Member Info for IndridCold

ccc

where are you getting this from?

sounds good but just wanted to check if its not just a gut feel?

"If you can provide other corroborated examples then please do and I will with pleasure, correct my figures accordingly"

hi mikey, thats my point, there is simply no deal metrics out there that you can value GKP on

addax had assets elsewhere, the deal is a decade old etc.........i dont think it is suitable to draw comparisons from that deal

but do i know of a better one, no.......again there isnt any really

$7/barrel might turn out to be ramping or de-ramping, no one can call that, too many unknowns

on the subject of "calls" and "unknowns" i notice that simpleton bigdog over on advfn has been dressing up his uneducated and non-experienced view as fact yet again, i think this guy is only second to 111notout in terms of incorrect calls!

why is it those that sell out for huge losses always hang around like bad smells, peddling false stories of inside knowledge and the selling the illusion they know more than everyone else, well the illusion they know anything at all!

"based on the Addax buy out"

mikey when did that happen? 2009 i recall..................do you think basing your current assumptions on a deal that took place about a decade ago is prudent?

riptonk

fair SP now is between 250p-300p - if we werent in kurdistan (but everything else still equal) it would be 600p!

angina hasnt mentioned increased production in his £23 target, he specifically referenced current payments so he must be talking about production right now........hence why "right now" i am saying a £23 valuation is way off

but yes its a whole different ball game at 55k or 75k or 110k.......unfortunately GKP dont hit their milestones with any conviction and usually with delays

for what it is worth i am a GKP bull, yes we might dip down to 200p again if POO comes down or tensions flare up in the region or the politics sour, but long term GKP will head north

a "buyout" figure you ask.........as you allude to it all depends on when it happens and what the new PSC looks like, POO, our production level, the politics............. i wouldnt even pretend to know how all that is guna play out at certain times

reality is market puts us at 270p, if a buyer comes in they will try to get us as cheaply as possible, thats business.............if there is more than one bidder, then of course that changes to game, but only one interested party, they are guna offer maybe 30-40% premium.......and with bond-holders and hedge funds as our biggest shareholders beware of the quick acceptance at a price that would not make a lot of people happy

if we can hold out, get production up over 55k, POO steadily increases to $90 in the years to come, we should be looking at the 500-750p trading range and a take out then might reach 900-1000p

angina

GKP's last payment was less than $12mil net

"revenue is around $10/bbl".......................what about profit per barrel, isnt that more important?

yeh your calc's do come out at £23.40p (well £23.37.65027p to be precise, ha!)

"Did you think the number should be bigger ?"

no smaller, quite a bit smaller

i hope it is as big as you say but this is GKP, i doubt it will be

"A buyer would look basically at our PSC, revenue, 2P reserves and how much of it they could earn:
I make that = £23.40/share."

angina - i did read you wrote, and i have copied it into this post so you cant twist your own words

so you didnt actually say its is the 2p numbers that solely relates to £23.40

and you didnt even explain what valuation metric you are using for 2p numbers?

and why are you taking such a broad brush approach when every asset across the world is subject to so many variations, shaikan is heavy heavy oil, it has one of the lowest values on the planet

how or when ever did 10% of "lookahead value" (made up terminology) become traditional?

so your coincidence of the SP being set at 230p (which it isnt now) is nonsense

the next several lines of your latest post are just speculation but aside to that fact it still doesnt and any meat to the bones of your lofty valuation

"It becomes a risk/revenue driven calculation with a basket of variables, and we don't hold all the current facts"

exactly, so you have just admitted your £23 valuation isnt based on ALL the facts, so by default it is a pure guess and an uneducated one at that

"And your contribution is ?"

errrrrrrr, challenging spurious unsubstantiated claims about takeout valuations way in excess of any real world likelihoods

"A buyer would look basically at our PSC, revenue, 2P reserves and how much of it they could earn:
I make that = £23.40/share"

its all well and good saying they can look at this and that and then just state a sky high figure, but how have you actually got there?

what ever comes GKP way in terms of profit per barrel is the only thing that really matters if you are talking about what a prospective buyer "could earn"

i mean what company is worth more the one that has 300mil 2P reserves and gets to see $30 a barrel profit, or the company with 2 billion 2P reserves and gets to see $2 a barrel profit

and if the company is worth £23.40 in a sale, then why is it trading at approx 90% discount to that?

there is reality........and then there is fantasy

this AIM........lack of immediate news flow = drift lower

look at the volumes, they tell the true story, nothing has changed

if you cant wait for FID then sell, simples

"what does the 'cy' terminology mean/refer to"

cockeye

pretty sure it is an abbreviation of "company"

You gotta larf at all these balance sheet experts that come on here and purely value a stock based on cash and/or what the price was just before the divi was paid/announced

Apartently Etinde has zero value.......lol

well the price was sub 212p all morning and the "sell" supposedly went through at 216p.............you tell me if that makes sense.......?

posts being removed by oilman and the likes as they dont like being outed, you them some cold hard truths and its running to the moderators

"You are a despicable piece of trash - in all of your iterations"

BB, do you not think that is rather hypocritical when you are always defending (and sometimes even praising!) the likes of bigdog and oilman - the likes of who are proven liars and conduct themselves in a spiteful and infantile manner every time they log on?

dont fall for broadfrauds BS, he may be more intelligent and eloquent than the other 2 that make up the "fraudulent few", hotdog and oilymanchild over on ADVFN, but make no mistake his agenda and the amount of lies he is willing to peddle is on par with them. BB just has the common sense to camouflage some of the lying, where as oilymanchild and hotdog are just simply too thick to do the same

but mikey you had been caught lying about sh7

and also consistently posting up absolute nonsense how a falling share price just means insti's are loading up

so in your mind the selling from £4.65 in old money (which is £465.00 in todays money) was all down to instis loading up and just taking shares from pi's, at every stage yeh? so all the instis are sitting on 90%+ losses now too, right?

"I note the traded volumes have continued to decline over the past few weeks which my broker believes often precedes a corporate transaction"

absolute nonsense

COC have a deal sorted already IMO, albeit in pencil, should have a price per 1p and 2p numbers (not sure they will have anything for just resources) and that is all subject to FID.............cant see BLVN around in 2020

only thing in my mind is the price COC have got us. with their 30% i assume they have negotiated for top dollar bearing in mind their negotiating position isnt the strongest in the world

question is do the CEO's 10 million 45p options trigger at a 30p sale because 15p has already been paid out, or are they going to get 45p on top of that 15p divi - meaning 60p sale in total for shareholders

hoping the latter, but thats top end, cant really see much over 60p.........

"I have no knowledge of how the stock exchange works"

"Like I said I know nothing...."

hello oilman

monotonous clown

Don’t be bitter, one day you’ll get it right one day