Member Info for hxulcolrdoh

Before Howdent corrects me

each £100m of award = 4.71p per share.

each $100m of award = 3.57p per share.

Just to bore JamYesterday - my thoughts on the Chad arbitration.

9 December 2022 Andrew Knott : "We are delighted to announce the completion of our US$407 million acquisition of ExxonMobil's upstream and midstream businesses in Chad and Cameroon.".

If a company pays $X for something and three months later it is confiscated then I think they are entitled to compensation of $X plus recovery costs. However arbitration awards sought by the company seem excessive and don't exactly resonate with the 'Projects that Matter'/helping Africans vibe that the company likes to project.

Given that there are 2.12bn shares on issue, each $100m of award = 4.71p per share.

However, if there is a high probability of a successful award then the corollary is that the award will already be substantially factored into the current price. Conversely if it is assessed that they there is a low probability of an award which subsequently unexpectedly happens then this will not be in the current price. Cherry picking from each scenario to construct an ideal result is fantasy logic.

In the event of a successful award then the next issue is that Chad is one of the poorest countries on the planet, almost certainly in the bottom 5%. The probability that Chad could or could be coerced into writing a big cheque IMO would be approaching zero. In the worst case the Chad government would simply file the judgement in the "Projects that don't matter" cabinet. Best case would be that they come up with some sort of payment plan which could then be added to SAVE's growing collection of challenging African payments plans.

Though it does look like the Nigerian parliament has dropped the flag on a bond raise (that has little or nothing to do with funding GenCo's)

https://thenationonlineng.net/national-assembly-approves-2-347b-external-borrowing-plan/

If does need to happen before November 21 to finance an existing bond that matures on that date.

I see that Nigeria has managed to get Donald America's attention

https://edition.cnn.com/2025/11/01/politics/trump-pentagon-nigeria-action

One such article

https://bmmagazine.co.uk/news/labour-considers-scrapping-north-sea-windfall-tax-in-dash-for-growth/

I'd agree that the numbers on the March 6th RNS don't match the 113,378,685 number on the March 4th announcement to identify Blacksea as the 'New investor'.

https://www.savannah-energy.com/application/files/6317/4107/5214/2025_03_04_Fundraising_Update_FINAL.pdf

Does this mean an that original (not Blacksea) March 4th 'New investor' and Blacksea are no longer shareholders ?

I'm presuming the 'New investor of March 5th was Blacksea. They were not named.

In any case the 'New investor of March 5th' has been replaced by a new 'New investor'.

5th of March

Blacksea had their name down for 113,378,685 shares.

22nd Oct

"The Company intends to conduct a fundraising of approximately £11.3 million at a price of 7 pence per new Ordinary Share (the "Financing"), to be subscribed in full by NIPCO, a diversified Nigerian energy conglomerate. Accordingly, 161,061,510 new Ordinary Shares are expected to be issued pursuant to the Financing.

In addition, the New Investor intends to acquire, for £7.9 million, 113,378,685 Ordinary Shares issued as part of the Company's March 2025 fundraising"

So Blacksea are gone / replaced by NIPCO.

Slight correction. Current SAVE MC ~$208m

SIPEC valuation = $160m + $35.1 m + US$19.5 million of cash available to SIPEC?

To paraphrase Enzo Ferrari - buy SIPEC and the rest comes free.

Che7win re "If H1 profit (US$101.5 m) continued at the same level in H2, you might project US$203 m for the full year."

This is fantasy maths. The H1 profit was purely a paper profit arising from the non cash recognition of a $160m gain. Specifically SAVE say the SIPEC acquisition was worth $160m more than the "cumulative consideration of approximately US$35.1 million" paid (and more than the entire company current market cap).

Without this gain the H1 2025 accounts (unaudited) would have looked drastically different.

SAVE came back from suspension in March with Total Voting rights of 1,312,194,545 shares. The latest figure is 2,120,654,235 shares.

So the thick end of 40% dilution since March. Just another challenge to reverse.

The auditor is not happy.

"we were not able to obtain sufficient appropriate audit evidence to provide a basis for an audit opinion on these financial statements."

Zengas - Good idea. Filter anyone who doesn't share your "never mind the financials just focus on the O&G numbers" view of the world. Like minded individuals should do the same.

Komakino - fingers crossed that you are right re bond (and other things you hope will transpire). However I'd take that wager. My guess/bet would be that a FGN bond for the power sector (separate from the general budget FGN bond) will not materialise before the year end.

Apologies for playing devil's advocate.

If a company 'X' had annual revenues of say $240m spread evenly spread throughout the year and was paid in a timely manner (say after a month) then 'receivables' would be expected to be $20m. If they had to wait for 2 months then receivables' would be expected to be $40m.

If SAVE had receivables of US$476.4 million at 31/07/2025 then frankly 'Houston we have a problem' (even if there was a 12% improvement over year end).

If fact I think it could be reasonably argued that a big chunk of SAVE 'receivables' should be removed from 'current assets' and relocated to 'non current assets'.

Watched Nikhil Rathi's Oct 15th testimony to the Financial Services Regulation Committee.

What a c0ckwomble.

When results are represented it would be good if they expanded/split receivables to show how much of this was re billed invoices submitted by SAVE to cover for foreign exchange losses.

In the last official results of H1 2024, a big jump in receivables coincided with big jump in 'other operating income' which coincided with large exchange rate losses. So I guess quite a lot.

By all accounts the GenCo's who are supposed to be paying SAVE are themselves under the kosh/facing severe liquidity problems which appear to be caused mostly by the FGN not honouring it's electricity subsidy obligations.

If a Genco/Power Sector 'temporary fix'/'kick the can down the road' FGN bond materialised would this include a component to cover for foreign exchanges? Would this be deemed the problem of individual GenCo's? I could see the various parties fighting like cats in a bag about who may or may not pick up a tab for such claimed losses. Maybe this is where the new Nigerian legal eagle exec comes in?

On the results publication farce my best guess is that there is some brinkmanship regarding 'Going Concern' disclosures. Where SAVE would like a clean bill of health I suspect they are not going to get one but if they fess up to real risks and come up with a plausible plan for dealing with them they will be allowed to relist. At which point BDO will head for the hills as they've already flagged. Maybe this is where the new Nigerian accountant exec with 'Big 4' connections comes in?

On Monday it might be "The dog ate them!" ?

30 Jun 2025 - "no later than during August 2025."

27 Aug 2025 - "will be released in September 2025"

30 Sep 2025 - "Accounts on Friday 10 October 2025."

09 Oct 2025 - "the week commencing 13 October 2025"

17 Oct 2025 - "the first half of the week commencing Monday 20 October 2025"

You could well be right.

They seem to be planning to publish something soon.

I note the absence of the word 'audited'