Member Info for hxulcolrdoh

Mr Mc Cloud swings by to catch up on progress on the nice little ‘doer upper’.

He clasps his hands to his head, rolls his eyes and moves on.

I'm still not really any the wiser regarding when and on what scale Non Recurring Engineering revenues translate into recurring product shipments, sales and royalties.

Engineering wise the company is in Linda "I don't get out of bed for less than $10,000 a day" Evangelista mode. It seems to be the case that a) a lot of money is being thrown at AWE to develop products and they can cherry pick opportunities with prospective high margins /revenues. However it remains the case that the company is betwixt and between developing products and a product ramp. In the short term ( certainly H1 2023 ) financially the company will continue to tread water.

Over time as design wins translate into shipable products revenue visibility will become much more predictable - but we are not there yet.

I am impressed with the new CFO. He does claim that AWE have dramatically improved their ability to forecast and manage cash. I do believe him. He does seem to have hit the reset button in terms of procedures and projections.

Some points shared by Tony -

- 80% of pipeline comes from AI/AI related opportunities

- 83% in advanced nodes (e.g. 2023 6 design wins at 3nm are expected to translate to revenue over 16-24 months )

- allegedly AWE is one of only 3 companies in the world leading edge with IP connectivity solutions for AI.

- current AWE 'projected' silicon IP revenues are $500m starting in 2025.

- Banias which has yet to generate revenue 'is on track' to start shipping products in the second half of 2024. Orders have been received from a leading North American hyper scaler and a networking OEM. Work has already commenced on next generation products.

- custom silicon market reported at the CMD as a $7bn TAM estimated to grow to £11bn by 2027 - revised to grow to $30bn by 2027.

- opto electronics market reported at the CMD as a $4bn TAM estimated to grow to £7bn by 2027 - also expected to increase significantly.

AWE's addressable market is huge and they are well placed carve out a lucrative slice of the cake.

There was an attempt by an analyst (Sandeep) to get some sort of handle on likely product deliveries with a question (I paraphrase ) "How many hyper scalers are likely to ramp up orders over the next 2-3 years and how much confidence can we have in these orders ?". Tony didn't really answer the question. He simply said that AWE work with ALL hyper scalers and a the point at which they do it is only regarding proven technology that can be readily adopted.

It looks like the rubber is really only going to hit the road late 2024 / early 2025 but if Tony is even only partially correct in his expectations AWE will then take off.

I'm sure that on Tuesday Tony P. will big up AWE's engineering excellence.

Currently however there is a creditability shortfall in terms of how this engineering excellence manifests itself in comparable financial performance.

This is what I would most like to see satisfactorily addressed next Tuesday.

Despite the lack of financial progress the company has been announcing significant engineering progress.

However at the point at which it doesn't pay for itself the engineering excellence becomes a problem.

Over the course of 2023 net debt increased by $85m. Cash decreased by $85m. Cash at the start of 2024 was $101m.

Engineering needs to start paying for itself sooner rather than later.

Not a lot on the financial side.

28 April 2023 : Alphawave Semi expects 2023 revenue of US$340m to US$360m and adjusted EBITDA of approximately US$87m (or approximately 25% of revenue), which is at the mid-point of the revenue guidance range

16 April 2024 :Alphawave Semi expects 2024 revenue of US$345m to US$365m and adjusted EBITDA of approximately US$70m or approximately 20% of revenue, which is at the mid-point of the revenue guidance range.

So much for an addressable market growing > 20% p.a ( though Tony still thinks that by 2027 everything will still fall into place, just that delivery will be back end loaded )

28 April 2023 : Alphawave Semi expects 2023 revenue of US$340m to US$360m and adjusted EBITDA of approximately US$87m (or approximately 25% of revenue), which is at the mid-point of the revenue guidance range

16 April 2024 :Alphawave Semi expects 2024 revenue of US$345m to US$365m and adjusted EBITDA of approximately US$70m or approximately 20% of revenue, which is at the mid-point of the revenue guidance range.

So much for an addressable market growing > 20% p.a ( though Tony still thinks that by 2027 everything will still fall into place, just that delivery will be back end loaded )

In the tech space some of my favourite YouTubers

The wonderful Sabine Hossenfelder Eg

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ZraZPFVr-U

The equally excellent tech explainer/communicator Christopher Barnatt Eg

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f6mPK3QCrBo

( I thought row 5 of the table @6:09 was interesting from an AWE point of view )

Over the Easter the market will cogitate, deliberate and digest the excellent March 27 debrief.

New managements pitch is that there has been a hard reset and from this point on VANQ are going to move forward into broad, sunlit uplands.

Significant and wide ranging director buys would give this narrative a considerable credibility boost.

Management sitting on their hands would speak volumes about a different reality.

My last post on this thread addressing some of my own comments of the 26th.

- VANQ are not a genuine 24 carat basket case (though previous management were heading in that direction on auto pilot).

- thankfully new VANQ management did not follow the traditional route of their predecessors and failed to disappoint.

