Member Info for InJamesweTrust

JWBellamy

You're posting as I'd expect from a J Beadle if he was still alive.

We are £35m MCAP, about yo have $20m cash on balance sheet and a carry worth up to $216m from one of the largest Majors in O&G globally.

This is an exploration share, they are never going to be a producer without partners. They have that now.

Total have the benefit of their local discoveries and how the seismic looked there and will have looked to see how this is similar to Ecos acreage. They've seen enough to give Eco and Acrica Oil significant carry and become Operator of the licence. Quite how you think that isn't worth the current MCAP is frankly daft in my view.

I'll be adding significantly here (for me) over the period up to drilling results.

It's quite natural for.OHNYM to flex muscles on new agreements. As/when/if there is a commercial find it gives them a bigger chip to play with at the table.

The ultimate impact on us as shareholders is likely to be negligible but their share of royalties and carry will likely move some in the even of a Corporate Action.

There will however be enough language in the agreements to protect t PRD, around not to be unreasonably with help, areas length agreements, related parry transactions extension based on discharge of required duties/exploration activities etc.

PRD are happy they have completed all required of them, although it occurred late in the day so I'd not expect any issue. Even if agreements stated 5 Feb and weather meant 10 Feb such adjustments are often permitted in contracts and default provisions don't kick in immediately but have cure periods etc so there is likely to be no drama in that regard

The cash is quite an important bit, Eco is less at the mercy of other parties in terms of activity in Orinduik.

This should hit 30p + before the drill but the time to completion and time to actual drilling is some time away yet. Good to see the team get a win.

If they're drilling major targets, 6.25% of the first drill could be much more valuable than 15% of Joe/Jethro was considered to be 3.5 years ago.

Porters

The recent note from FD&P suggests results are hoped around late April.

Given timing suggested for MOU-5 this would likely see Sandjet results coincide with drilling results. Believe they have signed for the SV-101 rig in late Q1/early Q2.

GRH has indicated if you want to do M&A have as much value proven at the time as you can. Obviously they have to prove value exists for there to be any interest but aligning the timing of the outcomes would seem sensible in this regard.

Not suggesting the bumps in the road have been part of a grand plan but fortuitous happenstance may have made it feasible. Least it will be fortuitous if there is gas there!!!

Oily it isn't a threat, its a joke.

Get over yourself.

OilyFred

I feel when many meet you they might have a desire to become The Boxer.

To continue your theme, The BoD may not Keep the Customer Satisfied but I think we are Homeward Bound to whatever the results will be.

However, their customer is more OHNYM not shareholders.

Warning to those sensitive to speculation, some incoming.

Based on the Fox Davies note, Sandjet testing results are potentially expected end April.

Working back they need kit on site and team booked.

Additionally, MOU-5 scheduled for April/May.

As GRH alludes to this gets many of the ducks in a row for results simultaneously/in close succession.

I would imagine come the presentation on 14th March - company prob hopes next agreement with Morocco is signed and the activity schedule for upcoming drill and testing is finalised.

This would give a 6-8 week window following meeting for testing and drilling to occur.

Excellent post BRV - there can often be negative surprises. I still think back to holding Eco until the hundreds of millions of barrels proved be heavy and sour.

Was on a free ride but still a sore one.

Fwiw with various intervals I'd think SJ should work in some of them at least to show is if gas is commercial.

Only have here what I don't mind losing though as geology is never nailed on.

Do take comfort from BoD wanting Sandjet from the outset and it isn't just a knee jerk to the explosive perforating issue.

Ford 707

Given there are multiple intervals and wells I'd be very surprised if all were clagged beyond reprieve with drilling mud.

Like you say the company believes Sand Jet will do the trick.

Only four of the several zones were tested in Phase 1 as rhe company seems to have taken the view up sticks and get to Sand Jet we have fulfilled what was required.

My understanding is Sand Jet results could be in as little as 6 weeks then all the navel gazing will be over and we will know definitively if it has worked and how the 99.7% gas shows flow.

Like many have said, the wells were overpressure on drilling for a reason.

Given the drilling cost a sidetrack is unlikely to be ruinous expensive to plans if required. I would guess it will not be based on comms.

There may be alot of people with a red rose in their lapel and carrying a copy of The Times.

Nigel

For CNG, believe it is a relatively simple construct and could be raised on the back of income from AG contract once HoTs are formalised either via debt, equity or through AG upfront cash for favourable sales terms.

As for FEED, we will not be the operator when/if such decisions and information is required. We may have a stub but will have sold out. Think the BoD would realise and OHNYM probably insist that of the reserves extend beyond CNG plan and into gas for grid/export that a greater level of technical input will be required.

So a panic raise is not on the cards and if one is required for above reasons it will not be significantly dilutive and much value will already have accrued.

There is still appetite to lend with MoZ LNG and AMUR GPP attracting tens of billions in debt funding relatively easily.

Nigel

For CNG, believe it is a relatively simple construct and could be raised on the back of income from AG contract once HoTs are formalised either via debt, equity or through AG upfront cash for favourable sales terms.

As for FEED, we will not be the operator when/if such decisions and information is required. We may have a stub but will have sold out. Think the BoD would realise and OHNYM probably insist that of the reserves extend beyond CNG plan and into gas for grid/export that a greater level of technical input will be required.

So a panic raise is not on the cards and if one is required for above reasons it will not be significantly dilutive and much value will already have accrued.

Fully funded for Ph.2 and Mou5- there was always expected to be time between phases and Mou5 to be in April/May.

Expectation of cash to agree CNG deal funds any explrn might require.

Just Google the event and you can register fairly easily. Have just done so as hold Arrow in the risk fund too.

HBob

The top of the salary range for A2 in the branch is from what I can see about £22 an hour. From what I can see online it is far from minimum wage.

The cost of childcare is crazy though - £75 a day ina class of probably 8-12. So the nursery is getting £600-900 per day for probably two nursery workers who are on minimum wage and cost them £90 each per day. That leaves alot for overheads and profit.

Alas, we should not be subsidising shareholders and think employers of 500 or more should be required to pay the Living Wage. With in work benefits being reduced accordingly.

I'm all for social transfer payments but the amount I pay in tax, then in school fees and now they want to add VAT is astonishing. We looked at moving house recently and stamp duty was in six figures, where does it stop.

CCC

All the best to you and your wife.

The system is unfortunately shambolic as it doesn't give the support required where needed.

That this can be the case with the highest level of govt spending in peacetime beggars belief.

Nigel

I'm relaxed about people's trading strategies and have mentioned previously that I feel resources are likely closer to Jimmy's estimate than the multi TCF.

However, I wouldn't dismiss the other posters and they do add knowledge and info regarding O&G. I've done some O&G stuff myself but on the Finance not the hands dirty side and one can get enough terminology to gain comfort that the risks are what they are.

It's perfectly feasible for others to hold strong views on the size of the prize.

I'll take what is on the board and augment with my own research/review to keep my position under review. There are many useful posters on here.

Without wishing to put words in his mouth it is likely from the satellite imagery that was indicating the drill pad activity.

It is clearly stated he is speculating and much like the internet, the hive mind of the posters on here with useful O&G knowledge is something I'll gladly take to aid my understanding.

I'll also listen to the negatives but do get bored of negative for negative sake.

Fwiw I think it suits OHNYM and Morocco to have PRD involved. If one sought to replicate the kleptocracy or Saudi Arabia then there would be uproar.

Hence with PRD it is a commercial operator agreeing arms length deals (even if arms twisted a bit) with in country partners.

There have been plenty of opportunities to usurp the operator and it hasn't been done and I don't expect it to be now.

OHNYM will want an international operator to partner with if the gas is there to accelerate things and disenfranchising parties is not a good way to do it - dare say BP regret the TNK-BP venture.

So think Amendment #4 should be relatively straight forward.

Given the desire for sandjet as stated last year, the redesign of sandjet hopefully allows testing soon.

On the basis of the SP impact of the news, I have bought some more today.

It remains very possible for geology to do something unexpected (in either direction) bit overall risk reward is reasonably.balanced.