Member Info for Icarus42

Hope you are keeping well Steve E60,
It was worth a gamble @8p but post Covid 19 the odds against it surviving are slimmer than when I bought last Sept.
I never add to a losing speculative position,I only add as part of phased buying into a solid company,petra is not one that easily fits into that category.I have been mainly trading the large caps,as long as the Fed keeps pumping all will be well and main street is just a side issue to be ignored by capital markets.I do think a pull back in the S/P 500 will happen before the US election.I plan to place a decent bet on that in due course looking for a 500pt pull back close to the ATH preferably, with a stop 500pt above.A 50/50 risk with a 70% probability,I like those kind of trades E60 much better than Petra !!
The Dom still survives,can someone not deliver Boris from this turbulent priest ?!!
Best of luck to all punting here,it will be needed.

US ripe for profit taking, 3200 bull target, bears to take control to 2600-2700 most likely after next week NFPR FRI 5th.
Bull move on UK and eurozone banks should take BIRG over the 2 mark with institutional buying end/start of month.
BIRG great for trading but not for buy and hold.
Declared shorts are relatively small but can still do great damage to the s/p with well structured algo trades.
Best of luck to all trading here.

ranger 4,
Dont be going on with that auld commie talk ! All is for the best in the best of possible worlds !!!

The ECB buys company bonds at interest rates of less than 1%,tracker mortgages are less than 1%.
Paying 7.5% is junk bond status given NIRP.
BIRG is making a big mistake here,they should have played hard ball for a while and then gone with the begging bowl to the ECB unless of course the ECB refused !!! its a big big negative for me.I have half a stake built here @155 average.I will sit on my hand for a while until things are clearer.

My base line assumption was that the ECB would follow the Fed and pump money into the system.
The fact that BIRG had to pay 7.5% for its bond i.s quiet shocking.
I have zero confidence in Lagarde ,she has no understanding how dire things could get,that is where the real risk lies.

practically

Thats 46.875m to the bondholders per annum with the capital particularly 100% guaranteed by the ECB.
To me appears more like an act of desperation than confidence.When did BIRG generate free capital return of 7.5% consistently ????
Maybe they are going to pay back the Govs 14 % at todays S/P thats only 232 m !!!! somehow I doubt it.

Mooted tie up between Wells Fargo and Goldmans seems to be behind the surge in global banking stocks circa 3pm today.

Selling pressure stateside has eased in the last 3 sessions with a significant intraday reversal today.Hard to say if it is accumulation or just some short covering.

Stating the obvious but the bears have total control here and breaking 1 seems inevitable.
In my view the following need to happen for a floor to be hit.
1 Direct funding from the ECB via capital transfers to the soverigns NOT Loans.This seems unlikely for now given the intransigence of the Germans in particular.
2 The Irish Gov needs to guarantee a 100% of new lending into the Irish economy NOT 80%
3 Their needs to be more urgency in re opening the economy with weekly reviews,the current raod map is too opaque and pedantic.
4 A treatment to lower the mortality rate to the same as the flu,a vaccine is likely a year away if at all.It is possible that a vaccine may not be achievable,after all there is no vaccine for many viral infections eg cold sores.
I see further weakness in price here as an opportunity.The Irish economy is basically sound and will bounce back if the correct decisions are made.One could equally make an apocalyptic bear case cov19 mutations plus Euro zone break up !!.
I see further Gov stake increase as unlikely and a takeover as close to zero.
Just my morning musings and best of luck to all trading or intending to trade BIRG.

Will buy Sub £1 and S/P 500 below 2600 for a trading position.
Anybody else looking for a decent trade set up here ?
Best of luck to all trading BIRG,bears have the nod for now.

Monday 11th May 7am

The ECB seem to be willing to buy Junk bonds and to allow banks, that carry these lower quality bonds. use them as collateral.
This significantly strengthens Euro zone bank balance sheets.
Merckel is now hinting at joint debt sharing saying it would require difficult treaty changes but not ruling it out.
The key date is next Thurs April 30th, all ears for a crucial ECB meeting.
When push comes to shove everything is possible.I anticipate a possible re rate if that meeting is positive.

An apology To JMcC,my post should have read ex 4.

I dont see options 1-5 as likely.
Its open season on all European banks and BIRG being seen as a vulnerable peripheral bank is being sold down by some institutions to shore up their own balance sheets, it is under attack on the short side from hedge funds add in divi funds who are mandated to sell then the path of least resistance is down for now.
I will buy more on a break below 1 which looks likely given the recent price action as I am building a position.
My understanding is there is a quid pro quo with the ECB,banks cancel their divis and the ECB will provide the financial cover as required,there is zero chance of them allowing a banking crisis on top of the current mess.I am no great fan of the ECB but I dont think that even that institution could be so incompetent.Why not securitise the risky stuff and let the ECB buy it !! they have been buying crap bonds for a while now,another tranche may add diversity to their growing bond portfolio,I gest ,I think !!!!
Best of luck to all trading in the current environment

With regards to LSE I dont usualyl stray outside FTSE 100/250.
Occasionally I will have a real gamble, hence PDL.
When a share is riding high it appears invincible,but when its on the floor it never seems to get a break,cest le vie !
Best of luck Steve E60

Gilead issued a less bullish note an hour ago advising caution re interpretation of the data.
It was a small sample size but none the less it is hopeful,the markets are up on that news and the US opening sooner and more comprehensively,according to Trump.Hopefully the shorts will cover here as has been said,bear markets end not on buying but on the absence of sellers.

Just In,
Gilead has now issued a word of caution re their treatment !!
There is a lot noise around and difficult to know whats true or not.
Good trading all.

Gilead appears to have an anti viral treatment for covid-19.
If true, it is a game changer as it significantly lowers the mortality rate and thus removes some fear.
It remains to be seen if it is hype or not,markets are flying none the less so we will have to see.
Pdl a bit slow to join the party but may partake in due course

Hotdog 1,
I agree with your analysis but in my view it is contingent on the following,
1. The lockdowns continue and no return to some semblance of normal business.
2.There is no treatment found that lowers mortality to the level of the flu.
3. No agreement re Eurobonds
4.No agreement to permit the ECB to underwrite loans issued by banks to allow SMEs to trade out of CV19 crisis.
5.No agreement to launch a Marshall type stimulus package when/if we exit this crisis.
I am not as bearish as you and am a buyer at these levels and will buy more if we break 1.That said,when I reach my full allocation,BIRG will amount to circa 5%of my risk capital so my degree of bullishness is relative.I also have no BIRG above 2.
Best of luck and I hope your predictions do not come to pass !!