- whilst the turbulence of the past few weeks has made me fill my sick bag I do accept that the turbulence was due to factors beyond the control of the flight crew and indeed we have a top notch flight team.

There now follows an interlude while the market cogitates, deliberates and digests the excellent March 27 debrief.

New managements pitch is that there has been a hard reset and from this point on VANQ are going to move forward into broad, sunlit uplands.

Significant and wide ranging director buys would give this narrative a considerable credibility boost (and vice versa).

I wonder how an improvement in ROTE translates to an improvement in profitability ?

Strategy Seminar: Wednesday, 14:00 to 17:00 - https://brrmedia.news/VANQ_SS

My impression that the new team is everything that the old team was not continues to grow ( eg competent, transparent, pro active, in possesion of a plan ).

The big question not anwsered yet is outlook ? Anything at this point in the RNS is woolly.

This mornings session has covered where we are. Given that all shocks have already been aired the SP has been firm (I admit that I thought as most quite often don't read the back story any negatives would trigger a new spate of negative rerates). Thankfully it has held up so (famous last words) the floor seems to be in.

With the above aparently successfully dealt with I'm expecting the afternoon session to address "And here is the rosy plan of where we plan to be"

Strategy Seminar: Wednesday, 14:00 to 17:00 - https://brrmedia.news/VANQ_SS

Results : Wednesday, 08:30:00 - https://brrmedia.news/VANQ_FY23

Strategy Seminar: Wednesday, 14:00 to 17:00 - https://brrmedia.news/VANQ_SS

Hi Pooks

What you see re VANQ depends on where you stand when you look. I have the perspective of a LTH.

Twelve short months ago the SP was at 225p.

As interim's approached the price drifted down to 182p. At that point Malcolm 'Everything is Tickety Boo' Le May handed in the keys to the executive washroom and announced "Don't flush the loo or lift the lid until you get a tape measure. I've a left a present and I think a world record may be on the cards!". The SP tumbled by 35%.

In my water I always knew that MLM was a bluffer. He could never be pinned down at any time, by anyone about anything. Though I did underestimate his ineptitude.

Along comes the new man. He goes out of his way to reassure shareholders/the market. He talks numbers, commits to guidance, makes difficult decisions and appears to every inch the CEO that MLM wasn't.

So I'm utterly dismayed when on the approach to results the SP is bush whacked making MLM's stewardship of the SP seem positively attractive. I have bought a very expensive ticket to air my grievances. Whether directly, indirectly or at all my thoughts get as far as management I feel better for getting them off my chest. I just as soon have steady progress at VANQ that wasn't worth commenting on.

At least tomorrow we find out whether the 60% mauling that the SP has taken since the March 11 RNS can be attributed to

a) VANQ being a genuine 24 carat basket case or

b) an Investor Relations gaff of epic proportions.

I'd suggest that there are three certainties in life : 1) death 2) taxes and 3) VANQ will disappoint.

I'm eagerly awaiting my next disappointment.

My thoughts on Wednesday

Option A : There is a 'bigger picture' that puts VANQ in a better light when ALL the facts are known. In which case the unqualified presentation of selected facts on March 11 was a MAJOR BLUNDER.

Option B : There is NOT a better 'bigger picture'. In which case we are where we are.

Neither option inspires investor confidence.

My best guess is that management WILL have positive things to say on Wenesday but this will be met with a deafening silence UNLESS they are seen to be eating their own dog food.

Has your business been the subject of a bogus claim by Martin Lewis ?

If so YOU could be eligible for substantial compensation.

Go now to www.MyMartinLewisClaim.com to check your eligibility.

I see the The Great Blood Sucking Vampire Squid Group Inc have now dumped over 6% of stock.

I can find no record of when they acquired this holding so it is hard to figure out what their strategy was suffice to say it is bound to be some sort of parasitical skulduggery.

i do fear that management past and present have **** in the nest once too often.

now if they say anything negative on wednesday even if it is a re hash of content from the march 11 pr disaster it will be taken as a new negative and accompanied by a new sp drop.

If management think they have a good story to tell on Wednesday, the next issue is - will anyone be interested / turn up / trust them with their funds given the extent to which on the March 11 they were willing to throw existing shareholders under the bus?

I would suggest NOT and that the Strategy seminar is now doomed to be a damp squib unless it is backed by concrete actions such as share buybacks, significant and broad management buys, a dividend rate that deters short positions etc.

Maybe such measures were not part of the original plan. They need to be now!

I do suspect there was an element of "let's get any negatives out of the way and keep the planned Strategy day upbeat" behind the March 11 RNS.

If so - then as evidenced by the market reaction this has back fired catastrophically. There is now going to be a massive cloud hanging over the Strategy seminar.

The RNS and the way it was thrown over the wall could not have better designed to undermine confidence and instill fear in shareholders/the general market. Further I have a huge problem with the fact that this most recent signal was the complete opposite of that of October 17th when management sought to calm nerves.

Currently if prompted in a word association test with the name "Ian Mc Laughlin" - the phrase "A safe pair of hands" wouldn't be the first thing that springs to mind.