Member Info for hxulcolrdoh

Just a guess but I'd have suggested 10/1 against.

Nothing significant has changed.

President Tinubu’s imaginary (IMO) ₦4 Trillion Genco bailout bond advertised as weeks away back at the end of July and which might release the log jam of overdue receivables hasn't happened.

The 'expected' expansion of the Accugas debt facility from NGN340 billion -> NGN772 billion which might otherwise be required to keep the show on the road has not been confirmed.

And hoping no budgies were harmed in the peregrinations

Do we have an opinion on whether the capital restructure announced today is positive/negative/neutral ?

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/VANQ/tender-offer-uek9rlz13vktepp.html

Re "Save produce 24% of electricty in Nigeria so would suspect the govt. would prefer them not to go bust!"

SAVE should be a gold mine if they were paid what they were due and on time - but they are not.

They are however probably paid enough to keep them ticking over but for the fact that AK's eyes are bigger than his belly and he has over extended the company. Should this end badly I'd guess no one in Nigeria would lose any sleep over it. Force Majeure would be declared, NNPC would step in and it would be business as usual.

Komakino re "Lol hx, if you're finding it all a bit hard to grasp then maybe we could draw you a picture."

My first thought on expanding into electricity projects in Rwanda,Uganda and Malawi would be be - have we not learned that only a fraction of electricity delivered in Africa is paid for.

This is why SAVE is in the recievables mess that it is. Gencos collect on about 35% of what they supply. They then can't pay gas suppliers such as SAVE. The president waving his arm about suggests that a bond will be issued for the specific purpose of bailing out the Gencos. I'm sceptical that this will happen or happen on the scale that board members hope for. Crisis or no crisis it makes no sense to pour water into a bucket that has no bottom.

If a bail out doesn't happen and happen soon probably SAVE will be in trouble given the loans they are scheduled to repay by the end of the year. The predicament of SAVE I'd have thought would have little or no bearing on the deliberations of the Nigerian government.

Let muddy the muddy waters. They are not muddy enough.

The link referred to

Serica Energy: Catching up with the CEO (17 September 2025)

https://peelhuntoilandgas.gallery.video/250917

"The crisis persists despite President Bola Tinubu’s July 25 meeting with GenCos"

“Almost two months after that meeting, there has been no follow-up engagement with the GenCos on how these debts will be settled”

REMINDER : the speculation when the mooted bond solution surfaced was that a resolution to the crisis was 3-4 weeks away.

Smokey99 - posting reality checks on the SAVE board is distinctly bad form.

Deluded optimism is much preferred. You should be ashamed. You have let yourself down, you have let the board down, you have let SAVE down.

Last post : "correctly" should say "correctly priced"

Current management has been doing the same thing year after year and year after year CLI has been falling further and further behind it's peers.

As the largest shareholder if I was the Morstedt family I'd be ALL EARS if someone had better ideas on how to deliver shareholder value.

LTI as stated "This may be impractical but I'm playing devil's advocate" ..

I'm pointing out that if it was held that CLI was correctly at present (which I don't believe it is) then the option presented would be an extreme challenge to this assertion.

Now that the company is a micro cap (in it's heyday it had a market cap of almost £200m) and potentially easy to manipulate expect some clowns to suggest it might be worth investing it. It is not.

The company is on it's deathbed.

I agree that with 55% ownership (£120m) the Morstedt control the company and can't be forced to do anything.

However year after year the company has been lapped by it's peers, the arrears have been accumulating and at this point CLI are several laps behind. The net worth of the family has fallen significantly as has their income in the form of dividends. Things are only partially explained by covid related trends.

If I was the Morstedt family I'd borrow £100m, buy the 45% that they don't own, flog the lot at the NTA value of 209p ps ie £460m, repay the £100m, trouser the remaining £360m and pat myself on the back for having trebled the family fortunes.

This may be impractical but I'm playing devil's advocate. Between this extreme and the option 'Keep doing the same thing' from a family point of view there are almost certainly better alternatives. Who knows maybe the family don't care about their net worth or falling income.

Funerals should comply with net zero, says Labour - New rules could ban gas cremation ovens and introduce eco-friendly coffins

https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/funerals-comply-net-zero-says-143801036.html

I was looking at the 'modus operandi' of Peter Gyllenhammar AB after they got involved with PCA in 2020.

Whether or not the shift can be attributed to Peter Gyllenhammar AB, PCA switched from mindlessly holding properties long-term to maximizing cash returns to shareholders through aggressive asset disposals. The company sold £145.6 million worth of investment properties enabling the repayment of all debt and achieving a net cash position of £30.3 million by mid-2025.

Over £43 million has been returned to shareholders since July 2022 via dividends and buyback mechanisms.

It will be interesting to see if they can shake up CLI

Have I bought ?

I'd penciled in a review at the interims but was underwhelmed by the results the impression that managements 'get up an go' had got up and left.

Following the subsequent fall and the appearance of an activist investor I think (famous last words) that the downside is very limited - CLI is already at a massive 70%+ discount to their 209p Net Tangible Assets (though with a high 50% LTV ratio) and the activist investor might rattle the CLI cage / agitate for positive change.

So yes - I've decided to take the plunge and invest.

Keep doing the same thing and surprise surprise you get the same results.

Accepting that post covid has been difficult for the real estate sector generally it remains the case that year after year relative to it's peers CLI has performed particularly poorly.

Further I have the impression that the CEO is concerningly comfortable with the status quo. So I'm happy to see an activist investor take an interest.

Mmm..

down 18% since interims.

The worst performing UK REIT (of reasonable size) since the start of the year down 30%

In fact the worst performing UK REIT (of reasonable size) since the start of any year of the last 5 years

I had decided to pass at the interims but it is actually becoming intriguing. Is the that bad ? or badly misunderstood ?

If everything else remained the same -

A doubling of Palladium prices would only lift Tharisa's basket price by about 9%.

For Karo (which still on the drawing board, not likely to go into production any time soon, and which IMO will not propagate benefits back to Tharisa shareholders at the level likely to be enjoyed by other KMH interests) it would have much more significant impact raising the basket price by 24%.

Someone with the engineering, management and financial wherewithal to get the damn thing fixed should be quartered on that FPSO until such times as it has been demonstrated to be reliable!