Member Info for InJamesweTrust

Think these numbers are a tad ambitious.

US prices are c.$5.28 per scf or $5.28m for a Billion cubic feet. You gave to prove it up and get it out of the ground and to a port.

So one TCF is $5.28bn but cost to extract, return needed by investors and fund raise to.prove it up bring that number way down from $5.28bn per TCF.

An LNG train to build is multiple billions and pipelines the same depending on length.

The RNS said nothing about.flows in commercial quantities. It seems like good gas shows have been encountered but more info is needed to establish commerciality.

Starting to talk in terms of £18 valuations of £7.2bn is a but ambitious. 4TCF might be worth $20bn or c. £15bn. However, I'd say PRD needs £100m to prove that up, some will be shares and some will be convertible debt but it will be significant dilution (see Hurricane for an example). Then it takes time to prove and then serious money to extract and probably a 3-5 year timeline for any revenues all the time.pushinh up the NPV discount.

Can see 50p being attainable if MOU-4 can say those magic words on Commerciality but feel there is a way to go yet before the ticket moves from being a base metal.

GLA and hope newsflash continues to be positive.

Calling them Golden Tickets is dangerous, its still a drill into the earth with results unknown. The portents certainly look good but a top slice is never a bad thing to book a bit of profit to stay alive in the market.

Hope results are fantastic but it's not a one way bet and attempts to paint it as such are dangerous.

I am only half way through the video but adding millions of barrels to the resources and stating an aim to produce 10k barrels per day in 3 years (@$45 a barrel that's $165m per annum) on a MCAP of £49m.

I love that PRD has almost doubled on no news yet here there isn't anything happening!

Still bleary-eyed from watching golf until 3am but seems a very positive update. 500 bad + other wells to drill then a large seismic anomoly to test.

Well done AXL team

They need a majority and ad production nears it.gets harder for management to recommend a bid that clearly undervalued the asset. If key players want the asset 'cheaply' I'd say they'd need to be bidding in Q3, early Q4 latest.

Given the difference in numbers they may be happy to wait until major construction milestones are cleared.

Seems to be grinding higher in challenging markets. There are some reports from Bank of America minerals conference last week and Nickel was mentioned as one of the big materials in next 5-10years with growth at (I think from memory) 4% pa. Will read properly when travelling this week.

Marshall has been clear in the results being good and meriting a significant resource upgrade as well as an increased drilling programme. Hardly the outcome the market dictates.

It is funny, Eco was up 50%+ on prospect of a drill last Autumn before it came up dry. Axl continue to deliver and can't catch a break! Still, a rerate is likely to be required at some point.

Think Malcy has noted the need to adjust his target price upwards. Definitely good news on the well, MA not getting too carried away but quickly cash accretive and repays in little time the investment required with 2 zones still to evaluate.

What's not to like.

If they can get 2-3k barrels from CN, it gets them to 5-6k bopd which at $50 a barrel back is $250-300k per day or net between $90-108m per annum. Doesn't need many years production or much of an increase from those production levels to again move the value proposition on.

This isn't a ramp it is just a point of interest with regards to what news may come.

Was checking the presentation and didn't see too much relating to potential of the new drills in terms of possible/contingent reserves. Added a few on Friday lunch in any case as think the cashflows and story are good.

I'm wondering if we.will even get to Phase 1, or if Glencore at 75-80% will make an offer. My feeling is they will be keen to as the ability to accelerate instead of bootstrapping makes payback very short time frame for them.

One of my others is HZM and they seem to be doing what they say. It is nice to see both here at AXL and there. Look forward to when news trumps the sellers. Hopefully the step out is successful and the run of success continues.

For me the obvious acquirer is Glencore as a significant shareholder as Im sure lots on here have already surmised.
Given the potential revenues once production starts I'd imagine they'd like to swoop before we begin generating cash. So all being well I can see them making a bid around £1bn MCAP + so my guess is somewhere between £3.50 - £5.00.

Happy sparrow
Think your name might be something of a misnomer- nit exactly a bringer of joy! DRe say rainy season is a well known.phenomenon.

It's genuinely remarkable that the SP is becalmed in response to this and indeed markedly down since RCE-3 - even accounting for wider market turmoil. With current MCAP, even requirement to pay aterially higher royalties if it transpires should leave the business hugely cash generative. Frankly astonished.

Harel
Appreciate the clarification but any FI is going to be baser on this CPR. Ideally it has more pull than Orinduik for Tullow

Do we not have a share in a similar amount in Orinduik and I don't see anyone snapping Tullows hands off.
Understand the data room has been more active for this and AO do have the ability to go it alone and carry Eco, on just one drill or two or one with some cash to fund further drill share/Orinduik commitments.

For the cost of drilling on 3B/4B versus the loss of opportunity if someone farms in to Eco. I wonder if the discussions are to benchmark the market before Africa Oil offers them a carry..
Africa Oil has the funding and partnerships to do it and if they see a super field may wish to take the punt.

Pancontinental is a bit smaller than Africa Oil. So perhaps easier to push around.

Do we know the cost per barrel as say it is $25 and a price of $60 is assumed then that is $38m profit annually on a £42m MCAP....which is fairly astonishing. Need to dig deeper in to reserves and long-term production capability of the Wells but even on a 5yr plus horizon the pay back is significant