Member Info for hxulcolrdoh

No sleight was intended on workforce.

The point was more that in a situation where there is significant change there is ample scope for lost in translation, problem ownership, logistic issues etc.

Watched the investor meet presentation.

As usual the CEO + CFO come across as an excellent management team that will over time add significant shareholder value.

I do hope that the boots on the grounds / workforce / infrastructure are of a similar calibre. I did feel that on the last question of the Q&A the CEO was a bit hesitant/non committal w.r.t Triton.

I am not saying that some bonds are not issued but I do hold the opinion that the resultant liquidity will only be at a level sufficient to keep the lights on.

Further if I was a Genco in partial receipt of a 7 year Niara based bond I'd flog it at the earliest opportunity. I don't think we have seen the end of Niara devaluations.

I looked up what we know about 2025.

In H1 the FGN clocked up another ₦1,050 billion of subsidy obligations.

Has the administration which paid almost none of it's 2024 ₦2 trillion subsidy obligations, which announced that it would launch a ₦4T eurobond to pay off legacy debts and then didn't, which has tried pressuring Gencos into taking a 50% haircut suddenly got religion and started paying? I think not or it wouldn't have asked NBET to borrow more funds indirectly in it's name. So it is probably reasonable to assume that by the end of December the FGN will be another ₦2T (₦6T total) in the hole. IoUs are piling up on IoUs, at best being partially paid off with bigger IoUs.

W.r.t to paying subsidy obligations the FGN is in crisis management mode, not new dawn/rainbows and unicorns mode. If there is a glimmer of light at the end of a tunnel it is a far distant oncoming train.

The legacy debt/receivables story has a very long and painful way to run yet at SAVE imo. Meanwhile SAVE have to be crippled by borrowings and the interest payments on these borrowings, $678m at the interim's (BTW I hold to the opinion that 'net debt' is a useless and invalid concept/metric at SAVE).

Finger crossed for a Santa Claus rally at SQZ.

Re "makes you think this is a proper and serious initiative"

I disagree. This looks like a paying off a credit card with a credit card solution.

The biggest issue is that the FGN having decided to subsidise electricity prices has not subsidised them.

In 2024 the FGN paid almost NONE (₦371.34 million of ₦1,941.78 billion ie 0.019% settlement) of it's subsidy obligation.

What has happened in 2025 ? We don't know. Probably the same. Reports that earlier in the year were lamenting a ₦4 Trillion backlog have more recently been suggesting a ₦5-6 Trillion backlog.

Is the FGN putting any money into the the system/paying off any principal? NO. It is allowing NBET to run up a separate credit card bill. Does anybody have a plan for how all the principle/debt gets paid off. Probably not. That will be a bigger problem for another day, just not today.

I'd suggest that the authorities have started as they mean to continue - making their minimum payments with new borrowings and no repayment of principal for as long as they can. I don't see this translating into any relief for SAVE any time soon but hopefully it will keep them on life support.

If there was such gross malfeasance on such an allegedly industrial scale over almost multiple decades and the FCA as the industry regulator simply stood about with two arms the one length then surely they are as responsible/culpable as any other actor?

Can someone sue them ?

And Premier Miton decreased 77,394,376 to ??? / dropped off the radar

Fair dinkum Komakino.

I offer a face saving double or quits - surely I will lose ?

I'll bet that SAVE doesn't appoint an auditor to look at their 2025 accounts before SEPL publish their Full Year 2025 Financial Results ?

Komakino are you conceding that you are another £5 down ?

Good article. I liked the comment

"The Government is leading by ideology without debate or logic."

A short US piece but the more general point is that policy makers who are too doctrinaire are likely to fall foul of various unintended consequences / gotcha's

https://youtu.be/IpEEDnV1gXw?t=50

Maybe he has been taking lessons on how to 'game' expectations from Rachael Reeves ?

A solid and comprehensive update that they seem to have put more effort into.

IMO the downside is limited. However for an upside to materialise various things need to happen including

- they need to improve their LTV ratio

- property devaluations need to come to an end.

- progress on vacancy rates. The UK's @ 20% is poor. Not many years ago the target was 5%

I can envisage that these will come to pass.

I don't know why there is surprise at annual dividends of 3c/$8.8m when another 12.4c/$36.5m has gone into Adonis's project during the year.

Add it to the list of straws that SAVEers like to grasp for.

The project has the WIN-WIN /makes sense/should be done signature of a project that in an African context usually results in considerable wealth destruction.

Facilities have been moth balled for over a decade because of legal/ownership disputes which don't appear to be close to a resolution.

If facilities do come back on line, then they could be (as they are in the right area) but there is no guarantee that Savannah would be involved. I believe the NGC/NNPC originally supplied the plant.

Spoiler alert.

It is not managed and is not going to be prosperous.

A word salad from the minister for Net Zero the Rt Hon Ed Miliband MP

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/north-sea-future-plan-for-fair-managed-and-prosperous-transition

The North Sea can't die off quick enough as far as he is concerned.

In that case I should have asked who doesn't regulate CMCs.

If there is one sector crying out for more regulation it is the CMC sector.

Out of curiosity given that there are regulatory bodies for this, that and most things under the sun ...

Does anybody regulate/license CMCs ?