Member Info for InJamesweTrust

Harel
Just looking back to your 31 Jan Post and 15% of Venus comment. Yes, indeed 15% of that would be well.perceived by the market - looking at the MCAP Hess has added since the nadir of March 20 in no small part due to Guyana and it is an enticing prospect.
FO mention from Africa Oil does lend more credence so potentially interesting few weeks.

Got out in the 170s and free carrying now but believe there is great future here as and when the issues in Ukraine begin to subside.

Phoebus
That seems a hyperbolic statement. The most recent period expired last week and the holders now need to drill in the upcoming period to maintain the licence. It doesn't (as I understand it) lapse, just a new period starts in which activity is a minimum requirement by a set timeline.
The licence also relinquishes 15% or thereabouts of the acreage. Think we all want the Cretaceous drilled but this isn't up 6% today and 15-20% from recent levels on us losing the Orinduik licence.

That would form part of the FO but for the purposes of expediency, I'd imagine Tullow may remain operator as changing such might require more detailed approval from Guyana.
Hence, an FO might direct the drill to be X but the existing partners as well as the party farming in are required to be happy with it. Tullowndoes have 60% though

The field data such as it is, will be in the data room and form part of the cost/benefit analysis of what any bidders value the farm out at. Hence guiding their bid strategy.

With the current market cap versus potential production x price dividends here could be absolutely mind blowing as Phase II ramped up. There is always likely to be some political nervousness but if PH.II begins to be funded it would be great for PIs. However can see Glencore looking to make an offer before production starts as it is in their interests to have the supply secured and probably don't want investors to see the divi potential realised.
I forget the NAV of PH.I but think take out would need to be higher than this for what is being given up down the line. 400p plus in either A or B seems eminently sensible barring any funding or political shocks.

Not sure why you think.this, the missile attacks by Putin will potentially make the West think of allowing UKR to take on Russian interests in the near border. Putin can't and won't be allowed to succeed in his full.takeover goal.
The map now looks like what Putin needs with landbridge to Crimea and better access to the Black Sea. I can see this being declared an independent country and UKR having a.North Korea like DMZ along the border.

See there is a Sharesprophets article on prospects here written by a long term holder of the stock. Haven't read it yet.

NATO can't allow Putin victory in Ukraine as to do so will embolden him and he is clearly unhinged or becoming so for taking the decision to invade in the first place.
Russian comes channels are very much discussing what withdrawl conditions might need to be. This to me is indicative that it is nearer to the beginning of the end, rather than the end of the beginning. All those sanctioned individuals will be missing their yachts, kids schools and Ski chalets and Summer villas so the pressure will be mounting on Putin.
How much he is in thrall to China who are just using it as a Taiwan experiment may run contra to above buy even then China has probably seen what it needs to in terms of response.
Going to be a bumpy few years geopolitically but nearing the end of hostilities in UKR can only be a huge positive for FXPO

Missed the presentation but there are definitely potential catalysts. It's O&G so always a risk but Eco has more going for it than many.

I'm still working through the history here as looking to build.
Mgmt indicate they have sufficient supply to meet demand. During the early stages of the war I'd imagine supply was constrained even if production was not hence there may be some fairly significant stockpiles. Equally, mgmt or costs can claim Force Majeure or MAC in their contracts and if there are contracts with fixed delivery pricing these may be prioritised and spot contracts sacrificed for now thus managing demand and protecting revenue per tonne.
While not an essential service, the employment and hard currency it wld bring to Ukr post war is rather important.
Management are subject to London listing regs so if there was material concern it would be incumbent for them to have updated markets.

Marvin
AOI has $200m in cash and when the Prime licence renews a $200m debt facility. I'd imagine at £60m MCAP, they would make a cash offer rather than dilute their own stock. They have been doing share buy backs.
LTT - AOI has a blocking stake so it isn't so simple for another company to just come in and buy us.
The question then is how confident are Gil and Colin they can farm out Namibia and get more drilling and cash to cover any activity in Guyana? They have significant shares but may get a sweetheart deal to fold theirs into AOI unlike everyone else (this can be done via comp package so as not to differentiate in the offer).
Folk raised questions.about the positioning of the drill and how targets were being approached pre drill. I wonder if we went too far beyond the limits of the field boundary and were too ambitious.

Starting to accumulate a few here.as think it has bounced off the.placing lows. Great prospects so keen to the Orion video if there is a link.

Strikes me with these missiles (of which Russia has fewer and fewer) and the scorched earth vandalism of the retreating Army that Putin may be laying the ground for a "We have punished the Nazis" narrative and will leave with Crimea and some of either Luhansk/Donbass or both.
US is beginning to push Zelensky to consider peace and better protection from RUS going forward with beefing up Polish bases and being ready for action sooner to any Russian encroachment.

Yes sorry probably Namibia not 3B/4B.

Given Keith Hills comments and the change in MCAP today versus what a discovery would have done. I can see a bid from AOI being a potential move.
They will have some knowledge of the farm out process and with Venus and Gazania knowledge a keen insight about the whole Atlantic margin. Think they have around 30%, hence a take out would be £50m plus premium.

I think the cost over run will be significant, however I believe the target for farming out 3B/4B is to yield several tens of millions in cash as well as a carry on drilling.
Hence, although there will be an impact to the P&L it should be alleviated swiftly.

Disappointment clearly but its a wildcat well and nothing guaranteed, hence not for widows/orphans. Likely a hefty drop as can be seen looking like 17p but that is how it goes.
There will likely be a farm out but the SP will drift until such time and based on Gazania may not shift too much until nearer the drill time of those wells as/when they may happen.
Hopefully all OK and not too badly affected by it - the presence of "I told you sos" on these boards never ceases to amaze but it's been an interesting few months.

This may age badly but I would expect news on Gazania and plans on farm out prior to the Breakfast on the 29th.
Some positive news on both and we shall all be rather pleased.
On timing - I'm sure there were extended timeliness on Guyana drills and Tullow remained silent. They are drilling, until complete it is up to management when to relay info.

If you loom at international commentary, it mostly thought the missile came from Russia or was fired to counter a Russian missile. Zelensky isn't randomly targeting Poland to start WW3, he didn't ask for this conflict- Madputin started it.
The end game is likely nearing and Russia may retreat to what it had before perhaps with some of Donnbass to save blushes.
That can only be a good thing here ultimately but not beyond the pale to think Putin will go out with a bang - or.lots of them and what that may mean for Ukraine.

Still my intention to add some more, will see where she settles this morning and take from there