Market disconnect / communications debacle29 Jul 2023 14:40
Reviewing Fridays debacle it seems to me that there has been a massive disconnect between market expectations versus what management thought that they had advertised.
Like the market I confess I got it spectacularly wrong.
Whilst I judged VANQ corporate communications to very poor / abysmal ( resorting mostly to vacuous arm waving and the evasion of accountability through obfuscation) I grossly miscalculated just how bad they actually were – to my cost.
If I revisit the Q1 trading statement and compare commentary (see below) with interim numbers then I think management was at the very least disingenuous. With hindsight it is clear there was always an accident waiting to happen and the largest contributory factor was always going to be outgoing managements resolute refusal to ever offer any form of guidance. I believe guidance might have bridged the gap between commentary and numbers.
Frankly I think the MLM VANQ regime is a case study in how NOT to order market communication / investor relations.
On Monday we have a new team which should be a catalyst for change. They have an awful lot of fences to repair / market trust to build. I’d like to see them make a start on this sooner rather than later. It is going to take a bit of time.
Comments from the Q1 trading statement ...
"The Group has made a positive start to the year. During the first quarter of the year, the Group continued to trade in-line with management's expectations.”
“The Group's credit card business started 2023 positively Receivables at the end of the quarter were broadly flat versus 31 December 2022 but increased by approximately 18% year-on-year.”
“The Group's vehicle finance business continued to see strong levels of new business and receivables growth during the first quarter of the year. New business volumes in March represented the highest monthly result ever and, reflecting the repositioning towards lower risk customers in recent years, the arrears rate continued to improve during the period. “
“The Group's personal loans business also had a strong start to the year.”Given the woolly but positive report at the end of Q1 that everything was on track I’m not expecting any shocks.
"The Group has made a positive start to the year. During the first quarter of the year, the Group continued to trade in-line with management's expectations.”
“The Group's credit card business started 2023 positively Receivables at the end of the quarter were broadly flat versus 31 December 2022 but increased by approximately 18% year-on-year.”
“The Group's vehicle finance business continued to see strong levels of new business and receivables growth during the first quarter of the year. New business volumes in March represented the highest monthly result ever and, reflecting the repositioning towards lower risk customers in recent years, the arrears rate continued to improve during the period. “
“The Group's personal loans
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