Member Info for Hosai

Apologies JCB you were right! Clearly they've moved to SOTP valuation

Not true JCB, 221p was sum of the parts valuation

3-4pm is usually bad for this share, will be interesting to see the build up to close though

Amongst all the excitement it's been slightly buried that financial times have corroborated the Times reporting that Sparta have bought and that Sparta (or "a person close to Sparta") refer to THG as significantly undervalued. FT describe Franck Tuil of Sparta, as "one of Europe's most feared activist investors".

I agree Boom, don't want to move into ramp territory as I like many was scarred in the previous bid situation, however I do agree that it would be a shame if this was BO before getting nearer that SOTP.

Boom I have seen such things before (200-300% increases) admittedly more on USA drug company stocks however.
I guess it depends if we are talking about a first bid or an eventual 4th/5th bid. If you get the sp up to 150p than 200p obv only requires 33.33% increase.
Also we do have the fact that THG have said 170p significantly undervalues business and rejected offers there, which Apollo will be aware of. It was a fair while back now yes however Id say the macro has actually improved since then.

Boom in terms of % it would actually be a 129% increase from current sp (87.44) to get to £2 rather than over 200%

Jed what do you mean the BOD have come out with this possible offer, it was Apollo who came out with the possible offer.
I could see the bears points about MM being connected with Belerion/Candy. Hard to see him being able to influence/be in cahoots with Apollo who are a far bigger entity.

Nice, now FT have confirmed the Times report of Sparta buying. Also like the "the company is significantly undervalued but any offer would have to come with an outsized premium to make sense." apparently from Sparta

Imagine the pool soul who sold at 64.60 on open

Might be grasping at things just for fun but for Candy bid they put this - "There can be no certainty that any offer will be made, nor as to the terms of any such offer."
For Apollo - "There can be no certainty that any firm offer will be made. A further announcement will be made if and when appropriate."
I.e the uncertainty of terms part not mentioned.

There were various quotes a year ago about separation so it wasn't completely pulled out of thin air -

"We announced the separation of our businesses. And consequently, there will be changes in the way we present the business moving forward."

"The group has also incurred professional fees associated with the acquisitions completed in the year and restructuring costs out of the separation of our key trading divisions. Ahead of our planned separation, we have considered how the change in shape of the group is reflected in our cash-generating units"

"You've got the separation costs. Obviously, the separation gives us huge strategic optionality, and that will be a big win for us in the year ahead as a group. "

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4502838-thg-plc-thghy-ceo-matthew-moulding-on-q4-2021-results-earnings-call-transcript

Great post Sage. Thinking about your EBITDA point it's quite hard to consider why THGs EBITDA wouldn't go at-least back to the FY2021 - 161m range achieved previously. Obv atm the consensus on THGs site is only predicting £120 million EBITDA for FY2023.

When you compare now to FY2021 and consider whey prices are currently lower than FY2021 (let alone 2022 of which they are half those prices), transportation costs are back down to below 2021 levels, they now have automated their New Jersey warehouse and also consider they have Bentley Labs supplier as a full year cost save for FY2023 versus FY2021 (as it was bought in June 2021 therefore only "cost saving" for half of that year).
The only negative would be that labour costs are higher now than FY2021.

Revenue consensus is currently £2,287.1 billion versus FY2021 £2,180 billion. So a £107 million revenue improvement which should theoretically be "better" revenue than FY 2021 due to the discontinuation of certain loss making elements of THG.

All these things considered mean if FY2023 is predicted to be less EBITDA than FY2021s £161 million it would really need to be explained why as it wouldn't seem to make sense. They consistently achieved EBITDA of 9-10% between FY 2017 - FY2020. 9.5% on 2023 consensus revenue should get them £217 million EBITDA. I don't really see why they shouldn't be hitting at least £200 million EBITDA with whey at 5 year lows and this consensus 2023 revenue as I said theoretically being "better" revenue.

It was actually Liberum who valued SOTP at 221p but Kelso agreed with them. Have a feeling that valuation would prob rise if the sp started to get near there though as analysts tend to be psychologically influenced by whatever the current sp is.

Interesting to note this paragraph from the Sparta note to wood group sent on 8th Dec- "Out of respect for your wish to focus on the much-anticipated capital markets day ("CMD") on the 29th of November, we have refrained from making our views public to date. However, we believe it is now important to share our thoughts and concerns with our fellow shareholders and all stakeholders who, like us, have an interest in seeing Wood recognised for the great business it is and the strong prospects it enjoys."

Makes me wonder if they are waiting till after results (assuming Times is correct that they are holders).

This was the wood group letter - https://www.prnewswire.co.uk/news-releases/sparta-capital-sends-letter-to-board-of-directors-of-wood-group-301697697.html

Crowman, your post history shows you are bearish/short on every ticker you post on. THG clearly your one long position...

The "MM did this on purpose" narrative makes no sense at all considering he had a year to sell between £5-£8 but didn't sell any and could have then re-bought them under a pound if the whole thing had been planned. He would then be primed with far more spare cash than he has now to take it private again.

Hard to believe it would be because they've "found other things". The specialist forensic accountants spent 3 months and 3 weeks combing through their accounts. It would seem unlikely that BDO (who have many other audit delays recently) find something they didn't.

Like this part in another times article -

"Given the huge amounts of “dry powder” investor cash the big private equity firms have, competition for new deals will be intense over the next few years, keeping prices high. To continue generating good returns for their investors, firms will need to find new ways to extract value from those acquisitions."

Not sure if this was already posted here amongst all the linked in updates but just saw this post from 3 weeks ago.

"Nutribullet x Myprotein

Our first ever offline exposure in Italy, brought to life by the combination of two great brands!

Available at retails such as: Euronics, Trony, Unieuro and MediaWorld. "

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/gian-rabellotti-568a29103_myprotein-nutribullet-activity-7044699407916625920-fA8A/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop