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BRV

I'm sure I saw quotes from the Head of Siemens stating that gas was the most cost effective and quickest way to power up vs renewables (a major market for them). He also stated hydrogen use in industry short tern was pie in the sky. Additionally, that even with Battery Electric Storage that gas stores would still be needed as back up when winds were not strong enough.

Recently, winds have been below average forecasts for the last 3 years in Western Europe.

Gas isn't quite so behaviourally volatile.

Good news here might assuage the news of losing the great Steve Wright yesterday. Soundtrack to much of my goings on since teens on R1 then R2 and a great replacement on Pick of the Pops on a Saturday when toing and froing to children's sports. RIP Steve

Sometimes we are a bit insular here in the UK, the ESG agenda our banks are proponents of is not quite so evident at an international level.

International banks are quite content to fund O&G developments including until just before the Ukraine war to Gazprom and to do so our of their international branches in London as well as further afield.

Indeed a major LNG project will be refinanced if not already by a syndicate with banks taking tickets of a billion each.

This in addition to oil majors having strong balance sheets means funding is not likely to be an issue for the right sponsor.

Ibiza

Apologies if it seemed critical, not my intention.

I'm also suggesting there should be an RNS to mark end of Ph1. May take a little time to discuss with partners is the potential for delay.

The GSA should be executable quickly I'd hope hence the time spent on it in Q4'23 one hopes.

Ther are all sorts of permutations which might involve AG taking on the initial CNG then signing an option at a price matrix on volume proven up to be the buyer of the assets (assuming commercial quantities and flows).

OHNYM and gov may want to see AG become their own version of AGIP/Total/Shell and so have their eyes on taking the assets from the licence to then work up with a chosen partner.

As for reference to "The End of the Line" I think this is close. If anyone hasn't had a look at how the band came about, it is well worth a Google to read the story of how The Travelling Wilburys were formed.

There should be news imminent, one way or another.

Ibiza

The RNS generating machine may be out of batteries or getting serviced. I'd expect a material discovery to be RNS'able but time can be bought as it needs to be assessed and discussed with OHNYM.

Would suggest given that testing was to take up to 14 days in PH.1 this should be coming to a conclusion.

Would be nice as a shareholder if the company shared news on results. Not sure they can keep a lid on things until the Ph.2 and Jurassic drilling.

I see posts on X saying The end of the line - let's hope results are finally close for us all.

Don't think outcome of testing is know as positive commercial flows would see the MCAP a sight more than £78m I'd wager.

All sorts of NPVs flying around but 20mscf plus should see SP 35-40p or more aid have thought.

Communication between testing zones and better than expected news might see this be Conservative.

Cove was also a minority player in the licence and so very much a price taker. I don't think any of their shareholders were interested in holding to production via carry.

Many here probably wish to see value crystallise sooner than later if it is commercial. Talk of price per TCF and then figures of 60 TCF won't translate as getting 60 TCF out of the ground is a huge undertaking.

Suffice to say, if we get to a multi TCF case and the figure per TCF is £1.00-1.50 then all would be fairly pleased with the outcome.

An interesting aside might be which way Moroccan govt swings between Western Oil Major and BRICS partner given geo politics.

Let's hope we are faced with seeing such decisions.

For the CNG, I'd think Afriquia gaz and govt will be keen to take early control for a price and Moroccan interest in purchasers may affect price also.

We will find out the first part around flow and commercialitu soon.

As for back debt, majors are replete with cash and don't need to fund so much via debt. Plus alot of cash is fungible so bank debt can go to ESG efforts while FCF goes to acquisition.

Sam

Think that is exactly what they're seeking to do.

Whether it is SP/Special Divi or a mix and staged as the geology reveals itself. I'd wager initial special divi for CNG then the drill to see what Jurassic does or doesn't hold.

Then a partial sale for a special divi, stump equity and see what becomes of T&T/Ireland.

GRH and others know the geology alot better than myself. I know what is on diagrams sometimes doesn't tally with what the drillbit sees but think the chances here are strong of commercial gas flows then it is a matter of how wide an area the gas basin covers.

Jimmy

Not a million miles off from your own thoughts, multi TCF finds are vanishingly rare.

I think >1 TCF is possible (maybe not probable yet) but would be delighted to be proved wrong ro the upside.

Shakeywrbooty

I wouldn't ascribe too much value in a model to either CM or Ireland assets currently. So in terms of £15 TSR their current value is de minimus.

For me in the day job looking at value of assets across Project and Leveraged Finance businesses I simply wouldn't put any number on them that was material in a £multi billion calculation

Jimmy

Thanks if my understanding is correct, any larger finds will be gas to power and if we discount to $1m per BCF than that is $1bn per TCF and with economies on value as volumes get bigger think that aligns to the $10bn needing 15TCF ish to get the £15 per share TSR.

I do think as mentioned the BoD will look to monetise aspects quickly, removing top slicing concerns for some.

LochNez

I'm fully aware of onshore vs offshore differences.

Not many $10bn deals are done and we will need multi TCF to get close.

I would say the BoD likely are targeting a special divi and then Jurassic exploration to sell on and retain stump equity and another special divi.

There is a lot of drilling & testing still to do and in this political environment execution risk is higher than it has been for some time.

Androcles

Think a TSR of £15 would be fairly challenging much as you do.

Note when Apache discovered oil off Suriname - Total paid $100m, half of costs to date and $5bn cash carry on E&P spend.

Getting to £15 is $10bn so needs something bigger than Apache has found off Suriname.

Getting a find of a TCF case certainly gets us past £1.00/£1.50 I'd reckon.

Hence needs probably 15TCF + to get close to the 1,000 bagger from 1.5p.

Can it, yes will it - I think more realistic to think in terms of 1-3 TCF.

Androcles

Absolutely, I think they would like to retain an interest but can't see them developing as the scale up in expertise is an enormous ask.

GRH has mentioned this is in terms of market cap not with regard to the original 1.5p.share price. Hence, I'd suggest the reference point is a market cap of c.£1.5-3bn depending on entry point.

That is obviously still quite a journey from where we are today.

Successfully Phase1 probably gets this to 25-40% of the way to the lower bound (£1.5bn MCAP) of this range.

Notice they state " the pipeline is a benefit for any future developer of the MOU-5 asset"

Seems clear a prove up and sell strategy.

CCC

Re your Shaikan post, great analogy

At the rugby club we used to have aname for such specimens, BOBFOC

Body Off Baywatch Face Off Crimewatch

KeithOz

Understand FoxDavies presence but more a friendly voice who is aligned on the success front to help BoD assess options.

BRV

Given the involvement of Arlfriquia Gaz and the PM I've had a sneaking suspicion a govt organised consortium might be making a bifd for assets on successful testing. This allows AG to get CNG up and running for commercial purposes and potentially allow PRD to drill the Jurassic and then bring in a major to develop the wider field if the assets are shown to be sufficiently commercial.

Appointment of an Investment Bank as advisor would have needed an RNS - employing a consultant experiences in such a arena who may not need much remuneration as already has a significant stake in the success case would not need an RNS.

Bowls'd

Would say this is a sensible timeline perhaps even beyond as Morroccan authorities will want to ve confident of any announcements too.

For KeithOz - wlud just say ordinarily NPV of a project doesn't equate to Shareholder value due to execution risk etc but when one considers the follow on potential etc which you mention but deliberately didn't factor then something between the 60-150p price level on successful tests would seem achievable.

GLA