Member Info for InJamesweTrust

It's not a positive update its an update with little definition around the questions most often posed here. Rig and Sandjet timing.

I'd also take issue with £440k not being enough in Directors fees along with options that they're paying themselves £200k plus for producing reports just because they didn't go to a third party, Come on.

Any thoughts on the $500k spanked on useless PH.1 testing.

The markets do not have access to all of the data but there is as yet no certainty without testing and as another poster says, he has had plenty of time to execute this.

Markets also don't like CEOs that take their eyes off the ball by their own admission.

It's kind of all noise just now until we know more about the Sandjet timings and the MOU-5 test date.

Success with Sandjet materially changes the game, imagine BoD would prefer to complete both in a similar timeline - issues with one may be offset by success in other.

Time will tell but PG unfortunately has indicated delays are no concern of his and he won't apologise even if they do occur.

My memory indicates 3k bopd nets back to around $4.5m monthly. Recall netbacks being c.$50 per barrel.

So 10k bopd is $175m p.a. setback, FCF which even on a stingy multiple of 3x is way above current MCAP.

3k bopd netback of $4.5m per month is $54m p.a. so the MCAP is around 1.5x FCF on a backward looking basis which is pretty poor.

Ironically PG retiring would likely see a wider management team brought in and the speed of realisation improve ad management bandwidth does.

However, he is well connected locally as is Lonny and that as GRH suggests is a relationship to carefully manage. There are though plenty of potential candidiates waiting for VR or packages at Majors who could come in and do the work as would Schlumberger for a fee so the health of Paul is not really anything to speculate on and to do so is rather unedifying.

The BoD is in touch with large shareholders who have experience in the industry also and there is a circle that know the company very well.

Speed of delivery might be a concern for me (which I hope in April/May will prove to be historic) but the health of management isn't so much of one execpt as to wish them well.

Av

Flip side also true- worth acknowledging positives/potential

Muckle

Don't think I was doing anything with TheBold but happy to be enlightened?!

Just suggesting one drill might be preferred over another and OHNYM ultimately holds the ace on permitting

Good to note OHNYM had a 25% share in Chariots upcoming drill ' the 3 prospects total 74bcf.

Now, if I was the Moroccan government and looking at drilling priorities in the area I'd personally be tempted to prioritise Geurcif over Chariots drills. Hundreds of bcf potentially even greater than 1 TCF is a bit of a bigger prize.

Just what my thinking would be and believe we also have an option on the drill.

He did but preso says coiled tubing available end April. Think it is easier to push through customs than a tonne of sand though (thought Morocco would have plenty of that!!)

He mentioned they will get the Sandjet equipment in mid-April - so that depends if he meant on site or in country.

Fox Davies has the wireless testing results scheduled around end April.

The coiled tubing is stated as end April though on preso which is a bit different to what he says himself.

This makes me rethink my own dates of late April/early May for results. More to early-mid May at soonest.

Got to love O&G timelines but only 9 months after originally proposed date because eyes were off the ball!!

The bold

I'm curious where your dates are from on rigless testing? Thanks

Let's look at CNG, if gas flows there is an agreement ready-to-go for gas sales where 120bcf nets $1.56bn. Now, if flow rates are in excess of that expected it be 2-300 bcf that is contemplated for sale.

That might be 3% or less or the prospective resources (outside Mou-5) and if allowing sale of 3% for a material amount allows 20-30x that to be proven.up I'd say it constitutes a good deal.

Added bonus if it yields a divi/puts a stronger base under the SP. That could be the case after Sandjet so end April/early May if targets met.

Gudin

The idea being, if majors aren't biting (500 TCF isn't enough it seems!!!) Then using PE to fund CNG and share profit along with an upfront fee allows PRD to drill, test and prove.

Only hope the test bit is quicker than in the past or I'll be PG's age by the time they finish it on 25 years.

Should add that despite the delays the potential reward remains strong just extended timelines continue to frustrate a bit. Even taking into account usual O&G fun and games.

wouldn't advocate the hoopla that existed around sound and talk of golden tickets. many people lost a significant amount as a result of it.

nor would i advocate telling pis to **** off somewhere else if you don't like management taking their eye off the ball by their own admission leading to delays currently running around 7 months to proposed sept testing.

i'm sure there is a happy middle ground.

as for pe, if grh knows something he is then an insider otherwise chat about bank managers being happy soon, goes along with his sept pronouncements about imminent.

we don't know the timings but management shouldn't be obstructing them with lack of attention.

things can move fast and change quickly so let's see what april brings. hopefully.testing, finally.

EC6

Can be funded by anyone with deep enough pockets and the appetite, knowledge.

HMatt

The $1.56bn mentioned by PG is gross based on $13 per mscf. So over 120bcf it comes out at $1.56bn.

That's gross so you could take out a reasonable chunk depending on costs incurred/price at wellhead and then work out what PE need as a return and discount further to reflect.

If it flows well then the aim may be for more than 120bcf and fund through a PE deal for upfront cash and rev share or just straight cash in two stages, development then main chunk once taps are opened.

How many well heads and mscf pd are needed to achieve the $150m net......

Assuming net revenue is $150m on a 10yr NPV12 it is $847.5m by my reckoning.

Suggesting a TSR is replete with potential for brickbats and ridicule but we are all in this for a return on investment from the current price label or we would have sold.

How much will that be - £15 would be great but is over time. J23 mentioned around 2.5 TCF if I recall in response to the 7 TCF and if I'm right MOU-5 looks bigger potentially.

So if they can prove up the CPR best estimate of 700bcf it is probably worth a couple of quid a share. With ratchets for proving up by further drilling this could easily see further payments down the line.

What would 5 TCF br worth?

So someone asked if MOU-5 might produce $14bn in gross revenues and Paul confirmed the potential. PRD as an early seller would be lucky to see 20% of this. That is a fiver a share.

For other areas Paul suggested 120 bcf under CNG would produce revenues of $1.56bn. Not sure od this but even at $1bn per TCF instead of 80bcf that is another $2.5bn taking costs out is maybe 60% so 1.5bn or another £3.

I'd reckon above is pretty blue-sky thinking for now but there is definite potential.

Suggesting a TSR is replete with potent