Member Info for hxulcolrdoh

I believe this could be extended if mutually acceptable ?

In the commodity world boom could be around the corner. Bust could be around the corner. Future events could stand the report on it's head either way. Which is why no hindsight was required to see that a massive gamble such as Karo for a company the size of Tharisa was verging on insanity.

So nine years after the March 2022 launch the project is projected to break even in 2031.

"The project (Karo Platinum) shows a positive NPV of USD83.3m" (presumably $56.6m to Tharisa)

After Tharisa has spent $137m (to Spet 2024) on the project has outstanding capex of $338m is likely to be financed $97m in raises from Tharisa (to get them to 80% of KMH) plus $241m in finance.

Would you lend them money ?

Phoevos really has given a masterclass on how to fix something that wasn't broken and leave it FUBAR'd in the process.

The very super excellent Christopher Barnatt aka ExplainingComputers provided an update on the RISC-V market on Easter Sunday - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9s8hPmCZ0mk

Much like Linux was a niche technology until it relentlessly took over the world, RISC-V seems to be on the rise and following a similar path. If it is not mainstream yet it is going to be eg Google have announced official support for RISC-V and plans to make it a “tier 1 platform” alongside Arm.

ARM cited RISC-V as potential threat to their buisness model when they IPO'd. As part of the AWE package it would have been unattractive (other than as an opportunity to help strangle it at birth).

At Qualcomm RISC-V would have advantages. They are moving in that direction anyway along with Apple etc. It would reduce their reliance on Arm and their and their ownership/litigation issues (I'm sure the attempted sale of Arm to Nvidia caused Qualcomm some anxiety). Where kit is built with RISC-V ARM royalties are saved (and I'm sure they are very substantial at Qualcomm/could offset acquisition costs). RISC-V's neutrality would diversify the risk that Donald America might get out of bed with a random idea about what technology could be used where.

So even though SerDes tends to be what everyone leads an explanation of interest in AWE with I do think (possibly wishful thinking) that from a Qualcomm point of view the the full AWE offering (SerDes, Chiplets, IP, RISC-V) might be uniquely very attractive.

Qualcomm is over dependent on mobile chips / handsets. They can't assume business from Apple/Samsung etc is a given. They do need to diversify hence their recent AI related acquisitions. Alphawave technology would complement their strategic shift.

If I were a book maker I'd probably say the odds of an offer from Qualcomm are slightly better than even.

Mixing my metaphors ...

I think such an offer would put the cat amongst the pidgeons, I suspect there are parties who would be happy to sit on their hands for now but an offer would force their hand.

In my (worthless) opinion there are 3 outcomes.

1) Nothing comes of the Qualcomm interest. I don't think this will do AWE any harm. They are on a good path. Industry giants (Qualcomm/Siemens/Arm) have been kicking the tyres. There is something of value there.

2) Qualcomm proposes something other than an offer. Anything agreed I'm sure it would be of mutual benefit.

3) Qualcomm makes an offer. Unless it is an offer that Tony can't refuse it is probably round 1 of a bidding war and I'd not be surprised to see a bun fight between Qualcomm/Siemens/Arm/Intel/whomever.

Posted elsewhere - an interesting article on the Siemens link that could have relevance w.r.t. recent developments

https://semiwiki.com/ip/alphawave/354504-alphawave-semi-is-in-play/#comments

Listened to the earning call. Didn't really know what to make of it. My impression was that they are treading water.

On technical front Tony bangs the drum as ever asserting AWE are achieving / over achieving.

On commercialisation of technology (design wins aside) they are under achieving.

I am leaning to the view if in some form Qualcomm can put their heft behind the technology more could be delivered commercially.

Https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/AWE/final-results/16995418

Thanks bigw77!

I will take your word for it on the dates.

I don't use use Google Calendar / download events. A simple published date would be orders of magnitude simpler/more helpful.

Where investor relations in most companies can put a date in a calendar months in advance this seems to be beyond the capabilities of Alphawave.

I did send investor relations an email (twice) asking for a date but they can't be bothered replying.

Last year full year results were published on the 23rd.

Elsewhere.

The UK announced a 104% tariff on corn kernels.

Commenting Keir Starmer said "Sit down Trump I'm not done yet!"

Https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/AWE/invesco-ltd-form-83-qualcomm-inc-public-dealing-disclosure-ldedp5xtt0zfz6v.html

The law is an Ass is my main take away from listening to the arguments on both sides. Applicable case law is like some garden that has been massively overgrown with weeds. It is a shambles.

This is good news if you are a KC trousering loads of wonga whilst arguing the bit out with other impressively well paid KC's. The question is do they take a collection of half baked ideas and develop them further or does someone impose some sort of order on the subject?

Re "obviously not captured in the share price."

Probably not captured in the receivables either!

On this day 3 years ago (Tharisa SP 146p)..

Phoevos 'Six Pillars' Pouroulis pulled the rug out from under shareholders expecting to benefit from buoyant PGM prices. Announcing the Karo project he pontificated "Capital will need to be more patient, or willing to explore new regions".

I'm not sure which pillar underpinned this sage advice. Maybe behind closed doors pillar six "Responsibly enrich the lives of all our stakeholders" was redrafted as "IRRESPONSIBLY game the system in an attempt to enrich some of our stakeholders at the expense of others" ?

Guidance from 2022 : "The Karo Project has a 24-month design and construction schedule - starting 1 July 2022, with the first ore in the mill ("FOIM") planned for July 2024."

Potentially impacting near term dividends a 3 year $26.3m bond taken out by KMH in 2022 but guaranteed by Tharisa will be due this year. Will it be repaid or refinanced?

Popcorn - the breakfast of champions!

In fact the AR doesn't even list Norges Bank

You are correct PUTUP something is wrong. I think it is the AR.

Before today the last filing that I see was on August 2nd

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/VANQ/holdings-in-company-xkxp0pgn8h5tf05.html

Schroders Plc

Sorry Komakino but re

"If there is an award to Savannah then the Chadian oil revenues could be paid by deductions from future oil revenue payments or seizure of Chadian government assets held abroad." ...

I doubt you are living in cuckoo land. The ICA does not possess direct enforcement powers to compel payment of financial judgments or arbitral awards.

If there were an award in favour of SAVE from the ICA then I'd expect it do fall into the "Projects that don't matter" category from a Chad government point of view. In the grand scheme of things they have much bigger problems to worry about.

Indeed TL resource nationalism is on the rise.

As for the hope that companies such Savannah might be in line for large compensation payments from say the Chadian government - this is utterly laughable.

The TOTAL Chadian government annual budget (nobody really knows probably including the government) is something like $2.8bn broken down as

Defense 25%, Debt servicing 20%, Public Admin 20%, Infrastructure 15%, Health/Education 10%, Social Welfare 5%.

If a judge awarded Savannah a large payout that the country couldn't pay the judge wouldn't get paid. That would probably be the least of his/her worries. The locals would be demanding a head on a stick.

I doubt that from a Chadian government point of view compensating Savannah would fall into the "Projects that don't matter" category.