Member Info for hxulcolrdoh

Thanks for the feedback guys. As a past shareholder noticing the destruction in SP and wondering if it represented an opportunity I feel I now understand why it is where it is.

IMO Tharisa has no option other than to batten down the hatches until they have weathered the Karo storm. Personally I see no catalyst for a re rate (eg improved metal prices) until the day dawns when metaphorically a champagne bottle is smashed across the bough of the SS Karo.

I can only explain Karo to myself by either stupidity or vested interests gaming the system. It certainly was never a prudent capital management decision regardless of how ‘Pillars’ Pouroulis would like to dress it up. This is a pity as below executive level the company seems to well managed operationally.

For another day but I note in the accounts

1) a rather large current liability provision of $56m should they lose a dispute about royalty payments ?

2) a rather large non current liability for deferred taxes of $135m. For how long can they be deferred ? Can this be offset against something else ?

Thunderbuddy - thank you for the correction .

"Tharisa shareholders have contributed $165m in capital raises to KMH to acquire 76.22%" should read

"Tharisa shareholders have contributed $145m in capital raises to KMH to acquire 76.22%"

Potentially Tharisa shareholders will ultimately shell out $222.3m for an 80% stake in KMH notionally valued at $486.5m. So the subject

"RE: $242.3m dividend sacrifice for Karo ?" should read

"RE: $222.3m dividend sacrifice for Karo ?"

Hi Mike1959

Not being invested (but intrigued by why Tharisa is treated like a pariah ) I was putting off the research/calculations.

If my figures are correct I estimate that ultimately Tharisa shareholders will contribute $242.3m / 82 cents ps towards capital raises for KMH (Karo Mining Holdings) if management hold to their stated objective of owning 80% of KMH (68% of the mine).

Given that Tharisa proper has returned $112m odd in dividends over the past 10 years I doubt if the KMH investment will pay this back in 20 years.

Just an opinion but this seems to me like mal investment of the highest order.

So far Tharisa shareholders have contributed $165m in capital raises to KMH to acquire 76.22% thus

Date Acquired Cost KMH Shares added

13/06/18 26.80% $ 4,500,000

31/03/22 39.50% $27,000,000

19/05/22 1.21% $ 8,500,000

02/06/22 1.29% $ 9,900,000

10/08/22 1.22% $10,200,000

30/06/23 2.33% $27,300,000 3800

31/07/23 2.68% $37,700,000 5248

30/08/24 1.22% $20,000,000 2784

The last 3 transactions imply that a KMH share is valued at $7,184.

If the 3800 new shares issued at 30/06/23 diluted Medway's then 30% by 2.33% to 27.67% this implies there were 3800 / (30.0/27.67 - 1) = 45,125 KMH shares on issue before that dilution.

Post 30/08/24 there would be 56,957 KMH shares on issue with Tharisa owning 76.22% (43,412) and Medway 23.78% (13,544).

To complete the dilution a further 10,763 shares would need to be issued. The implied cost @ $7,184 ps would be $77.3m. Tharisa shareholders would then have shelled out $242.3m for an 80% stake in KMH notionally valued at $486.5m.

" but apparently its been delayed til Easter" ...

Which Easter?

Hi Troajan, watched the Proactive interview.

Unfortunately for Tharisa shareholders until the Karo situation is resolved I believe they are in a 'heads you don't win, tails you lose' situation i.e. they will not benefit if metal prices move to the upside but they will be exposed on the downside. At some point in the future they will probably look back at 2022 -> 2027 as the 'wilderness years'. IMO the best they can hope for is that the SP is occasionally and temporarily goosed by share buy backs.

It is likely that $200m of Tharisa shareholder funds will be contributed in capital raises for KMH (Karo Mining Holdings). A similar amount of debt will be required to complete the mine.

Elsewhere the CEO highlights that $112m has been returned to shareholders in dividends over the past 10 years at Tharisa (a bigger entity than KMH). Using this metric for a 'back of the envelope' calculation and factoring in that there is a lead time for Karo would suggest that the payback for the $200m invested will in be 20 years. 'Two birds in the hand is worth one in the bush' apparently makes sense to management.

It is a pity that what appears to be an operationally well run company is burdened by the board that it has. Since the decision to proceed with Karo £250m has been wiped off the Market cap. In any normal company Phoevos 'Pillars' Pouroulis would be toast.

