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When I said "worse Ebitda" for Ocado I meant negative EBITDA, versus THG circa £70m

Golden I still don't understand why you don't pick more on Ocado instead? Same revenue as THG, worse EBITDA last year, a larger loss made, "marginally positive" EBITDA moving forward, a longer wait for cash flow positive (5 years) and a worse credit rating than THG. Yet apparently worth 300% more than THG.
Ocado doesn't seem to excite you though, you are never on that board and you say something like "well their revenues are more fixed" which thus far doesn't seem to be helping them versus THG.
Is it perhaps because like many here you go negative based on sentiment and then make the figures work around that sentiment, rather then purely being a objective, non-emotive thinker as you claim?

"this would tanked below 50 today if it wasn't for the "offer".
Sp is currently 80p so if you're saying "it would have been 50p or under" then in that case the potential bid is adding a 60% premium to "natural" share price? The market must be buying into the bid potential in that case.

Lets hope the analysts focus on SOTP like Liberum pivoted too.

Most people are focussing on Beauty, however nutrition grew and is likely producing revenue that makes a much better margin now with whey prices down significantly. The 12% medium term doesn't seem too difficult considering they achieved that in 2021 and now have New Jersey automated.
Even if nutrition stayed at the same current revenue and didn't grow (which seems unlikely) then with it earning 12% EBITDA margin medium term (around £81 million EBITDA), surely it should be valued around £1 billion, pretty much covering the current THG market cap by itself. You have to also consider it is carrying forward a lot of tax losses making it easier to turn that EBITDA into net income.

Only way a takeover happens pre golden share is if Matt M is still involved. No way he will sell (he could have sold between £5-£8 for a year but sold none) therefore it's a question of whether he's going to try and buy it out or not before September.
Obviously THG rejecting offers while golden share still in play could still make sp go up however.

Ste Ocado is a lower growth business, predicting "marginally positive EBITDA" this year after negative EBITDA last year, cash flow positive in only 5 years and has a worse credit rating than THG.
Still Ocado has a £4.31 billion market cap. That market cap for THG would give a share price around £3.10

*second day

But Golden it had yesterday to price in the good news of the bid. So you must be saying the sp would have done well a second say on the bid news if you are saying its today holding up bad results. Either that or results aren't that bad to market. Can't have it both ways.
Rose over 40% yest, down 6% today atm.

People saying the bid is holding this up, well this rose by over 40% yesterday. Currently down by 7%, so If you're saying the results would have dropped this more without the bid news then presumably you must think the share price would have rose a second day on the bid news, as the bid news had all of yesterday to price in. So clearly market is taking the bid seriously (or maybe don't think results are as bad as the bears here claim).

Net debt 20 million improvement. Still access to 640 million odd liquidity, main loan doesn't mature until Dec 2026. They should a lot more confident on bottom line. Cash flow neutral this year is something ocado could only dream of.

The figures mostly match the previous analyst consensus on thg site. They're pivoting more to bottom line which is what UK market said they wanted.
Ocado made negative ebitda last year and are predicting marginally positive this year and 5 years to be cash flow positive. Revenue growth has dropped of for them too yet they have a 4.32 billion market cap. Thg even after rise yest only around 1.3 billion.

THG analyst consensus webpage figures have been removed, now just says "under review". I guess ready for tomo

Seems like the FT and times always trot out "opaque accounts" and "weak governance" even though the governance has improved a lot with Lord Allen, new NEDs, and respected CFO.
In terms of "opaque accounts" they never give that much detail about how they want the accounts improved. I suppose we'd all agree it would be better once they hopefully move to giving split accounts however still seems a bit strong to call the group accounts "opaque" which the lay reader will interpret as potentially fraudulent.
Also don't get why so many online seem to be saying the results tomorrow will be bad or even "horrendous", the recent linked in updates from MM and Iain Mcdonald are prob the most vocal and optimistic that we have heard them in a fair while.

Can anyone share the FT article? I've seen in the past their journalists on twitter seem very sarcastic and bitter towards THG.
I've been thinking, the only way a deal happens is if Matt M is still involved. He had a year to sell between £5-£8 pounds and didn't sell any, also could have sold THG for £3.9 billion back in 2018 (equivalent to just under £3 share price) no way he sells for £2 now when the business is now far bigger than then. Obv though if he is still at the helm and is buying with PE it can happen.
So ultimately it has to be in a sense a management buyout or nothing at all? Obv once golden share goes in 5 months it could be different.

Pretty sure if it was lowball they'd have just said the price and that they'd rejected it

A good sign that Liberum have suddenly decided to move to their SOTP valuation. Apollo potentially to make an offer for the whole group rather than a division so isn't necc coming from that?

Difference from previous bid situation is:
1. Apollo is a giant, even the CEO alone has a net worth of $4.7 billion. No rumblings of MM being in cahoots as there was with Belerion and Candy.
2. Matts golden share expires in 5 months, so arguably he has to act.

I realize I slightly contradicted myself by saying it took them by surprise and them saying "it wasn't surprising" lol however I get the feeling they are talking more in general, whereas this specific news has caused them to comment for the first time.

Sparta may need to get involved a bit faster than planned? I get the feeling they at the very least agree with the 221p SOTP.
To me this sentence from financial times implies Apollo may have taken them by surprise a little and they clearly don't agree with it being taken for cheap - "A person close to Sparta argued that Apollo's interest in THG wasn't surprising since the company is significantly undervalued but any offer would have to come with an outsized premium to make sense."