Member Info for Hosai

What if Anacotts painting is moving the sp?

Surely that RNS is only for THG insiders, hence Zilliah and Murphy not being on there (obv they may have sold but we don't know yet).

Not sure can read too much into it Oke. Last time they published the same RNS in previous bid period on 6th June, they must have known the bids were going to come to nothing as they hadn't opened the books to Belerion or Candy. Obv they let us know this on 16th June

https://ir.design-portfolio.co.uk/viewer/95/27274

Now that the golden share is going the potential for takeover is always going to be here for THG. Even if this Apollo deal didn't materialize there will always be a takeover premium built in to sp moving forward the same way Fever tree has been valued higher for years because it's viewed as one that would be ripe for a takeover even though there is no specific news (this is prob part of why it's valued higher than THG currently despite having weaker revenue and EBITDA than THG nutrition alone (let alone THG), obv the other part being THG is undervalued).

Posted this a couple of hours ago, doesn't look like especially new news but can't see full article obv. However clearly he is following things - https://www.betaville.co.uk/news/double-glazing-tycoon-and-former-sale-sharks-owner/

"Can't say too much but it seems they are very concerned about it being taken out of play at a significant premium... One way or another..."

https://twitter.com/TheCitySpy/status/1651262601605554176

FY2022

Sales:
Nutrition: £675.1 million (up 2.4%)
Fever Tree: £398 million (up 11%)

EBITDA:
Nutrition: £51.8 million (7.7% margin)
Fever Tree: £39 million (9.8% margin)

Instagram followers:
My Protein: 1 million
My Vegan: 86k
My Vitamins: 67k
Fever tree: 157k

(there are lots of smaller ones for each by country etc but Nutrition is the bigger online presence overall)

Net debt/cash
THG: £180 million net debt (£140 million if property sold).
Fever Tree: £95.3 million net cash.

Market cap
THG: £1.19 billion
Fever Tree: £1.66 billion

On balance here I'd say nutrition should at the very least be valued equivalent to Fever tree. It should prob actually be higher but lets just say the same to be conservative. To match Fever tree this would mean THG nutrition alone at £1.66 billion or 128p just for nutrition.

Beauty at one times FY2022 sales conservatively adds £1.235 billion or around a £1.

This would take it to £2.28 for the two divisions. Add the tax losses THG can bring forward that Fever tree can't gets this to above £2.50. This ignores any value from ingenuity commerce division.

Relative to how things have been, even a weeks delay would be celebrated compared to another month extension. However still hoping for results this week.

I was just thinking, how it would laid out in the rns, if it was a MBO with Matt M. I guess it would simply say the proposed takeover price from apollo and that the board recommends to accept?
We would then find out who rolled into the private company later on?

Sky report was clearly correct on the new director to be appointed and no other outlet seemed to pick this up. Potentially lends credence to the rest of their report:

"City sources said Apollo Global Management was in detailed talks about an offer for the Manchester-based company that would be at a steep premium to its share price before the approach was disclosed but a huge discount to its 500p float price in 2020.
Previous talks about potential offers for THG, from a range of parties, stalled over the last 18 months, but many analysts expect the company's board to recommend a deal - either with Apollo or another bidder - in the near term."

Could be even slightly higher in this scenario as the article the linkedin poster posted actually says "over 2,500 Walmart locations" rather 2000.
Obv then there is primark increase too.

https://www.theretailbulletin.com/health-and-beauty/revolution-beauty-expands-us-reach-with-new-collection-at-walmart-18-04-2023/

Boohoo/ASOS down over 3% today. Obv THG down more but still the macro will have weighed on things

No idea Andrew am wondering the same, guess we have to wait for the forecasts whenever the results hopefully come in.

The question marks were emojis lol

Guessing this is connected to the Walmart news we heard previously rather than an "extra" expansion?

"Super exciting news!??
We are launching new Revolution Beauty collections for the US into over 2000 Walmart stores.
Using PR, TikTok and digital channels as a driver of demand successfully growing reach in the states."

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/carrieroseballoch_revolution-beauty-expands-us-reach-with-new-activity-7054775499503357952-QCl0/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop

"So far we only had two RNS on accounting, bank facilities were reduced by 7 millions"

Sham you could have also said in that same rns that "revised covenants had been agreed" which obv is a good thing.
Also you could argue the net debt being the same as it was for 31st July last year isn't bad considering there seemingly has been a fair amount of expansion since then in superdrug, walmart and primark.

Isn't sp action kind of irrelevent unless a holder can't hold till May 15, Either there is a deal or there isn't.

"Great to see our bars landing in airports across the UK. (Excuse the pun)."

https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7056521747822436352/?updateEntityUrn=urn%3Ali%3Afs_feedUpdate%3A%28V2%2Curn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7056521747822436352%29

middleEastMoney said he sent this message and had the following response from Bob on Thurs:

Good day Bob,
Are we finally going to get an RNS with some positive news ?? and not kick the can down the road again.
Thanks
Depressed of Dorset

Bob - "We remain hopeful of making a positive announcement".

The reply is a bit vague which isn't the most reassuring on results this week but at-least he says "positive".

Lets hope the latter Oxford though at-least with the former we'd be another month closer to golden share expiration.