If anyone eventually comes out of the Karo affair smelling of roses it will be Medway. At NIL expense to themselves (while wearing their 'KMH 'hat') they will end up with 20% of KMH.

Hi thunderbuddy to put the $20m for an extra 1.22% of Karo Mine holdings into perspective - on March 31 2022 Tharisa paid $27m to take their stake from 26.8% to 66.3%.

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/THS/exercise-of-farm-in-option-karo-pgm-project-pv8xtiaqa5v4fgk.html

Generally increases over 5% need to be notified so in recent times they have been under 5% and buried in the footnotes at increasingly exorbitant valuations. The privilege of throwing money at Karo seems to be that it entitles one throw even more money at it for even less.

My general impression of Tharisa is that operationally it is a well run company.

From a potential investment point of view IMO there are two big clouds

Firstly for a company the size of Tharisa, Karo was always (no hindsight needed) going to be a big gamble with a range of outcomes between spectacularly bad to spectacularly good. It was a 'brave' rather than a prudent decision thrown over the wall in March 2022. At present when industry PGM capacity is being taken off line Tharisa are 'Investing through the cycle'. Whether this is taking a bad idea and developing it further or a masterstroke remains to be seen. At present funding the completion of the project is an issue given where we are in the cycle (is this an 'opportunity' for Tharisa shareholders to throw more money at the problem?). At present it is unlikely that there will FOM (first ore in mine) before 2026 at the earliest.

Secondly I do suspect there is a conflict of interest between Medway wearing their 'Tharisa hat' and Medway wearing their 'Karo Mine Holdings hat'. I suspect the interests of ALL shareholders was a secondary issue when making the initial investment decision and its subsequent funding.

The ‘big reveal’ on Karo is likely to take at least 2 years. Between then and now management is likely to keep all powder everywhere dry should it be needed. So I do not anticipate returns over and above those currently on offer. At it's current yield Tharisa is probably reasonably valued.

I'll keep an eye on it from the side lines and review when there is new information.

I'd expect capital raised to be used for mine development. In addition Karo Mining Holdings may have borrowed further funds as the capital raised would not cover the full cost. The FOM (first ore in mine) date has obviously slipped. Thus the capacity to pay back loans will also have slipped.

Karo Mining Holdings will own 85% of Karo Platinum (the mine) and Tharisa is expected to own 80% of Karo Mining Holdings ie 68% of Karo Platinum (the mine).

Hi Sotolo - the figure is correct.

See Note 23 on page 71 of the accounts.

https://www.tharisa.com/pdf/investors/annual-results/2024/ifrs-full-version-with-signed-audit-report.pdf

Annual dividend $13.28m / 4.5 cents per share. Yield 5.31%.

Meanwhile a further $20m has been paid to acquire another 1.22% interest in Karo Mining.

So far Tharisa has contributed $144.7m / 49 cents per share to acquire a 76.22% share in Karo Mining.

Their stated aim is to acquire 80%. Based on the most recent transaction ($20m for 1.22%) this implies a further spend of at least $60m and an overall spend of at least $204.7m / 69 cents per share.

Ultimately Tharisa would end up with 68% of Karo Platinum (the mine). Other partners (who have contributed nothing) would end up with 17% Medway Developments, 15% Government of Zimbabwe respectively.

Based on their current yield Tharisa is probably fairly priced.

A large proportion of Tharisa share value has been moved sideways into Karo Mining. What the payback period is, whether it will ever be paid back, whether it will repaid with interest is anyone's guess. Share price appreciation will not happen until the answer becomes clearer. My guess is that if Tharisa shareholders ever got back to where they were in March 2022 they'd be doing well but I can't see that happening soon. For retail shareholders Karo was a reckless gamble. If it doesn't work out no one will be held accountable.

'A visual representation'

'anticipated to be the country’s first wind farm'

Insulting flannel that ignores the elephant in the room.

It certainly will do them no harm.

I suppose it depends on the uptake / appeal of Rebellions products

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vY6W9VxUA1Q

and whether others concur with the CTO of Rebellions who opined

"Alphawave Semi offers the highest-performance connectivity IPs in the industry, but what truly influenced our decision was their leadership in customizable chiplet-based design. They have demonstrated expertise in both high-speed connectivity and interoperable chiplet architectures, delivering to the industry not just proven IP but also standard chiplet products."

