Member Info for hxulcolrdoh

Still 60% down following the communications fiasco of March 11th.

Any views on whether management make things worse or start to repair the damage next week ?

A week later and the market cap has lost almost 2/3rds.

When new management took over the reigns they gave a one off Q3 presentation aimed at steadying shareholder's nerves.

The message at that time was

- “there is the basis of a very good business”

- “issues are being addressed at pace”

- Recurring cost savings of £60m p.a. have been identified and will be implemented beginning in 2024.

The RNS / Investor Relations FIASCO of March 11th has effectively been interpreted by they market as "Abandon all hope, ye who enter."

Either there was a failing with the first message or there was a failing with the second - BUT THERE WAS DEFINITELY A FAILING!

I wonder what management will say for themselves next week.

Ha Ha! 'Vanishing Bank' - good tag line LuckyBear12.

Not so long ago they were a FTSE 250 company. Now they are a small cap heading towards a penny stock.

What shareholders generally want from their management is a team that will

1. Say what they will do

2. Do what they say

3. By managing communications and expectations avoid outrageous volatility.

By simply throwing a profit warning over the wall last Monday new management have failed miserably in delivering requirement 3. It is beyond any reasonable latitude that the SP should have been crashed by well over 60% in a week.

....

Even by the standards of PFG/VANQ this week has recorded an appalling turn of events for long suffering shareholders. DOWN 64% IN A WEEK!

I can only assume that throwing a profit warning over the wall when there was going to be no opportunity to provide context or color was intended to CRATER the share price ahead of the results /strategy update. If so this has certainly succeeded (possibly beyond expectations).

Shareholders have been served VERY POORLY! I was expecting more from the new management. Fences need to be mended!

VOTE UP if you agree. Please put any other comments on a separate thread.

Old management habitually implied ('lied' might be a better word) that things were better than they actually were.

New management implies a bleak and unrewarding future for the foreseeable.

Has new management got it right or have they swung to an opposite extreme and the truth is somewhere in between ?

I doubt if any LTH's have been beaten up by a stock as much as holders of PFG/VANQ !

I hope not!

It is unacceptable that it has not been possible to trade SAVE shares since 2022.

If and when BMN weather the current crisis presumably the next crisis is that the Orion re financing included "A term loan of US$28.3 million maturing on 30 June 2026." ( https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/BMN/completion-of-convertible-loan-note-refinancing-1yvxemrw6buk797.html )

Interest on the term loan (~11%) was to be repaid quarterly (with a margin increase of 3% when missed), while the first principal repayment (25%) is due in June 2024.

Between suspending payments to critical suppliers, group production being constrained by the cash position and Vanadium prices in the doldrums etc I'm guessing the company is going to struggle to pony up circa $8m by the end of June ?

I did listen to the Nvidia earnings call on Wednesday. It was both impressive and scary.

They are telling the same story as AWE ie we are at the dawn of new era of computing driven by data, custom silicon and AI.

The main thing that I have learnt in life is that there are always 'unintended consequences'. God knows where it ends up. I can't say that I'm looking forward to it.

All my life I have worked in the technology space. However the older I get the less and less I want it in my life. I avoid anything with the word 'Smart' in it. I'd like to but a new car and by that I mean something with a good engine, good brakes, that is reliable and starts with the turn of a key. I don't want the abomination that is an EV. Generally the offerings are over spec'd, over engineered, over priced junk that is full of bug ridden / hackable 'Smarts'. I don't want to have a 'relationship' with my vehicle. Meanwhile it is almost impossible to get a car with something that I do want - a spare wheel.

My luddite views aside my portfolio is significantly up this morning. Personally I'd forgo the gains if the brakes could be put on the 'Brave New World'.

Further from the interims re Niara impact

"The net debt at 30 June 2023 was US$443.4 million an increase of 9% from year-end position (31 December 2022: US$404.9 million). During the period US$74 million of debt was repaid however, there was an overall increase seen in net debt due to the revaluation of Naira cash balances (as discussed above). This has resulted in a marginal increase in leverage5 from 1.8x to 1.9x."

"The principal Naira denominated asset on the balance sheet was cash and this reduced in US$ terms by US$66.5 million when it was translated. This was partially offset by the reduction in Naira denominated liabilities which included borrowings and trade payables."

The interims noted an "unrealised foreign exchange loss following Naira exchange rate harmonisation of US$66.5 million" ?

SAVE shares have been suspended since the YEAR BEFORE LAST.

At what point does continued suspension become taking the proverbial ?

Another excellent background briefing BlueRaphus. I'm never anything other than very impressed with Tony Pialis.

I'm sure that those at the cutting edge are acutely aware of the of the challenges faced by the semi conductor industry including the ability to shift enough data to keep processors fed, having maxed out the physical limits of monolithic Integrated Circuits the need to replace them with modular solutions, power management etc

However the interview did seem to be a bit of an eye opener for the chap conducting the interview, the problems appear to be less appreciated by the wider audience. So for now Alphawave seems to be flying under the radar even though they are at the leading edge in multiple fields that need to be combined to provide tomorrows solutions. I'm not bothered. I will accumulate when I can.

Hi BlueRaphus,

your link is a very accessible short background read.

Re the new CRO (Chief Revenue Officer) - "Before joining Alphawave Semi, he was Senior VP of Worldwide Sales and Corporate Marketing at Inphi, leading the company’s expansion into new markets such as hyperscaler data centers and networking, and achieving more than 10X growth in revenue and stock price when Inphi was acquired by Marvell."

No pressure then.

Their addressable market is recession proof and growing exponentially . 23% per annum seems perfectly plausible.

https://www.red-gate.com/blog/database-development/whats-the-real-story-behind-the-explosive-growth-of-data

Their revenue guidance for 2023 is $340m -> $360m. If they do no more than hold their own $355 compounded by 23% would get them to $1000m by the end of 2027. I'd like to think they could do better.

It is quite pathetic and doesn't help that the company has not published any results for operations after June 30th 2022.

An interesting snippet on the tectonic shifts within the foundry industry

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2y_iv8coTYM

Thanks for clarification - a 'non refundable deposit' makes more sense.