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Interesting documentary that anyone thinking of investing in diamonds should be aware of

https://www.netflix.com/gb/title/81586873

I think Tharisa will have spent ~$135m by y.e. to acquire 80% of Karo Mine holdings rather than 75%, which is were I arrive at 43 cents per share.

I was getting this from https://youtu.be/2e2D6_En-PY?t=1360 ( time offset 22:40min)

Either way it will it a long time before there is a payback on funds invested. I don't see any near term re rate based on dividend yield. Generally I'd expect the whole Karo episode and its off balance sheet implementation would deter a valuation based on anything other than the 'show me the money' / here and now dividend which I think will be unremarkable. Maybe Karo Mining Holdings if it became profitable would be more generous ? Maybe that is why Karo Mining Holdings exists? I don't know. Having originally thought that I'd identified something under valued in Tharisa my own current opinion is that it is not.

I have no agenda other than to put a point of view. DYOR.

Yes Moneyman64 Karo seems to be what has tanked Tharisa. At best Karo was always going to be gamble but I suspect the decision was driven by Medway Developments, other shareholders being a secondary consideration.

If Medway Developments (wearing their 'Tharisa hat' in which they have a ~40% interest ) think funds should go to Karo then this initiative gets a 2.5x multiplier by the time other shareholders funds get roped into the transaction.

Subsequently given Tharisa's 68% interest in Karo Platinum - NON Medway Developments shareholders would have a 68% x 60% = 40.8% interest in the output of Karo Platinum.

Medway Developments would have a 68% x 40% = 27.8% (from wearing their 'Tharisa hat') PLUS a 17% (from wearing their 'Karo Mining Holdings' hat - whilst sitting out capital raises) ie 44.2% in total.

I wonder when Tharisa shareholders think they will see a return on the 43c per share / dividend sacrifice invested into Karo? Would they be confident that if Karo came good (more so for some than others) that there would not be a rinse and repeat of March 2022 ?

From the interim's

- "Eight greater than 100 carat diamonds were recovered and six were sold during the Period."

- (paraphrased) post tax profit of $2m for ordinary shareholders after 'non controlling interests have taken their wedge.

A lot more 100+ carat diamonds will be required to make this turkey fly.

Re "Of course, there will likely be the usual third-party professional trolls speaking in his absence, promising jam tomorrow and stifling any fair debate, as they have done for many years."

What else is a body to do having sacked the HQ of the western Roman Empire.

S&D as far as I know thanks to mass migration etc the UK population and therefore the total addressable market for VANQ continues to grow.

Yes the age distribution and productivity of the population continue to deteriorate, but that too probably plays to VANQ's advantage given the market they aim to serve.

Provident's motto when it came to customers was "never mind the quality look at the quantity". Further it was woefully managed with massive overheads and duplication.

New management have completely reassessed their lending criteria and streamlined their operations. £60m of cost savings have been identified PER ANNUM!

Going forward if VANQ lend billions to good credit risks and operate efficiently then they should be able to deliver considerable returns in the years ahead

Re FFS

Indeed.

Mired in debt with a $75m deferred tax liability the company is the personal piggy bank of the very well paid CEO and some other interests.

The company has an extremely poor history of delivering dividends to shareholders and it's best days are behind it.

If ever there were any monies to be distributed they will be trousered by 'non controlling' interests while blowing a raspberry at ordinary shareholders.

T o anyone thinking that they have found a 'rough diamond' (pardon the pun) I'd suggest they haven't and there is very good reason why the market holds it nose and walks on by where GEMD is concerned.

More likely dodged a bullet Sharetrader78.

In March 2022 when Tharisa (then market cap of £460m) announced bumper post tax profits of $167.2m shareholders rubbing their hands in glee at the potential dividend distributions were bitterly disappointed when told that profits would largely be diverted into a new project Karo Platinum.

At that time based on a basket price of $2140 Karo Platinum had a NPV of $770m with a cost to first ore in mine of $392m.