It is agreed that a broker 'B' sourcing a financial product for a client 'C' has a fiduciary responsibility to the client in terms of sourcing the product.

Through some mental gymnastics the learned justices in the appeal court have asserted that

1) if 'B' does not meet their obligations to 'C' then it is 'A's(the source of the product) fault (or they are at least 'partially???' guilty ).

2) if 'C' was happy to accept an agreed price for a product then they can subsequently claim that the product was mis sold if it wasn't accompanied by a breakdown of how the price was arrived at which included sales commissions etc.

This morning I agreed a price of £1.55p for 2L of milk with Tesco. Can I put in a claim against Tesco given that they have not revealed what was marked up and where between the farm and the supermarket shelf?

More importantly I accepted a salary from my employer. My employer did not reveal what my colleagues are paid. On that basis my salary acceptance was not an 'informed' choice? Can I sue them?

etc, etc

Accepting the opening statement of the post IMO two things need to happen

1) the insanity (vehicle finance would be the very small tip of a very big iceberg) that that would ensue in the ‘Claims Management’ world if the appeal court decision stands needs to be stopped.

2) 'Claims Management' generally has gotten out of hand. It is in the interests of CMCs to go on speculative 'fishing expeditions' at little expense to themselves but at considerable expense to the target companies of their claims. So claims coming from CMCs should be accompanied by an administration fee that is reimbursed if the claim is upheld. Otherwise not.

VANQ have no DCA exposure.

As stated by the company "Vanquis is not subject to the current FCA Motor Commissions Review that has been focused on discretionary commission arrangements, which Vanquis did not participate in".

VANQ believe they have complied with the letter and the spirit of existing law.

However an appeal court in considering a case where DCA payments were the main issue has proposed retrospectively ruling in favour of considerably extending the accepted definition of a car dealer's/credit broker's fiduciary duty. To the extent that probably anyone who has ever financed any purchase (cars are only the beginning) can stick in a claim.

If sense does not prevail mayhem will ensue.

"Maybe we'll get a pleasant dividend surprise "

I doubt it and it will certainly will not make a dent in the 43 cent per share dividend sacrifice otherwise known as Karo.

I'd be expecting a dividend yield that supports the current share price. No more. No less.

Long before I started this thread BMN has been a source of bemusement me for many years.

I was lucky enough to benefit from BMN's initial success having bought on the proposition that they were going to be a significant Vanadium producer with production costs in the lowest quartile (ie they'd be the last outfit standing/be able to weather any storms in a market turn down).

When promises and plans diverged from reality (missed production targets, excessive borrowing on egregious terms, inability to manage plant, inventory mismanagement etc ) I bailed.

If I or anyone else questioned the red flags they were a 'trolling shorter' (whatever that is). As others have noted the board was like a cult. The 'Jim Jones' of the 'Peoples Temple' aka BMN board was PDUB. PDUB could in no way be passed off as just another poster with a opinion just as valid as anyone else's. He bombarded the board with over 10k+ posts in support of BMN. Largely he remained patronisingly 'helpful' to anyone who anyone 'who didn't get it'. Acolytes such as knutsfordnotary or codejunkie (an unusual moniker for someone who'd make a sponge look like an intellectual) demonstrated their allegiance / defended the compound by spewing bile on anyone who 'was not on message'.

Occasionally someone sensible like TrevorBrooking would try and pass on a reasoned argument. Even halfmanhalfgoat in his own way (clashing cymbals in the ears of the sleeping) tried to waken up the faithful. However there are none so deaf as those that will not listen.

Unfortunately it has all come to the AIM equivalent of a Jonestown end. It is a pity for all the casualties churned up in it's wake.

An interesting video from 3 years ago when BMN were at 19p - Portfolio Matters : Bushveld Minerals - Share Talk

https://youtu.be/DT3sLxgxgFs?t=175

Where is Oisining ?

https://youtu.be/01i19qog8Pw?t=45

Rockwood Strategic Plc / Harwood Capital LLP also seem to be thinking along these lines.

Interesting.

Bushveld shares have a par value of 1p.

AFAIK it is not possible to have a share raise offering shares at a price that is below par value,

If that is their only option for raising necessary money then they are probably stuffed.

Sorry to be negative but in the grand scheme of things my indifference knows no bounds.

Personally the only news that I'm interested in is that SAVE are going to start trading again.

I could be wrong but this could be a “The time to buy is when there's blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own.” moment.