Member Info for hxulcolrdoh

Interesting update on the EV market.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8P95NFlAnmY

I wonder who persuaded the “Black Economic Empowerment” group to convert their ill liquid interest in Vametco into more (and more) liquid BMN shares ?

When they acquire the BMN shares will they take the money and run ?

(They are probably kicking themselves that they did not do this a long time ago)

Whatever the merits of the original investment case the execution has been such that at this point BMN is a Gordian knot of ‘ifs, buts, and maybes’. So many third party interests now supersede those of ordinary shareholders that even if the underlying business can be turned around/salvaged probably the best ordinary shareholders might expect would be a few crumbs.

A very speculative punt. Not one for widows and orphans.

Good question Ubik_Fresh.

With little or no dividend yield why would one buy given that there would be a much better (and risk free) yield on a bank deposit or short term bond yield.

Previous management THRASHED investor confidence in VANQ.

New management in their Q3 presentation did say “there is the basis of a very good business” and that “issues are being addressed at pace” eg they do plan recurring £60m cost savings beginning in 2024.

So I guess it comes down to how much faith and credibility you have in new management. If they deliver what they have intimated can be done then the current price could be a very good entry point. Though even then I’d expect the broader market to take a “show me the money!” stance.

Certainly if the arch charlatan / super bluffer Malcom Le May was in charge the advice would sell.

A link to what new management said if it helps you make up your mind ..

https://brrmedia.news/vanquisbankinggroupq3

AWE had declared that they would publish their "Q3 Trading Statement 2023" this week ?

https://awavesemi.com/investors/financial-calendar/

it is now listed under 'PAST EVENTS' even though nothing has appeared ?

Am I missing something ?

Indeed Theborn despite the massive destruction of shareholder value (£800m by my reckoning) on MLM’s watch there will be no consequences. Rather he will be rewarded.

What really annoys me is that MLM for quarter after quarter declared that everything was ‘on track’ until the day dawned when left and could no longer cover things up.

Andrea Blance and the remuneration committee overhauled remuneration arrangements in 2020. Notionally the revisions were intended to align management interests with those of other shareholders. I can see all sorts of ways in which the changes could be ‘gamed’, put management interests/timescales at odds with those on other shareholders and reward failure. However don’t take my word for it. Just look what has happened.

The revised arrangements have been an epic failure.

When Mr Mc Laughlin has his new broom to hand I think he should be visiting the remuneration committee.

Meanwhile over at VANQ it has been confirmed that ex CEO MLM was as much use as a turnip.

It never ceases to amaze me how far one can get by simply having a plummy voice.

I strongly recommend watching the Q3 presentation. In the circumstances ( the changing of the guard and the hames the outgoing management made of the interim presentation ) incoming management have decided on a one off basis to go out of their way to report on state of the business.

https://brrmedia.news/vanquisbankinggroupq3

I am seeing things such as visibility, accountability and guidance in the new management that were conspicuously absent in the old. The contrast is HUGE. I’m very impressed with the new team. When they mention a CMD they nail a date to the calendar (March 27th). They guide to an adjusted profit before tax1 (PBT) in the range of £25-30m for full year 2023. The undertake to provide guidance for 2024 at the CMD.

The take away is that “there the basis of a very good business” struggling to get out from under the previous mismanagement. Things which came up included

- central costs have exploded 200% since 2019.

- VANQ have 722 employees per £billion lent compared with an industry average of 170.

- there is considerable duplication and waste with the organisation.

When I previously disparagingly suggested Malcom Le May put in his days watching cat videos on YouTube I probably was not that far off the mark. Previous management seem to have been asleep at the wheel. The name “Malcom Le May” now conjures up in my mind of the occasion when the Sun newspaper compared the then England football manager with a turnip.

Anyway “issues are being addressed at pace”. They do plan £60m of cost savings in 2024 at a cost of £6m (numbers, numbers how unusual in a VANQ presentation). Most of these savings will be recurring (as unfortunately they currently employ Tom, Dick and Harry to Tom’s job, they will be in staff cuts)

I’m also pleased to hear the the incoming CTO of Snoop is the new CTO. I have been suspecting the IT strategy has been off the rails.

