Member Info for Icarus42

Steve E60,
My risk tolerance and trading style is different to yours.
I will from occasionally take a punt like pdl but mostly I stick to large caps so I would not trade AA ,its too small and lots of debt.
You should take what I say about oil as just my individual guess which has no more weight than anyone elses.
Recently some of what I have bought includes Shell ,Smith &Nephew,L&G,Barclays and Schroders nothing too exciting and will hold for a while and would add to these if they break below their recent lows only if the S/P 500 heads south and breaks its cycle low.
Re Gold I now have a fairly big position in Fres which I will sell on any consolidation above 8.
So Steve E60, thats some of what I have and may well be wrong,I think they are too boring for your style but they are solid companies and I think younger traders with less experience would be better served trading these rather small caps balanced precipitously on the rim of the void.
Best of luck Steve E60.

Steve E60,
The bet on the small mid caps is if Brent can get above 50 and stay there then money will be made.I just cant see Brent doing that in a time frame that will allow these small mid caps to survive and I believe they are all bust at current oil prices.
For me the risk is too great.
There has been great buys in the larger caps with great vol without the risk of being stuck in something that could easily go bust eg Petra !
Good escape with tlw,not many would have had the stomach to buy again at 12p.

Have to play the vol Steve E60,incredible price action.
I still think lower on the cards but difficult to call as quality info is difficult to get and changes every hour.
Pdl is stirring a bit so hopefully still game on,not holding my breath though !
Best of luck

Radar,
One cannot know where the bottom is that is why I advocated a half position at these levels and use the s/p 500 levels for a second entry.That is the way I trade.
I believe buy and hold and so called long term "investing" is dead and has been for many years.The FTSE100 is lower now than it was 20yrs ago !If you exclude Tech a lot of large caps have gone nowhere.
In my view the next 10 yrs will not be kind to buy and hold either,instead it will be a traders market,buying low sell high,judging where these low/high levels is where the money will be made.I do not advocate short term trading as very few can do it consistently.People were happy buying BIRG at 6 and now when it is at 1.6 they are too scared,it never made sense to me,shares are one of the few things that when they are cheap people wont buy them !!,but some do and as always happens,bears will get trapped in and bulls trapped out as shares move up.
In my view,buy low,sell high and then wait;sounds easy, but very few have the patience for it.
If people arent going to buy at these levels,with a trading plan and with money that is not needed for the next 12-24months they are in the wrong business , no need to bet the farm.
Say this bottoms at 1,what is a reasonable target ?.in my view 3, which was resistance and is the first area above which a lot of bulls are trapped and likely to sell and be thrilled to break even.
Each to their own Radar and best of luck to you.I know what my plan is,caveat emptor etc.

I would not be overly confident re time frame.
My own view,and again I could well be wrong,is that a half position at these levels and an other half sub 1 esp if the S/P 500 dips below 2k is a decent trade plan and if one has a timeframe longer than 1yr money should be made.If one has not made money then either BIRG has been nationalised or we are in 1929 type global depression.Short term trading in this environment looks enticing but easily stopped out with the volatility.
Best of luck and health to all.

I think half a normal trade size at these levels and the other half if it goes sub 1 is a reasonable plan.
The ECB has effectively that it will do whatever it takes re soverign/corporate debt.
It is pro corona bonds(Germans say no) and if it wants banks to lend it will have to act as guarantor as banks have reluctantly cut the divi but they sure as hell are not going to lend in this climate.
If one believes that this is worse than 2008 and that there will be no return to some form of normality this year then equities should be avoided at any price,my bet is on the opposite.The short term risk re an entry is that I think there is too much complacency in the US and further falls there will pull the BIRG price down.
Best of luck,each to there own and its great to see such divergent views on this board.

Not in the last few sessions !

I sold at 61p,had to take the profit in these uncertain times.
I will reload @32p if it gets there prior to the court decision.
Well done on BB.

Doing great Steve E60,
Playing more in the big caps space and have been v active long and short,the vol is great big swings in the large caps and safer.I have looked at the AA a Few times but it has too much debt,not so sure the news today was that great,covid has no material impact ..yet.I find it hard to believe E60 and the yet is pertinent.I am just not sure it will survive,a bit like this little puppy.Best of luck if you are in it.

We think that We are bull.hitting !

When markets bottom and the virus becomes less of an issue I expect an explosive rally.
Remember,that in 1919/1920 Spanish flu pandemic what followed was the roaring twenties,I anticipate something similiar.
There is so much stimulus unleashed that bonds will fall and inflation may finally begin to rise with interest rates normalising with a gradual rise.Would not banks benefit ??
Forget all the doom and gloom merchants,yes BIRG could easily fall 50% as I dont think the US markets have bottomed .
But for goodness sake dont miss an opportunity of a lifetime,anyone with a timespan of >12mths will in my view make money.I dont which to sound insensitve talking about money but this is a stock market forum after all !!!.
Best of luck

Not looking good,
Clutching at straws,but if Petra can claim a force majeure then it may enhance its negotiating position with creditors.
Best of luck to all,its only money folks and great opportunites in the larger caps,one doesnt always need to play in the riskier end of the casino.

P Gee,
With all due respect,
Trading volume and liquidity are not the same ie higher trading volume does not in itself equate to greater liquidity.

Buybacks are a complete no-no currently and I will be surprised if BIRG doesnt cut/cancel the dividend.
It would not be wise for income seekers to buy here thinking the divi is secure because its not.
BIRG is being hit as all banks are and not surprising given the macro bombshell that IRL and UK are enduring.
It is also more illiquid hence its volatility,a little buying/selling will move it fast and far.

Price action is similar to 2008,then it was property and financials with the wider economy as collateral damage.Now it is the wider economy with financials and property as collateral damage.Will printing money solve the problem this time ?,my view is it will as the system will have to support companies with temporary demand destruction.
But,It is clear that return of demand will not come until people feel safe which currently they most certainly do not,
and there is no visibility re time scale when things will change.
From an investors perspective it really is difficult to swim in these cross currents,not withstanding the obvious fact that making money is secondary to the well being of our families and our fellow brothers and sisters.

Steve E60,
The S/P 500 touched the 100mth EMA this evening and bounced 120pts like it had touched a high voltage fence.
Kudlow is now talking about the Gov taking direct positions in companies.
Isnt capitalism such a beautiful thing !!!! Even that commie Bernie Sanders wouldnt have dared mention what Kudlow is suggesting.If the 100 mth doesnt hold,then watch out below,a 50% haicut is circa 1695 ouch.
Hope you and Mrs E60 stay save,at our age we are dispensable if things turn nasty !!

Johnmcclean,
Birg are also exposed to Italian bonds and the market is concerned.Look at Barclays shares which also has a large exposure.
From what I can gather Birg has >200m exposure,not huge,but just another negative.
That said,money will be made here,as a trade not a buy and hold.

Depending on the outcome of the court case it will either double or half,if you are going to trade it,size accordingly.
I am agnostic re the underlying business as competition with generics has increased.
I am more comfortable with the larger caps and only trade smaller caps infrequently to quell the gambler within !

I bought some, but too early to load up.
I think the S/P 500 has to let out more steam and we follow lower, in particular US tech will have to capitulate before the bottom is in.The 100mth EMA @2283 is the last technical support that I watch.
Where the bottom is and if this is a v,u shaped recovery or we stay down in a protracted bear are the unknowables.
The v shaped recovery off the 2009 low was an anomaly but with QE it may well be repeated.
Its a fast moving and changing backdrop not easily navigated and as usual I am just guessing out loud as it were.

Good man Steve E60,
Way beyond my comfort zone,best of luck.