Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
So far MLM has managed to knock £120m off the market cap on his last day in the office.
We will see what he says @ 9:30
https://broadcaster-audience.mediaplatform.com/#/event/64a59a804f520718c4b44ba3/registration
You may listen to the results presentation @ 9:30
https://broadcaster-audience.mediaplatform.com/#/event/64a59a804f520718c4b44ba3/registration
Looks like it is the former. Revenues up. Profits down.
They are generating quite a lot of business but haven't figured out how to do it profitably.
Most definitely looks like it needs a new broom and someone in charge with focus and discipline.
Indeed Trevor.
If Pdub and Harchris have not lead a lot of people astray it wasn't for the want of trying.
eg how many of the 179 posts in the last 30 days, 13,396 all time posts from pdub were not promoting BMN.
If VANQ is currently fairly priced then this indicates a bleak or unpredictable future and there was no turnaround. Last years profit before tax from continuing operations of £110m (Market Cap £465m) and 15p dividend (SP 182p) far from being a new base from which to grow were the high water mark for the foreseeable future.
Alternatively if not fairly priced, the clown/clowns currently in charge for reasons best known to themselves are unable or unwilling to address market perceptions at this time. They are happy not to make the investment case for VANQ. They are happy not to identify and allay any nagging doubts that investors might have about skeletons in closets.
Take your pick. Neither option reflects well on out going management.
We will see what happens on Friday. Unfortunately I think it is MLM in the driving seat. So one last underwhelming bluff fest ?
There was a young lady from Kildare
Who was rogered by her beau on the stair
But the banister broke
So he doubled his stroke
And finished her off in mid air!
Given the woolly but positive report at the end of Q1 that everything was on track I’m not expecting any shocks.
"The Group has made a positive start to the year. During the first quarter of the year, the Group continued to trade in-line with management's expectations.”
“The Group's credit card business started 2023 positively Receivables at the end of the quarter were broadly flat versus 31 December 2022 but increased by approximately 18% year-on-year.”
“The Group's vehicle finance business continued to see strong levels of new business and receivables growth during the first quarter of the year. New business volumes in March represented the highest monthly result ever and, reflecting the repositioning towards lower risk customers in recent years, the arrears rate continued to improve during the period. “
“The Group's personal loans business also had a strong start to the year.”
Yes excellent.
What profit ( titter, titter ) do we think will be announced at the interims ?
I sympathise Ubik_Fresh.
Owning PFG/VANQ has been a fairly miserable experience in recent times. Long term holders such as yourself have been poorly served by current management, despite the fact that they themselves have generally been pleased to report “this, that and the other”.
If the SP is where it is then either a) it is fairly rated or b) it is unfairly rated because it is misunderstood and current management are incapable or unwilling to address this issue.
My own thinking is that for some reason that I have yet to fathom it is the later. I’m thinking (famous last words) that the downside at this point is limited and there is potentially very good upside. So I’m prepared to sit tight until I see what sort of mood music comes out of new management.
DYOR ( or as best you can in the foggy lack of transparency that is VANQ )
Re "this share is trading on a derisory forward PE"
I suspect this is true. If so patience will be rewarded eventually.
The BIG problem is that current management have steadfastly refused to explain the business in terms that people can get their arms around, have steadfastly refused to make the investment case for VANQ. They have simply consistently said there is NOT a problem and that things are progressing in line with internal plans. A CMD was mooted a year ago and then they decided that they couldn’t be bothered.
How great would be it VANQ presented a CMD on the level presented by these people
https://www.lsegissuerservices.com/spark/ALPHAWAVEIPGROUP/events/7aadd13f-2514-47e1-8281-baced5bae5e8
(The best CMD I’ve seen – EVER).
The point of the comparison in simply the staggering gulf between other companies will do versus current VANQ management
Maybe there is some gagging order w.r.t the incoming team in place. I don’t know what is going on at VANQ. I incline to the view that somebody somewhere is playing games. I would guess that the incoming team will say one of two things
1) Those statements that there was NOT a problem were untrue. In which case buckle up.
2) Those statements that there was NOT a problem were indeed true. Further we’d like to explain the business / make the investment case. In which case expect the SP to iterate towards sanity.
Though judging by her signature (Page 39 2021 Annual Report) I suspect she has other things on her mind.
I think Tanya has worked out that should BMN survive, Orion will make a mint, but then the cupboard will then be bare for everyone else given current economics. The only hope for shareholders is a seismic and sustained uplift the price of vanadium.
Tony Chan Carusone : "The Increased Adoption of Optical Solutions to Support AI Infrastructure"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vJsTvBbZqJo
For some reason it does not appear on https://www.youtube.com/@AlphawaveSemi/videos ?
Interim's to be presented on July 28th.
Hopefully it will coincide with new management and a team with a vision.
The ‘get up an go’ of the current team ‘got up and left’ long ago. It shouldn’t be hard to improve upon the grey vagueness of the last year or two. Here's hoping.
Page 66 of the 2022 annual report.
CFO of 4 years Tanya Chikanza hasn’t spent even a token brass razoo on BMN shares.
Sensible girl.
As P.T. Barnum said when informed that the human canon ball had quit …
We will never see another of his caliber again!
Watched the short video. My take away
As we know BMN is dead in the water and under it's own steam has little or no prospect of crawling out from under it's crippling debt burden UNLESS there is a drastic uplift in the price of the price of vanadium so ..
If one really wanted a punt/bet/gamble on the quantum leap in vanadium prices buy the Largo Physical Vanadium trust. There would be limited downside and a significant upside would be cream.
Pdub do you not you not think that with your relentless hard sell of BMN you have probably impoverished enough people ?
If for whatever reason ( and I do believe there is a reason ) current management are utterly indifferent to the SP and unable or unwilling to make the investment case for VANQ it is hardly surprising that the market is giving it the cold shoulder.
In recent years current management have thrown out a slew of ‘kitchen sinks’ in the form of impairments and exceptionals (so much so that ‘exceptional’ has practically been the ‘norm’). Meanwhile the balance sheet has been padded out with provisions.
I’d like to think that the supply of ‘kitchen sinks’ had been exhausted ( though I do worry about ‘central costs’ - VANQ's IT strategy does seem at odds with what is happening elsewhere in the industry ).
If at this point VANQ does not have it’s house in order then I would have said MLM was totally incompetent and should not be in the running for chairman if he has designs on that position.
In recent times there has been little or no shareholder engagement beyond the perfunctory minimum. There has been no attempt to make the investment case for VANQ (the CMD mentioned a year ago never happened). Current management have sat on their proverbial holes. I’m hoping that the explanation is that there has been some arrangement with the incomming team not to steal their thunder. Time will tell.