Member Info for hxulcolrdoh

Https://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB0007668071/

Edit :

Come back John van Kuffeler. All is forgiven. £1.3bn would do nicely.

Come John van Kuffeler. All is forgiven. £1.3bn would do nicely.

Re "Vanq will have a relief rally if there is any justice 80p+", remember

FRI 08 March 2024 VANQ = 124p.

MON 11 March 2024 VANQ issued an update ( https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/VANQ/update-ahead-of-strategy-seminar-qg86yf33fpq8l3w.html )

"The Group has been experiencing significant levels of third party complaint submissions. Reviewing them is causing an increase in administration costs. While the vast majority of these complaints are not upheld, the associated costs are likely to materially impact the Group's profitability in 2024.

TUE 12 March 2024 VANQ = 57p.

Progress in reigning in cowboy CMCs if it is coupled with confirmation that the planned $60m cost savings has been delivered and coupled with news that the business transformation is on track should result in a significant re rate.

Fingers crossed for March 13th.

This should help VANQ if it comes to pass

https://www.moneysavingexpert.com/news/2025/02/financial-ombudsman-claims-firms-charges/

Is it fragrant Pooks ?

If FCA rules in this area are wrong and/or insufficient can they be sued for incompetence / failing to uphold their fiduciary obligations to the industry?

I believe last Feb's announcement was specifically a response to FCA developments that would not be expected to be repeated.

Another informative and amusing piece on Deepseek ..

DeepSeek stole our tech... says OpenAI : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hpwoGjpYygI

The most amusing bit is where as the salvos in the AI war are documented it is noted that

"Europe is focused on other technological innovations like bottle caps you can't take off"

Priceless, pathetic but true. Just what you'd expect when the place is run by vastly overpaid student union types who've largely never worked in industry.

Still the EU does have a credible net zero policy. Zero industry. Zero emissions. Job done. High fives all around.

that tharisa is where it is really is a shame. it was all going so well until the day that phoevos 'six pillars' pouroulis announced that "capital will need to be more patient, or willing to explore new regions."

should it eventually turn up smelling of roses zero credit should accrue to management for embarking on such an obviously reckless gamble. i really can't fathom whether it was stupidity, hubris or there is method to the madness.

certainly tharisa shareholders have been on the ****ty end of a wealth transfer exercise. it does cross my mind that having driven the sp into the gutter should sunny uplands ever loom over the horizon there might be a move to take the company private and trouser the proceeds awaited by the patient.

At their 27-Mar-2024 CMD VANQ guided that by 2026 they'd

- Increase Gross receivables to £3.0-£3.5b ( 2023 - £2.35bn )

- Reduce cost to income ratio to 49% or less ( 2023 - 60.9% )

- Transition to mid-teens ROTE ( 2023 - 3.2% )

If they hit such numbers VANQ would be valued considerably higher than it is now. They'd need to be sharing evidence of concrete progress real soon.

(See slides 33 + 39 : https://www.vanquisbankinggroup.com/application/files/6317/2303/1992/Vanquis_Investor_Seminar_Showfile_WEB_VERSION.pdf)

Hi Mike,

When I started the thread I'd calculated that as of 30/08/24 Tharisa had diverted $145.1m of shareholder funds to acquire 76.25% of KMH ( 64.8% of the mine ) in capital raises.

To achieve the stated aim of owning 80% of KMH ( 68% of the mine ) would entail subscribing for approximately a further 10,763 shares with an implied additional value of $77.3m.

The 1,782 additional shares in KMH for $12.8 million that you mention ties in with my projections and suggests a further $64.5m will be spent to acquire a further approximately 8,981 shares.

So ultimately in terms of capital raises something like $214.2m (72 cents per share!) will have been contributed to KMH. Meanwhile KMH is working to secure an additional $225m of debt (to add to existing bonds secured by KMH but guaranteed by Tharisa) with a view to finishing the mine.

The above puts share buybacks of £3.6m and a 2024 dividend of 4.5 cents into perspective. By the time all the debt is repaid when do Tharisa shareholders think they will see their 72 cents p.s with a return ?

KMH may yet not turn into a disaster (or it might) but nothing short of a PGM super cycle is going to turn KMH into anything other that a mal investment of the highest order (obviously no heads will roll).

I see Nvidia has rallied a bit after taking an initial hit. Personally I think Deepseek undermines prevailing AI thinking and that going forward the stocks supported by that thinking will suffer.

I'm a big believer in Pareto's law ie the notion that most outcomes/results are generated by a small selection of inputs, 20% of your customers will generate 80% of your profits etc.

If I visit the dentist the only capability I require from the dentist is that they are a good dentist. I couldn't care less that they don't know how to repair a broken camshaft or couldn't compose a ditty on the subject of 'mother in laws' to the tune of 'knees up mother Brown'. AI doesn't need to everything about anything at all times to be useful.The concept of 'distilled AI' makes perfect sense to me and opens up the way to a paradigm shift in AI thinking. Smaller / personal / domain specific models requiring much lighter hardware support I think would open up lucrative markets for Alphawave.

Personally I think technologies like Copilot/Gemini/Apple Intelligence etc are an abomination and I would not buy any product that came with embedded AI phoning home to big tech (I'm a fan of Rob Braxman) so I'd be glad to see them take a hit.

Do we have an opinion on whether Deepseek (explained SUPER BRILLIANTLY by Dave - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r3TpcHebtxM ) will impact AWE's prospects ?

I've have thought the democratisation / clipping the wings of tech behemoths w.r.t. AI would have been to AWE's advantage.

When other shorts are retreating up the beach in the face of an incoming water Caius seem to think they can the tide.

The new CEO and CFO have now had 18 months at the helm. Unquestionably they were handed a mess. Along the way factors beyond their control have further made their life more difficult.

In the past two years (timeline below) ALL updates and news from VANQ have received a negative reaction. When do things turn positive? I'd like to think that this starts on March 13th and the company can share a report that is positively received.

TIMELINE FOR LAST TWO YEARS

============================

31-Mar-2023 Price 233p : First results reporting as Vanquis.

28-Jul-2023 Price 152p : Final half year report from super bluffer Malcom Le May. Replaced with a competent CEO Ian Mc Lauglin. It becomes clear that Le May and CFO Neeraj Kapur were grossly incompetent.

11-Mar-2024 Price 125p : Ahead of full year results the company advises that it is the target of cowboy claims management activity.

27-Mar-2024 Price 52p : Results overshadowed by CMC issues.

7-Nov-2024 Price 41p : In the Q3 trading update the company noted the bizarre Court of Appeal 'Hopcraft v Close Brothers Ltd' decision that threatens to turn a seeming contained Discretionary Commission Arrangement dispute (having nothing to do with Vanquis) into an industry wide (as a starting point) claims management bonanza/fiasco.

Hope you found the pop corn Knot.

Enjoying your running commentary!

FT Article - https://archive.ph/ZPt8O - courtesy of MaryBr190 on CBG board

I note Tharisa have stopped updating their basket prices. I presume this is a consequence of their cyber attack. I presume they have been unable to rustle up enough bitcoin to pay a ransomware demand.

The excellent Patrick Boyle on the subject of "The Economic Toll of The Los Angeles Wildfires" - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V7zKIKEMlhY

The relevance is that when litigants / claimants / legislators start gaming the system this inevitably results in unintended consequences and a system that serves nobody.