Member Info for Inthedark1

Hi Nige
you say;
At the moment BoJo seems to be trying to delay the collapse of NHS by decreasing peaks into several smaller peaks (from the graph I saw the area of smaller peaks was greater than the big peak). Why can't the media and Govts just accept the fact that some people will die from this, but most won't, as always used to be the case.

Are you suggesting that we shouldn't try to limit the number of deaths? I am not vulnerable but many on this board will be. My wife has asthma but is otherwise healthy. I don't accept that she has to die. My various shares and pensions and Isas have taken a complete hammering. I have recently retired and we're living on savings until our modest pensions begin in just over 1 & 2 year's time. But I don't accept that we should return to the days when people didn't know enough about infectious diseases to take action. It is better to keep braking so that those fighting to breathe in hospital can have a better chance of life rather than bringing hundreds or thousands in all at once. My oldest two sons are both working in intensive care as is my prospective daughter in law. Think of the risks they are undertaking, think of the life and death decisions they will have to make. Think of them dealing with an unremitting stream of gasping desperate people coming in as they becoming increasingly tired as their colleagues go sick. Think of the way they will have to try to take off their protective clothing when exhausted in such a way that they will not be infected before going home to sleep. And finally think of the emotional toll of dealing with this every day for weeks if not months. This is not fanciful this is what is happening 1,000 miles away in Italy. So when we worry about buying or selling shares or not please remember it is a very small worry in the scheme of things. Yes people and Govt's should and do recognise people will die from this but unless you are going to be standing there with a tube deciding who has the right to live I kindly ask that you don't suggest we let more people die than need to because of economic factors. Thanks.

Down because time limit of one year for EU trade negotiation is to be written into law, two year extension available can’t be used which raises chances of a hard Brexit after all. Probably some profit taking too - or at least a chance for some to sell closer to what they paid - especially following the 23p surge over at Taylor Wimpey?

roller coaster ride for ITV & house builders courtesy of Boris this week!

With respect I’m a celebrity is massively popular with all age groups and the format for many shows like Love Island are sold globally.

Hi TR - are they roughly equal because TW is relatively cash rich and doesn’t need to wait for shareholder approval at AGM (unlike Final)? The Board might be trying to stabilise the SP through the year by discouraging investors from dipping in and out each year? But in the other hand the Special is so large compared to other payments, surely if that was reduced and interim/final increased it would encourage confidence and SP stability? As usual, in the dark!

I understand - thanks for doing the hard work.

TR - As my name suggests I don’t know nearly enough about share/bond analysis, shorting and many other aspects of good investment. Could you point me in the direction of a good website or book that explains more? Thanks.

I think he was wondering why someone on the Board or connected to someone on the Board would sell half a million shares shortly before the ex div date (if that is what has happened). Doesn’t that sort of thing send a message? It might mean that person thinks the SP will drop by more than the dividend immediately after the Ex Div date? I don’t know - but I am pleased someone has pointed the sale out. It is another piece of information to add to the mix.

I think there is a difference in the use of social media for planting fake news stories - which spread like wildfire (people love bad news and conspiracy stories) And the use of adverts on sites like Facebook. I find the ads really annoying on my phone and look at the little button to get rid of them after 3 or 4 seconds. I honestly don’t know what they are selling. Tv adverts are sometimes well made and I think I absorb information much more readily from them. That is not to say that I welcome every ad break in the middle of a drama but somehow I have made a compact with ITV or another commercial channel was and get an ad break. I don’t know why that isn’t the case online - perhaps because I flit about on the phone or screen.

Anything is possible regarding SP. I used to own ITV when they were 17p and 280p. The day before Brexit they were 2.06, the day after they dipped to 1.42 for two minutes and then recovered to mid 1.60's and have been up a lot since then. They have scrapped the special dividend to concentrate on production, programming and building pay per view. Despite this the return is about 5.25% . ITV delivers a mass audience and will be moving into more targetted advertising. There are threats from things like Netflix and online advertising - but Netflix provides another platform to sell to and the tide may be turning against online advertising. I find it a massive irritation which somehow, while watching on a big screen is fine. I'm not quite sure why that is! Although I am disappointed with the steady decline since Brexit I am happy to take the long view and a decent dividend.

The pound has increased from about 1.18 dollars a year ago to a high now of about 1.42, given that ITV production produces about a 35-40% of ITV's profits and this money is earned in dollars might this explain part of the reason for the ITV SP languishing in the mid 1.40s? The removal of the Special Dividend presumably will also have helped to depress prices in the short term?

And you Tom. Like you I have shares in both. I’ll probably end up leaving them both where they are although the TW special is very tempting.

Hi Tom - Do you think ITV will rise more quickly than TW bearing in mind TW will probably rise to its good special Ex Div Date?

Well I was right about the Special - but wrong not to sell yesterday. Finger was hovering over the button! Bought some in a Sipp at 1.49 recently and sold at 1.57 today and bought TW at 183. Kept the vast majority of ITV though. BOL!

I'm not sure she would see it as 'shooting herself in the foot' Tom. If she believes reinvestment of surplus cash is the right policy then i imagine mit is the right policy now. And when better to act than when you've taken charge and can take the board with you. Power is often best applied when it is new? We'll soon find out anyway! Best of luck, David

In January the new CEO told staff representatives that for the last 4 years under Adam Crozier special dividends have been paid to shareholders - she said this wasn't the right approach and that spare cash should be invested in the company - programmes, The Hub etc. Now I don’t know whether the market sees this as a good thing in the short term or not. I am not a sophisticated investor but assume a withdrawal of special dividends would mean a drop in immediate SP until the results of further investment, if applied correctly, bear fruit. Or has the expectation of a withdrawal or reduction of special dividends already been factored in by big shareholders who are, i’m sure, aware of Carolyn McCall’s change of direction? What do others think?