all.
DDDD going into administration is governed by various UK statutes; the process is clear and defined. That said, how the major stakeholders react and pursue their aims is often the ‘unknown’. For example, DDDD appear to have called in the administrators. The BoD have a legal obligation to engage either a liquidator, an administrator or the Official Receiver under the Companies Act as soon as it was clear they could not repay creditors. They have chosen the administration route. That suggests they believe there is value to be salvaged as ‘a going concern’. Liquidation would only be used if there is no point in remaining ‘a going concern’. Official Receiver only ever used when there isn’t even enough money in the current account to pay the liquidators base fees (rare).
Administration is the best of bad choices. The real issue now is that the largest creditors can (and often do) veto the chosen administrators and use statutory laws to appoint their own ‘friendly’ administrators, thereby effectively taking control of the process. Administrations will say to this that it doesn’t matter because they must adhere to statutory requirements and create the maximum value for stakeholders. I can speak from experience to say that that is a pile of HS. All administrators are kings in their own fiefdoms once appointed and will do as they please - which boils down to fees; they always choose the route that will create the most fees for them, and having an informal/behind the scenes strategy with the main creditor is a sure way to skew the process in the favour of that creditor and the administrators. However, as shareholders our trump card is a vote on the process. We will get the chance at an EGM to vote on the administrators proposal. But I doubt there will be much left ‘in the pot’ to vote on, once the administrators have had their stone of flesh.
Best everyone writes off the investment, learn from it and move on. Sorry to hear about some being ‘all in’. That’s a real shame; but now a real lesson.
All the best
Intrepid.

Hi all.
SMS walks the walk (or runs it) as usual. The killer point in the update is the declaration that further deals will only be struck at 425p [or higher]. My view is the SP should be between 400 and 500. It ran ahead of itself to the high 800s in Sept last year and and dropped back to far on this downswing, pushed by the liquidity issues caused by margin calls in the wider market. This upgrade should now underpin the SP from further drops but I suspect that 425p is out of reach until the macro market liquidity issue reverses; that could be sometime.
I’ve listed this as a ‘hold’ as I’ve stocked up at these new lows but these levels are the buy levels; I just feel you’ll have time to do it.
All the best
Intrepid.

Hi.
Re the Sunday times comment;
I’ve been buying battery element stocks for some time as it’s fundamentally clear there will be shortages. So I’ve just purchased 50,000 on the back of that article; it’s just one of dozens of small investments in the sector so I’ve not carried out much research on JAY. Guess I’ll get up to speed over the coming weeks. Just read some recent posts on here and it’s clear there is some apathy around. Maybe that’s the reason the stock is not performing in line with the sector (the theory that all boats float in a rising tide). The theory suggests the SP should be considerably higher than it is, because the sector and the basics are ‘on fire’. If I am honest, that’s the sole reason for opening the position; that JAY’s SP needs to catch up with the sector. So this is a proper punt for me.
Good luck all.
Intrepid.

Hi all.
I’m a LTH; since 2018 and will be holding on until SFOR are the biggest ad agency in the world (gotta have a target).
Needless to say, lots of thought-provoking activity recently, particularly that RNS that confirmed the results would be delayed for a second time.
I’ve been buying at these lower levels to add as I’m quite sure the delay is not going to be the precursor to a disaster.
However, it’s still a worry so I asked a very close friend who is a career ‘Company Secretary’ for major global organisations what his take on the wording was. He is the person who would ultimately sign off all RNSs of that type.
His take is that, from the wording used, it seems SFOR are particularly angry with their auditors and that it’s likely the auditors sprung the delay in SFOR at the last moment and could not give an accurate or guaranteed date so SFOR have just put out the note, which infers ‘we can’t say when because our useless auditors can’t say when - the task is bigger than they realised (due to growth/acquisitions/share issues/earn-out clauses/new territories et al).
My friend wouldn’t be surprised if new auditors are appointed in the not to distant future.
He also said that it’s guaranteed that any material issues are not involved as the BoD and the auditors would have to have stated that at the time of the RNS (just as SMS stated on Monday).
I trust my friend 100% on this sort of thing; the only caveat is that there could always be the surprise of the discovery of a material issue made between the RNS and the issuing of the results; but, again, the BoD and auditors would be obliged to inform the market immediately, and not wait for the results.
So, no news is good news.
Happy hunting all.
Intrepid.

