Member Info for hxulcolrdoh

I believe that the bond proposal submitted to parliament / which is in progress relates to general spending.

The power sector woes (largely caused by the FGN not meeting subsidy obligations) will continue unless a separate ring fenced power sector bond materialises.

The non payment issues of 2024 appear to have continued into 2025 and at this point would require a ₦5.6T/$3.8bn (and counting) bond.

https://www.icirnigeria.org/power-sector-liquidity-crisis-worsens-as-gencos-debt-rises-to-n5-6-trillion/?tztc=1

Re "... with production net to BP of c.25,500 boepd.." in H1 2025

Will be excellent addition if they secure it.

I see that this week it has been proposed to the Nigerian parliament that a $2.3bn eurobond (first discussed in July) should be issued. In all probability it will be approved in the next week or so.

The bigger Nigeria economy picture is that in what it calls a “Budget of Restoration: Securing Peace and Rebuilding Prosperity” the FGN proposed spending ₦47.90T in 2025. This is up from a ₦21.60T spend in 2024 (receipts of ₦14.55T). Ambitious. What could possibly go wrong.

In the energy sector DisCo's' are making a mess of rolling out and collecting on customer facing services. At the back end infrastructure is in a chronically under funded state and only delivering 37.5% of it's nameplate potential. Of specific interest to SAVE, in 2024 NBET the entity that is supposed to pay GenCo's/energy suppliers was underfunded by 55.7%. The vast majority of the under funding was the result of the FGN not meeting it's commitment to subsidise energy costs. Depending on how the FGN has behaved in 2025 (paid all it's outstanding debts and kept payments up to date -> carried on as it did in 2024) at this point NBET could be anywhere between 0 and ₦2.9T/$2bn short.

So back to the $2.3bn eurobond.

$1.12 billion is spoken for will be used to refinance a Eurobond maturing in November.

Of the remainder with so many hands out what share will land in the energy sector's plate? Of that where in the spectrum of outcomes from being made 100% whole to being kept on life support does SAVE's result land?

Apologies Zengas for providing some relevant context absent from your own commentary.

Oct 10 and the expected results are delayed again and we have a board room reshuffle which I'd have thought reflects a shift in power or direction.

While waiting I did look into the 2024 Nigerian electricity market as a component of SAVE's African adventure.

Total Generation was 37,093.70GWh (11,469.85GWh Hydro).

29,126.27GWh was delivered to DistCo's (not sure where the other 22% went, some will be transmission losses, the rest? exports? a bitcoin mining sideline?)

Generally energy suppliers like Accugas deliver to GenCo's who generate power which is then sold by consumer facing DistCo's. Floating above both is NBET (Nigerian Bulk Electricity Trading plc). The FGN (Federal Government of Nigeria) tells DistCo's that electricity is to capped at 7 cents/kWh (a fraction of what other West African countries pay). DistCo's are then required to pass back a cut of the 7 cents to NBET to fund back end power generation/transmission infrastructure. A GenCo might then say but it costs us 16 cents/kWh to run our operation. At which point the FGN might tell them no it doesn't it costs 12 cents/kWh and we will subsidise the shortfall between what the DistCo's pass back and what we determine the CRT (cost reflective tariff) to be. NBET is then supposed to collect customer remittances from the DistCo's, subsidies from the FGN and square up the GenCo's (who in turn might square up the energy suppliers).

In YE 2024 NBET was supposed to receive ₦ 3,102.17b (₦ 1,160.39b from DistCo's and ₦ 1,941.78b from FGN subsidies)

It actually received 44.3% of this with payment failures of ₦ 154.88b from DistCo's and ₦ 1,580.44b from the FGN.

I had thought that DistCo's were the source of GenCo's funding problems as they only collect 62% (they bill 82% and collect from 75%) of what they are tasked to deliver. However they are actually (all things are relative) very good w.r.t their obligations to the GenCo's via NBET. By an order of magnitude in this area the FGN is the biggest problem.

Meanwhile back in GenCo land installed generating capacity in theory can deliver 13,625MW. In practice it delivers on average 4,853MW (37.5%). There is a "gross inadequacy of available generation due to a lack of investments in new generation plants and poor maintenance of installed plants" (though I think Accugas is dealing with some of the more modern plant). If GenCos's were given funds tomorrow there is no guarantee that it would be passed on to energy suppliers.

If the pattern of 2024 continued into 2025 then I'd have thought that any financial sanity check run against SAVE would read like a horror story. Alternatively behind the scenes there have been transformational positive changes and now all is or soon will be rainbows and unicorns in the Nigerian grid sector.

If I offer on opinion on this or any other board please treat it with scepticism.

Make every effort to find counter argument, oversight, fault. If something is stated ask yourself what is not stated.

If there exists either in their own mind or in a collective view a board genius / sacred cow - ditto.

The acid test of any opinion/counsel that you might be swayed by is the effect that is has on your wealth.

As I'm in favour of balance I would have said the courts royalty decision in Tharisa's favour was a positive in that it is an elimination of a potential negative.

At the point at which the provisional liability is removed from the balance sheet it strengthens the balance sheet. On paper it will boost revenue and profits. Cash wise it would have no effect.

The development could usefully be used to illustrate the adage "Revenue is vanity, profit is an opinion, cash is king".

I watched the presentation on the proposed underground mining expansion.

From an engineering perspective I'm impressed by the technicals and the ambition of the project. Generally I am impressed with how Tharisa is run operationally (below board level).

