Member Info for hxulcolrdoh

23rd

GLG continue to sneak out the door before it is too late.

Down to 0.5% as of Aug 29th.

As Visitor suggests feed a mix of views into your decision process.

Re "I take it some regard Karo as folly"

IMO the scale and risks of the Karo project for a company the size of Tharisa was in any circumstance madness. However there may have been method to the madness.

The eventual cost from the point of view of Tharisa shareholders is expected to be in the order $232m between the initial $31.5m/66.3% 'Farm In' (13/06/18 + 31/03/22) and subsequent capital raises for an in interest in (according to Visitor's link) 150 Koz PGMs p.a.

'Related Parties' will have an interest in a separate 25% of this amount ie 37.5 Koz PGMs p.a. having paid $0 in capital raises and been in RECEIPT of the $31.5m 'Farm In' funds.

Does this sounds 'tickety boo' to you / is this the sort of management you want to invest in?

Never mind I hear you say if and when KMH is operational and a PGM supercycle heaves over the horizon KMH will be generating loads of dividends and it will all have been worth it!

But will it given KMH has been hived off into a separate entity?

I don't doubt that if KMH declared generous dividends they would be trousered in full by 'related parties' but what of those repatriated to Tharisa ? Would they be passed on directly to Tharisa shareholders ? God knows they ought to be. However barring an undertaking from management I very much doubt that they would be. Rather I'd suspect that there would be a two tier benefit system w.r.t KMH (back to the method in the madness) where some benefited more immediately and directly from any success.

The above is what shapes my opinion

"DYOR but personally I wouldn't value THS on anything other than it's dividend yield. On that basis it would currently be over valued and I don't see the yield changing much any time soon."

I looked up Centrica profits for the last 5 years. The total was £5.7bn. Did the same for Tesco - £10.9Bn

These are big numbers which prompt idiots to say allege 'fat cat profiteering' lets impose a windfall.

In Centrica's case profit was 5.9% of a £97.1bn turnover. In Tesco's case profit was 3.4% of £322.6bn of turnover.

The Centricas and Tescos of this world are not the problem. It is governments who can't live within their budgets and resort to a vicious cycle of debt followed by money printing to cover the debt. Print twice as much money and it is only worth half of what it was. It might not happen immediately but with absolute certainty it will over time.

Hi BlueShadow - I too thought THS 'looks unbelievably good on paper'. Unfortunately when I look into it all is not what it seems.

Operationally I would have said that Tharisa is a well run company. The problems appear to be at board level and a March 2022 decision taken that Tharisa would 100% fund and finance a new PGM mine (Karo) for a 68% interest in the eventual output. For comparison this would add something like 136k PGM ounces p.a. to an existing 145k PGM ounces p.a.

On the funding side something like ~$232m or 78 cents ps of Tharisa shareholder funds will eventually be siphoned off for the Karo project. For comparison Tharisa has distributed 18 cents in dividends since March 2022. So while the company is generating lots of cash only a fraction of it is ending up in shareholder pockets. A much larger sum is being bulldozed into Karo. A few months back the CFO sold a decent wedge. Maybe he needed the money. Maybe he didn't think he'd get much of a return where it was in the foreseeable.

On the finance side something like $250m of debt still needs to be arranged to complete the Karo mine. This has been on the TODO list for quite some time but doesn't seem to have made much progress. The project timescale (First Ore in Mine July 2024) and costs ( $391m to FOIM ) are in tatters. At this point the FOIM for Karo is unknown and it looks improbable that Karo will repay the funds and finance poured into it with a ROI (but who knows maybe a sustained PGM supercycle will deliver the project a 'get out of jail free' card ).

So Tharisa's pariah status seem to go back to the March 2022 Karo investment decision. At best it was a predictably irresponsible and dangerous gamble. Some suspect that the investment decision was at least in part corrupted by a desire to advantage 'related parties'. The costs to Tharisa shareholders (~$232m expected) if not downright hidden have been heavily obfuscated. It remains the case that as the company is largely controlled by one family so a possibility always exists that future family politics/agendas will play out to the detriment of other shareholders.

The company seems to be in a 'when trust is broken mistrust blossoms' situation.

DYOR but personally I wouldn't value THS on anything other than it's dividend yield. On that basis it would currently be over valued and I don't see the yield changing much any time soon.

Rachel seems to think she can tax her way to prosperity.

Meanwhile her colleague Ed NetZeroBrain is happy to put the kibosh on projects that would bring in money so that he can fudge his net zero stats even if it means the imports are more expensive and more carbon expensive (but fall on someone else's ledger entry).

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Britains-Biggest-Untapped-Oilfield-Put-on-Hold-as-Climate-Rules-Bite.html

Is the bank clerk planning a smash & grab ?

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1077505/lloyds-and-natwest-shares-fall-as-thatcher-style-bank-windfall-tax-proposed-1077505.html

I'm taking comfort from the fact that the CFO has splashed out £173k of his own wonga in the last year or so at an average price of 161p.