Hi Caravan,
re your comment: if MS and his co directors start to buy at current levels this would surely be a positive move.....come on chaps !!
I would assume the BoD is barred from buying until the results are published.
cheers
intrepid

hi all
Well, being the natural contrarian that I am, I have purchased more shares today. I suspect there may be further drops as the more speculative bulls exit, but whatever the issue is, I am sure that the strategy is sound (that of focusing solely at online/digital/dynamic advertising) and will stick with them/SMS. But that's easy to say when my average is around £2.40.
all the best
Intrepid

Dear all
I’ve now sold my punt position (except for a handful, as per my tradition of keeping open the slightest of positions in all my dog stocks; so as to remind me of my mistakes).
BIDS leaks like a sieve so I read the lack of share price appreciation to mean there is not the growth in advertising revs required to push the SP up.
Call me old-fashioned but I don’t actually believe that marketing directors believe that their spend on this new sector ever gets them any returns. I appreciate that advertising is a relative ‘dark art’ and know the old adage that “half of marketing spend is wasted, we just don’t know which half” but BIDS “3 yrs in 1” is now not even “1 year in 3”, seeing as I first bought in in Oct 2018 at 5.7p.
My crystallised view is that this is a dud market that won’t ever reach the sky-high levels others think it will. My prediction is that this sector will grind on with varying successes prior to each Xmas season, but never quite enough to pay all the bills, or certainly if bills are eventually covered, there will be nothing left of significance for shareholders.
I wish the best to all of you and hope to see you on other BBs some other time (not that I am that active outside of BIDS - I’ve enjoyed the banter here!)
All the best
Intrepid.

Hi all.
I agree with the sentiment here that this pullback is because the SP got ahead of itself a bit. My view back in 2018 was a great rise with a target SP of £16 within 10 yrs. to get to nearly 900p within 3 yrs is starting the marathon early. I’ll be buying more once it gets nearer 500p.
Cheers
Intrepid

Hi herekittykitty,

Re your comment that Tesla is 15% above where he said it was overvalued, and you won’t be listening to him anymore;

Tesla is undoubtedly overvalued currently. It’s on a PE of c. 250 whereas it’s competitors are on 9 or so.

That’s one hell of a price to pay for a stock with no real moat and lots of big competitors.

Don’t get me wrong; Tesla is a well run company with a great future; but no one will make long term gains at these prices. I expect to get 5-10x returns over 10 yrs. cannot see that happening with Tesla. Yes, they can go higher still but eventually, all that potential needs to turn into multi-decade profits and as electric cars will be replaced by hydrogen cell cars before long, that is simply to risky an outcome. I think tesla will be no higher than current price in a decade (maybe allowing for inflation) and competitors will have caught up.

But never short them; the market can remain irrational far longer than you can remain liquid.

Re darktrace; I will keep topping up in small chunks on each drop. The future needs darktrace more than the present knows.
All the best
Intrepid.

Hi Bladerunneruk
Re your comment “you’d think computers would win every day”.
The real issue is, as you highlighted, computers don’t deal with emotion; which is the computerised trading method’s Achilles heal; several meltdowns have now been caused by automated trading algorithms not understanding the emotions of the market and wider economy (which, all being about human activity, cannot be anything other than emotionally-led). So, the way to beat the machines to to fully understand human emotions in trading. I suggest you start with the excellent ‘The hour between dog and wolf’ by John Coates. Then keep investigating this hugely important area. That way, you’ll have the upper hand.
Btw, I am building a long term position in DARK. It’s likely going to 20-40 bag over the next 15 yrs from float price. so look forward to occasional dips.
All the best
Intrepid.

Hi all.
Not posted on this co’s BB before. I’ve been invested for several months and have just topped up, and will do so again if these drift to below 120p.

I almost sold out when the BoD announced the share buy-back. Buy-backs are usually a terrible idea, usually motivated by the BoDs need to hit EPS or SP targets for their own bonuses. A co entering a buy-back is basically saying they cannot think of anything better to do with the money; given they are in business, this is an admission of a lack of leadership; this is particularly true if the co happens to be an investment vehicle, as is the case here. So it’s an encouraging RNS that the BoD have changed tack.

I suspect that either the new board member insisted the policy be abandoned or the BoD realised they were wasting money and had actually made their bonuses smaller (having paid an average 179p and the SP is now 140p means they are showing a loss of c. £2.5m or 22%.

Hopefully they realise the folly/absurdity of an investment vehicle buying its own shares and what that signals to the market and they don’t attempt to do that again.

All the best
Intrepid.

Hi stellarahares.

I didn’t think one could amortise a capital loss from a takeover of another company. It’s not like it is a piece of factory equipment that is assumed obsolete after time. I am happy to be corrected on this. If it is amortisation, it will be for a capital allowance if things within those purchased companies which had not been claimed for by the purchased companies before. I can’t think of where £18m (or whatever it was) of amortisation will come from otherwise. I also assume the target companies were purchased above their book values, which should create a ‘goodwill’ entry on the balance sheet, not a loss; but I am not an accountant so again, happy to be corrected.

Either way, it’s money that is (currently) covered ten times by the available cash. This baby will be ruling the advertising world within that timeframe. It’s just not that significant an amount of ‘loss’ be it real or balance-sheet tweaking.
Cheers
Intrepid.

Hi all.
Not at all surprised by SP drop today. That’s typical market response. The run up over the last few weeks would be down to, effectively, insider trading (it always happens) and MMs happily run the SP up on that, knowing that it will likely drop back afterwards. It’s basic ‘buy the rumour, sell the news’ principle.

A reported loss on rapidly growing businesses is nothing to worry about, particularly when they have plenty of cash at their disposal.

I’ll be honest and say that I thought it would take until 2023 die the SP to break £8 but I am expecting it to get to £20 by 2026.

I am still a buyer on the dips.
Intrepid.