Member Info for hxulcolrdoh

Given the woolly but positive report at the end of Q1 that everything was on track I’m not expecting any shocks.

"The Group has made a positive start to the year. During the first quarter of the year, the Group continued to trade in-line with management's expectations.”

“The Group's credit card business started 2023 positively Receivables at the end of the quarter were broadly flat versus 31 December 2022 but increased by approximately 18% year-on-year.”

“The Group's vehicle finance business continued to see strong levels of new business and receivables growth during the first quarter of the year. New business volumes in March represented the highest monthly result ever and, reflecting the repositioning towards lower risk customers in recent years, the arrears rate continued to improve during the period. “

“The Group's personal loans business also had a strong start to the year.”

Yes excellent.

What profit ( titter, titter ) do we think will be announced at the interims ?

I sympathise Ubik_Fresh.

Owning PFG/VANQ has been a fairly miserable experience in recent times. Long term holders such as yourself have been poorly served by current management, despite the fact that they themselves have generally been pleased to report “this, that and the other”.

If the SP is where it is then either a) it is fairly rated or b) it is unfairly rated because it is misunderstood and current management are incapable or unwilling to address this issue.

My own thinking is that for some reason that I have yet to fathom it is the later. I’m thinking (famous last words) that the downside at this point is limited and there is potentially very good upside. So I’m prepared to sit tight until I see what sort of mood music comes out of new management.

DYOR ( or as best you can in the foggy lack of transparency that is VANQ )

Re "this share is trading on a derisory forward PE"

I suspect this is true. If so patience will be rewarded eventually.

The BIG problem is that current management have steadfastly refused to explain the business in terms that people can get their arms around, have steadfastly refused to make the investment case for VANQ. They have simply consistently said there is NOT a problem and that things are progressing in line with internal plans. A CMD was mooted a year ago and then they decided that they couldn’t be bothered.

How great would be it VANQ presented a CMD on the level presented by these people

https://www.lsegissuerservices.com/spark/ALPHAWAVEIPGROUP/events/7aadd13f-2514-47e1-8281-baced5bae5e8

(The best CMD I’ve seen – EVER).

The point of the comparison in simply the staggering gulf between other companies will do versus current VANQ management

Maybe there is some gagging order w.r.t the incoming team in place. I don’t know what is going on at VANQ. I incline to the view that somebody somewhere is playing games. I would guess that the incoming team will say one of two things

1) Those statements that there was NOT a problem were untrue. In which case buckle up.

2) Those statements that there was NOT a problem were indeed true. Further we’d like to explain the business / make the investment case. In which case expect the SP to iterate towards sanity.

Though judging by her signature (Page 39 2021 Annual Report) I suspect she has other things on her mind.

I think Tanya has worked out that should BMN survive, Orion will make a mint, but then the cupboard will then be bare for everyone else given current economics. The only hope for shareholders is a seismic and sustained uplift the price of vanadium.

Tony Chan Carusone : "The Increased Adoption of Optical Solutions to Support AI Infrastructure"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vJsTvBbZqJo

For some reason it does not appear on https://www.youtube.com/@AlphawaveSemi/videos ?

Interim's to be presented on July 28th.

Hopefully it will coincide with new management and a team with a vision.

The ‘get up an go’ of the current team ‘got up and left’ long ago. It shouldn’t be hard to improve upon the grey vagueness of the last year or two. Here's hoping.

Page 66 of the 2022 annual report.

CFO of 4 years Tanya Chikanza hasn’t spent even a token brass razoo on BMN shares.

Sensible girl.

As P.T. Barnum said when informed that the human canon ball had quit …

We will never see another of his caliber again!

Watched the short video. My take away

As we know BMN is dead in the water and under it's own steam has little or no prospect of crawling out from under it's crippling debt burden UNLESS there is a drastic uplift in the price of the price of vanadium so ..

If one really wanted a punt/bet/gamble on the quantum leap in vanadium prices buy the Largo Physical Vanadium trust. There would be limited downside and a significant upside would be cream.

Pdub do you not you not think that with your relentless hard sell of BMN you have probably impoverished enough people ?

If for whatever reason ( and I do believe there is a reason ) current management are utterly indifferent to the SP and unable or unwilling to make the investment case for VANQ it is hardly surprising that the market is giving it the cold shoulder.

In recent years current management have thrown out a slew of ‘kitchen sinks’ in the form of impairments and exceptionals (so much so that ‘exceptional’ has practically been the ‘norm’). Meanwhile the balance sheet has been padded out with provisions.

I’d like to think that the supply of ‘kitchen sinks’ had been exhausted ( though I do worry about ‘central costs’ - VANQ's IT strategy does seem at odds with what is happening elsewhere in the industry ).

If at this point VANQ does not have it’s house in order then I would have said MLM was totally incompetent and should not be in the running for chairman if he has designs on that position.

In recent times there has been little or no shareholder engagement beyond the perfunctory minimum. There has been no attempt to make the investment case for VANQ (the CMD mentioned a year ago never happened). Current management have sat on their proverbial holes. I’m hoping that the explanation is that there has been some arrangement with the incomming team not to steal their thunder. Time will tell.

Anybody know

How did they accumulate a 'Net deferred tax liability' of $76m ?

How long can it be deferred for ?

I'm sitting on my hands myself. I think there just is a hiatus while MLM finishes his cat videos and the new CEO moves in. Hopefully the house is not falling down around him.

What could possibly go wrong. DYOR

In theory AWE should be a good pick & shovel play for the gold rush that is the data / intelligence explosion.

So far it has not benefited. I see Nvidia has reached the $Trillion market cap threshold.

Nice dividend of 10.3p p.s. this morning

Though the 10.3p dividend due on June 7th will be a comfort while we twiddle our thumbs

Orion own BMN and probably will be the only party to make money from the enterprise for the foreseeable.

The re negotiated terms as far as I can see are punitive. The idea that they would take the form they do if BMN had a healthy cash balance seems highly improbable. The idea that BMN prefer to keep their powder dry and happy to accept the terms as they anticipate back stroking their way through sea’s of cash when the commitments are due seems equally as improbable / a fantasy.

Eg a question for the faithful. The $13.5 million element of the loan due in June 2028 @ 12% interest with an exercise price: 8p -

Is the interest paid in the interim or rolled up? It would usually be rolled up but the RNS didn’t say. If it were rolled up it the amount due in 2028 would be $26.65m (or 270m shares if converted). I feel the detail is important.

Unfortunately at present BMN are a marginal producer. They will be the last in the industry to benefit from bouyant vanadium prices. They will be the first to feel a chill wind if prices are depressed. They can’t afford the capital investment that might enable them to make the quantum leap that might materially change their circumstances.

There will be no significant ramp up in production in 2023 (if at all)

Vanadium prices in general are no better than 2022.

The narrative that ‘2023 is going to be a transformative year’ is IMO reckless and irresponsible. Occasionally miracles do happen - but that is what it going to take.