Today with a basket price of < $1300 the mine is probably uneconomic.

Ultimately Tharisa would own 68% of Karo Platinum with minor shareholders

- 15% Zimbabwe Government who contribute nothing ( free carry )

- 17% Medway Holdings who contribute nothing ( other than sitting on their hands during capital raises )

Tharisa shareholders have contributed $93.6m (that we know about so far) in capital raises to the project. The last reported injection was $37.7m on 31 July 2023 for a 2.68% interest in Karo Mine Holdings. This took Tharisa's interest to 75% of Karo Mine holdings. Tharisa have stated that they intend to increase this to 80%. So I think it would be safe to say that over $100m of Tharisa funds that could have been distributed to shareholders will have been diverted to Karo Platinum. I very much doubt if they will see this money again let alone with a return.

Still $392m to first ore in mine is a lot of money that has to go somewhere. If Tharisa shareholders are not getting much value out of Karo Platinum I'm sure that on a much shorter timescale those involved in the financing and construction contracts are.

Maybe PGM prices will rebound and Karo Platinum will turn into a money spinner. Would Tharisa shareholders then reap the reward ? Or would there be a replay of March 2022 ?

Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me.

Re : "the question on eveyones mind is the comprehensive update that AK and Savannah will provide on the business ..."

Dream on / if only.

Such under handed behavior would be proof positive that SS was uninvestable.

I know there are some on the board who say that they're happy to wait until hell freezes over as long SAVE can eventually come back and knock the ball out of the park.

As someone with no access to funds tied up in SAVE for heading towards 2 years IMO current management has served shareholders very poorly. I'll not be surprised if Savannah turns into another San Leon.

Don't tell me to sell up and move on. I can't.

You'd like to think that if the company was run competently then they could turn a decent profit on a couple of £Bn loan book. In which case a SP of 127p / Market Cap of £325m is eminently achievable.

However I certainly made the mistake of believing previous management when they said quarter after quarter that they were ON TRACK to meet 'internal management expectations'. I didn't release that 'internal management expectations' were that the business would go to hell in a hand cart (and then some).

Are the new team different ? Famous last words - I believe so. At least they put numbers and dates to their ON TRACK assurances. So we will know within 20 months.

Some excerpts from the RNS of August 1

"ON TRACK to achieve £60m (p.a.) previously announced cost savings by the end of 2024."

"We remain ON TRACK to deliver low single digit ROTE in 2025 and mid-teens ROTE in 2026, in line with previous guidance."

"Further business streamlining to deliver an additional £15m of cost savings by the end of 2025."

Re "There's no reduced risk on small deals. "

Incorrect.

Probabilities might be the same but consequences scale - so the risk is not the same.

South Sudan ranked 177th most corrupt country from a list of 180 by Transparency International

https://www.transparency.org/en/cpi/2023/index/ssd

Let's get real. It is a fool's errand trying to guess what might happen in South Sudan or when.

I don't think this is going anywhere until management feel circumstances permit them to reinstate some sort of decent dividend.

Two things struck me about the results presentation last week

1) the huge improvement in management quality compared with the previous clowns ( Malcom Le May/Neraj Kapur)

2) the complete lack of market interest. It seems the previous management have soiled the nest to such an extent that new management are not getting a fair hearing.

I do hope the vehicle financing operation is not exposed to the catastrophic depreciation/resale value of EV's.

The next claims gig coming down the pipe is myEVclaim.com.

Watched the result presentation.

The jury is still out.

Management reports that green shoots are starting to appear and that losses are substantially explained restating previous numbers / exceptional charges. Cowboy claims activity is no worse / no better / ongoing.

They now believe that the wardrobe choc a block with skeleton's left by messr's Le May and Kapur has been dealt with.

The Group remains on track to deliver low single digit ROTE in 2025 and mid-teens ROTE in 2026. They don't care to offer an opinion on how this will eventually translate into profitability.

The question is what is the outlook.