Another contrast was the level of engagement from institutional investors. Previously whether it was due to a lack of management credibility or the belief that they would just be fobbed off institutional investors had disconnected from VANQ.

Those who have sold up to this point ( which unfortunately didn’t include me – while I didn’t have much faith in MLM that was too much ) got it right. From here on I think selling is wrong. If the CEO puts his hand in his pocket and bought a decent wedge it would send a strong signal that the bottom is in.

If prevailing deposit interest rates were 10% a deposit of $19,000 would yield the same return as the goose therefore in that instance the goose would be worth $19,000.

If prevailing deposit interest rates were 1% a deposit of $190,000 would yield the same return as the goose therefore in that instance the goose would be worth $190,000.

ettc etc.

As for "if you wouldn’t own a share for 10 years don't even think of owning it for 10 minutes"

I think Warrens take on BMN would be ..

"if you wouldn’t own a share for 10 minutes don't even think of owning it for 10 years"

The good news seems to be that we now have competent management.

The bad news is that they replaced incompetent management and now corrective action is required.

Meanwhile MLM will be handsomely paid through to Jan 2024.

Once a year an immortal golden goose lays a 1 oz golden egg. Gold is currently valued at $1900 per oz. How much is the goose worth ?

An infinite amount of money as the goose is immortal ? Something less ?

It is clear to me that some on the board have no rational framework for making investment decisions. This is a basic 'Beginners guide to investing' question. I pose it as a public service.

P.S. Ignore the fact that the egg is gold - historically the only credible money ( eg what X grams would have bought in a market 2000 years ago it would still buy in Tesco's today)

Razor I stand by asinine

Warren Buffet would not be invested for 10 mins if he couldn't with a high degree of probability calculate that the NET PRESENT VALUE of the FUTURE value of his investment exceeded his layout TODAY.

Given that BMN is not currently a viable business and does not make any shareholder returns it would not have got past any of his 'sanity' filters in the first instance

I have no idea where I will be in 5-10 years. Where BMN will be is even more of a lottery. At this point I think that even if the Vanadium market recovers BMN will not as far as shareholders are concerned. It is too indebted to 3rd parties (Orion/SPR). It is these who will get the benefit if there is benefit to be had.

"If your not willing to wait 5-10+ years for this to come good, you shouldn't really be invested IMO."

What an asinine investment strategy.

Q3 update expected this week.

Aside whether it turns out to be an EV or not - full EVs are the OPPOSITE of green. It amuses me when I see clowns drive around in large EV vehicles that are the size of a small house and the owners are probably patting themselves on the back for 'saving the planet'.

Full EV's (if they have a decent range/battery) produce more co2 emissions over their lifetime (even if they are powered by windmills - which they are not) than petrol cars.

Full EVs should have them banned in favour of plug in hybrids. PHEVs have smaller batteries which would suffice for most trips most of the time with petrol only being used occasionally as backup.

https://youtu.be/S1E8SQde5rk?t=520

Another lithium incident ?

I'd definitely feel sorry the shareholders of any company if they were burdened with a team as incompetent and inept as the previous VANQ team of Malcolm Le May, Neeraj Kapur and Patrick Snowball.

Thankfully the above have been replaced.

Talking of Greenland sharks0

Jeremy Wade's River Monsters Series 5 "The Legend of Loch Ness" is worth a look.

https://www.itv.com/watch/river-monsters/1a7358/2a2885a0006

Hi Barcap, trading is most definitely a different game.

As someone once said "In the short-run, the stock market is a voting machine. Yet, in the long-run, it is a weighing machine."

As I have said before for anyone trying to figure out what result the weighing machine might deliver I'd listen to the CMD presentation form January.

https://www.lsegissuerservices.com/spark/ALPHAWAVEIPGROUP/events/7aadd13f-2514-47e1-8281-baced5bae5e8

Hi Barcap I'd wish you luck with the additional short but I'm heavily long so I won't.

Instead I'll hope your overall judgement is as poor as your timing. If you'd done this a week ago you'd be well in the money at this point (or at least mitigated the original short).

I'd like to think that the hyper scalers who have entered into what are likely to be mission critical collaborations with AWE have backed the right horse.

Who knows. Time will tell.