Member Info for Hosai

It all comes down effectively to what any large investors who aren't going to go private are willing to sell at (I imagine they value it a lot higher however getting quick money is obviously useful) versus how much Apollo is willing to pay (as low as possible but also will be aware this may be the cheapest they can buy such a large chunk, the macro is likely to improve, inflation is falling in US and with energy prices down so much on last year I can only see it falling further across 2023).
Matt M is a kind of go between trying to encourage both parties to compromise a little knowing he may potentially lose control otherwise by Sept with golden share expiry.
I do think a deal becomes a lot more likely when the potential acquirer is also the main bondholder. They must inevitably know the company they are approaching a lot better than the average potential acquirer does.

I can sort of see this but also hard to see how firm an internal deal can be if the price has not yet been agreed?

It's a strange one because since the suspension the wait was for the investigation to be done, then the last few months it was the wait for accounts at end of March, then end of April. Now with it being "during May" it could technically be anytime in May rather than necc waiting for end of the month (but of course that's not to say it wouldn't be end of month).
Obviously they did also say it's "now in its final stages" which hopefully is what it means rather than fluff.
The latest rns makes me wonder if the older accounts are now almost ready but more uncertainty with the intermin accounts hence these now being "shortly after" rather than at the same time as FY2022 accounts as stated previously. It's all guess work though obv.

He def won't be opting to sell the company. You say rns was terrible but as I said in another post if Nutrition was valued as much as fever tree (which it should be as has higher revenue/ebitda/larger online presence) they it would be at £1.57 billion or around 120p just for nutrition. You then have Beauty, ingenuity commerce and the large tax credits to add to valuation. So I'm not sure why there is the idea that without the bid THG will plunge back to "where it should be" after results.
However I agree that with the golden share going even without a deal now ppl can hold knowing things would get interesting again very soon if MM wants to ensure he keeps control. He may have friends alongside now but if sp has sunk back and someone offers 170p or there about again in next few months and he rejects the friends might start to turn against him (if the sp doesn't respond to the rejected offer). If the sp did respond there would be less pressure on Matt M but we'd be happy coz sp has risen.

It was between £6-£8 for a year from Sept 20 to 21, has been under £1 for about 10 months and has been under £2 about 18 months.
So £2.50 being expensive slightly depends on the timeline, however Apollo might feel this would be their last chance to get a very large amout of THG at a price of £2 - £2.50 before stocks in this sector and country make a come back.

Have to wonder why they didn't rns at 7am? It's not like they are currently worried about market movements in the day. Could it be they genuinely thought there was a chance to get the accounts out today still? Though in that case you'd think the new deadline would have said "next week" or "early May".

If Apollo are going to bid, you would surely expect them to buy some shares now but report as late as possible? Myswel buy a few now if you are planning to buy a lot at potentially double the price?

IMO Apollo as debt holders will have been aware before considering an approach they would be having to do it 'with' Matt M rather than buying 'from' him.
I doubt once they got into discussions they suddenly discovered "wow this founder CEO who has lived and breathed this company since 2008 and had a year to sell his shares between £6-8 pounds from Sept 2020 to Sept 2021 but didn't sell any, doesn't want to now sell them all to us for £2 during this temporary bad inflationary macro period that is now improving, I can't believe it!".

I suppose it's the fear of another delay in May. But technically speaking "during May" could be next week (equally could be the end of May obv, though this is at-least the first time they didn't say "end of").
With the 2 bank holidays coming up there's only 4 working days in May before we get to Tues 9th which would be well into "during May".

Very disappointing, only nuggets of positive are "final stages" and "during May" instead of previous "end of" March/April.

It's beautiful...just needs to start with a 2 for added beauty

Is the sp a girl?

The 100p police are one of the toughest forces out there

I did wonder that Manc, surely anyone making a bid would buy up lower now up to 3%

The fact the My Protein/THG nutrition (let alone THG as a whole) isn't valued as high as fever tree shows how broken LSE is.
Fever tree has lower revenue/EBITDA than THG nutrition and is a smaller brand. To match Fever tree valuation nutrition alone should be £1.57 billion or around 120p.
Then you have Beauty, ingenuity commerce and tax losses to add to valuation.

As-long as we can reject a boo offer then it's ok. Don't want them buying this out low when I can see it getting to a £1 fairly quickly based on comps with other similar companies.

"More evidence of global food and beverage companies diversifying into health and wellness, value of $1.2bn equates to 3.1x sales."

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/kelso-group-holdings-plc_japans-kirin-offers-12-billion-for-australias-activity-7057314160186929153-KsJ1/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop

It did say in a prior rns "it was expected" that chairman would leave prior to results publication. Perhaps he doesn't believe he should have to go and is blaming all on CEO? Wouldn't think that would hold up results release though.

Kelso could be buying with their new £3 million?

Maybe market liked being reminded of Lord Allens 2.4 million shares?