From a financial perspective ANOTHER major project on top of Karo? (to be fair this is probably the development they should have been concentrating on)

What could possibly go wrong ? (oops now that I think about it so far $180m+ of shareholder funds have been sunk into Karo without much to show for it - even though it was originally scheduled to have first ore in mine by July 2024 )

Shareholders hearts must sink every time Phoevos announces that he is "excited to be starting on a new journey".

Given the funds that this project and Karo are going to mop up over the next few years I can't see Tharisa 's unremarkable dividend yield changing any time soon (regardless of any gyrations in commodity prices). So IMO THS is over priced. That said the shares are so thinly traded that it doesn't take much share buy back activity to maintain a fig leaf of respectability. Nonetheless I'm sure that the CFO has found a better home for the proceeds of his June divestment.

Maybe over time it will become more attractive (If Phoevos can resist diverting most income into ever bigger holes).

Hi extrader clarification of where 832,379,966 comes from

ZIOC started the year with a share capital of 675,793,471

Additions

+ 337,790,707 ( March 3 "First Tranche Subscription Shares")

+ 108,139,536 ( March 3 "Second Tranche Subscription Shares", Greymont revised March 26)

+ 1,500,000 ( Sir Mick )

Subtractions

-290,843,718 (Glencore shares cancelled)

New share capital 832,379,966

So over the year a) there has been a 23.17% dilution and b) Glencore are gone.

Interesting (a bit anyway) that Greymont who commited to investing $10.85m for a %26.2 share (the original 79,069,768 second tranche) with the option to put in $12.35m for 28.8% ultimately opted for $12.05m and 28.11%.

As at 28 June 2025, the percentage of ordinary shares that were not in public hands was 49.38%

See page 32 of annual report - https://wp-zanagairon-2025.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2025/07/ZIOC-2024-Annual-Report-vFINAL.pdf

Everything Zengas states is factual.

However at the point which a very curated and selective set of facts that ignore the execution risks, in country challenges, the company's financial health etc are presented IMO the Zengas's of this world are a hazard to the average investor.

I KNOW that nobody should be investing in anything unless they have done their own warts an all research / risk assessment.

In practice I feel that your average visitor to a board/any board often see posts from a poster X who has clearly done a lot of research, who is better informed than them and they deduce from X's positive un nuanced posts "if it is good enough for X it is good enough for me".

Just an opinion. DYOR.

Clifford's other potential pension pot GEMD appears to be a dead duck.

If he is to get a golden pension parachute it going to have to be ZIOC. So I'd have thought ZIOC was getting his full attention.

For any gluttons for punishment a link to his unchallenged unhinged speech (starts with an homage to father - "one of the best known academic Marxists of his generation" )

https://youtu.be/DHbxgnQdsO4?t=851

If they produce figures on Oct 10 I'd guess there would be an attempt to spin headlines about record 'cash collections' and record 'Total Income' (a metric SAVE seem to made up).

Ignoring this flannel of more interest would be an update on receivables which in recent times has been going backwards - 2022: $239.3m, 2023: $370.8m, 2024: $??, Half year 2025 ??

Re 'net debt' IMO this figure is manipulable and could vary drastically over a short period of time. Of more interest would be borrowings which I'd guess are north of $670m and interest on those borrowings which I'd guess would be something like the thick end of $100m.

So I'd guess that pinned by borrowings that are probably in the region of 2.5 times revenue and interest that is probably consuming 40% of that revenue (if they were paid) SAVE isn't in a good position to make much progress in the near future. Potentially over time Stubb Creek proceeds could be used to claw their way back to sanity. In practice A('Walter Mitty')K will probably roll over any SC winnings into bigger bets.

Of more immediate concern is that there is a significant amount of borrowings that need to be repaid or refinanced before the end of the year. Either the 'expected' Accugas loan expansion/refinance needs to come through and/or (probably AND) the 'expected' resolution to the receivable issue is delivered .

Doubtless whatever is reported Malchy will gush.

'expects'

The Company 'expects' to announce ...

Surprise surprise shareholders hoping to see YE 2024 audited accounts this month have been let down again (reminder Seplat produced theirs almost eight months ago on March 4th).

Komakino - I'm sure you are good for the fiver but you can keep it. The way things are shaping up at SAVE you might need it.

Why announce a "six month lock-in until 26th February 2026" today if the clock must have started on August 26th ?

At the point at which someone can force you to put an 'App' on your phone they potentially have 'keys to the kingdom' access to anything the phone has access to.

It would be the ultimate Trojan horse!

While GEMD is a company that I wouldn't touch with a barge pole they have historically been good at sharing pictures of new finds.

If they existed there would be pictures here : https://www.gemdiamonds.com/photo-gallery.php (the 'diamonds' tab)

Steve seems to have a strategy of identifying micro cap stocks with little or no trades and ramping them with brain dead one liners/emojis in the hope that he can manipulate sentiment.

I'll infer from that it went well - neutral maybe even positive.

Elsewhere Donald America has been lecturing the UN.

"Europe is in serious trouble. They have been invaded by a force of illegal aliens like nobody has ever seen before… Both the immigration and suicidal energy ideas will be the death of Western Europe," he said.

Climate change, he claimed to audible gasps, was "the greatest con job ever perpetrated on the world" and was lumbering European countries with expensive energy costs compared to fossil fuels. He criticised in particular the UK government for imposing new taxes on North Sea oil.

"If you don't get away from the green energy scam, your country is going to fail," he said.

"I love Europe. I love the people of Europe. And I hate to see it being devastated by energy and immigration. This double-tailed monster destroys everything in its wake… you want to be politically correct and you are destroying your heritage."

Just because Donald America often says idiotic things doesn't mean that everything he says is idiotic. Europe does need to wake up an smell the coffee.