Things on the ground / looking forward seem to have improved since then.

I'm guessing

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5PgAKzmWmuk

Assign your parties to the characters as you see fit.

Hi Komakino I understand that the government needs to get it's act together.

However at the company level with refinanced/extended debt they should be able to fund operations until then. Without it they could be in big trouble very quickly.

So the answer my question "has the debt been refinanced ?" was - NO.

Previously

"Final documentation has been 'agreed' with the lenders in respect of an increase in the Transitional Facility from NGN340 billion to up to NGN773 billion. It is 'currently expected' that this will be completed in H2 2025" (my quotes)

Updated to currently

"Agreements 'expected' to be signed shortly with a consortium of five Nigerian banks"

Further I'd guess we can kiss goodbye to

"The audited annual accounts will be released no later than during August 2025."

Looks like same old same old for SAVE and AK.

What I don't understand is that back in June the company announced

"Final documentation has been 'agreed' with the lenders in respect of an increase in the Transitional Facility from NGN340 billion to up to NGN773 billion. It is 'currently expected' that this will be completed in H2 2025" (my quotes)

If something should have been done yesterday then never expect SAVE to confirm that it was done yesterday. Rather expect an announcement saying that it has been 'agreed' or 'expected' that it will be done.

Was it done?

If it was then I'd have thought BDO (who are 'expected' to be replaced by big 4 auditor) would no longer be stressing about 'going concern' issues. Financially SAVE may still be a basket case but they could continue to fund the business with yet more debt until eventually in the fullness of time when the moment is ripe the Nigerian government push some money into the (broken) system.

If it wasn't then there is a scary amount of debt to be repaid by the end of year

$20.0m Accugas Holdings UK Plc 14 Nov 2025 Senior Secured note

$14.7m Accugas Holdings UK Plc 31 Dec 2025 promissory note

$213.1m Accugas Limited (Mar 2025) 31 Dec 2025

$170m (???) Savannah Energy Finance Limited Term loan expected to run to 30 June 2027 but could be called in on 29 Dec 2025.

Ed's got Religion.

Religion trumps logic.

A rather good investor presentation from the CFO Martin Copeland from earlier in the year

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KzeTz62Pqp0

Moreover to be fair to him he has been putting his money where his mouth is / filling his boots. Since March 2024 he has accumulated 107.5K shares. His last transaction of 45K shares for £72,630 in July was coincidentally at his average buy price of 161p

Gesture politics unless and until a successful ₦4 trillion bond programme is in the bag.

You have never seen "Catch me if you can" ?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frank_Abagnale

I see a director buy.

I'd think it is a safe enough buy as I do think the current SP does not reflect the companies potential value.

However until they address their negatives (particularly LTV ratio) I don't think they will see this value realised.

Further I think the CEO Fredrik seems too 'comfortable'. I'm not sure much will change until he does (or a rising tide lifts everything).

A better article.

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/tinubus-4-trillion-power-generation-fix-solution-stopgap-okonkwo-pwywf

According to the article less than half ( 6 out of 13 million ) registered customers are metered. Between not billing users who are not registered and not being paid those that are (something like 16.5%) the distribution companies can't pay for the energy that they consume. Sounds like a very broken system.

There is anticipatory approval of a ₦4 trillion bond programme to fix? (paper over) current problems.

Allegedly ₦1.8 trillion of the ₦4 trillion claimed by GENCOs from 2015 to 2023 has been 'validated' It is unclear what this means (eg does it mean that they have looked at 45% and passed 100% of them / looked at 100% and passed 45% / something in between). It is unclear who would be prioritised for payment eg oldest first ?

Everything is predicated on getting a bond issue off the ground. Not sure who would buy the bond or how repayments would be funded. Obviously we are back to square one on day one ie electricity/energy is disappearing into a black hole without being paid for.

Doesn't look like much is likely to happen any time soon. A vague arm waving appeal for 'more time' with no hint of a timetable.

Hopefully from the administrations point of view the can can be kicked down the road long enough to land in the next administrations lap.

Wearing his audit cap of verifiability and authenticity the President appealed “To our friends in the banking sector, I ask that we avoid foreclosures. Sharpen your pencils, but keep an eraser handy. Let’s persevere together.”

The Car Dealing industry doesn't seem to be very pleased with the Financial Chaos Authority. Is anyone ?

Aside. Now that I think about it, I can't answer the question - did the SC address the concept of being 'half guilty'. Sounds like something that they should have cleared up.

Another set of results another set of property devaluations.

Vacancy rate increased 12.7% -> 15.1%.

They are failing to effectively deal with the LTV ratio which has the market uneasy.

Their largest market is now Germany where the German economy having swallowed the Net Zero poison pill (amongst other things) is weak.

Meanwhile having cut the dividend to £5.25m, £6m will be spent by the company on Net Zero initiatives this year.

I was hoping see green shoots - but they have not appeared yet.