Member Info for Hosai

Warpaint is now valued at £190 million on sales of £64.1 million with EBITDA of £11.7 million.

Rev B currently valued at £59 million on sales as far as we know of prob around £210 million and EBITDA around £19 million.

(Rev B do have £21 million net debt versus Warpaint £8.6 million net cash).

Obv this is with Rev B results that are almost a year old so you'd hope was actually better than that now. With full effect of Walgreens/Walmart/Primark expansion to be hopefully seen in the outlook going forward.

Even if he could block with his friends without golden share there would still be a lot more pressure on him if the sp remained low and they kept rejecting offers at higher level and the sp not going to these higher levels. Eventually some his friends may become frustrated and turn against him.

I'm a little more hopeful based on them saying FY2022 "now in its final stages" and "during May" instead of end of the month, as was the last 2 projections.

Linked in post here indicates the good US growth over the last couple of years, Rev B are part of their list of companies - https://www.linkedin.com/posts/saraaziz_insurgent-brands-2023-activity-7059305366618025984-GW6a?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop

"Each year, a new cohort of high-growth brands joins Bain & Company’s annual list of insurgent brands. We define insurgent brands as those in the fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) sector that generate more than $25 million of annual revenues in tracked channels, have grown more than 10 times their category’s average growth rate over the last five years, and have remained independent or been acquired by a large consumer packaged goods (CPG) company only within the last two years."

https://www.bain.com/insights/insurgent-brands-2023-snap-chart/?

"Interesting. Could Matt be in trouble if an RNS landed tomorrow of the deal not going through?"

No, there wasn't any media speculation today regarding issues with the potential approach from Apollo, the sp fell because of how the market read the title. Today we merely had random ponderings about potential difficulties Bloomberg foresee on getting the right price for both parties based on a SOTP valuation that Bloomberg themselves came up with. The only tangible stuff we have got so far about what may be happening with negotiations is the sky news report.
Obviously that's not to say THG couldn't RNS to say no offer tomo (as they could have any day so far or any day moving forward).

Rock they give a "premium valuation" of £2.7 billion - https://twitter.com/LeighOhSee/status/1654055180407537664/photo/1

Not so clear that MM wants 270p however for whatever reason in this second graph they put 270p as a "scenario" when talking about the difficulties the premium to current sp and of getting the two sides to agree on price - https://twitter.com/LeighOhSee/status/1654055439162654722/photo/1

Agree Manc, do wonder also whether Bloomberg considered aspects such as THG tax losses in this 200p odd valuation which was based on comparisons to peers. Obv Apollo would be factoring in the tax losses.

Is there anything to actually refute though? Surely they don't refute opinion pieces? Bloomberg hasn't cast any doubt on whether talks are ongoing, they just gave a dodgy title to their piece.
Bloomberg just said it might be hard to get the right price because the SOTP are worth a lot more than here. They basically indicate they potentially think Matt M would want 270p (see here - https://twitter.com/LeighOhSee/status/1654055439162654722/photo/1 ) and it's worth in their view around 200p but Apollo would want a bargain so would want to pay less than Bloombergs SOTP estimate. That's not really something for THG to publicly "refute" it's just an opinion.

"Surprised the company hasn't put out an rns to refute the claims."

There weren't any claims made, seemed like a carefully worded headline by bloomberg.

Personally I think market saw the bloomberg headline - "THG unlikely to close a deal with Apollo seeing profitable exit" and it scared them, they perhaps don't read the full sentence properly. The actual body of the bloomberg piece has nothing to suggest any issues in the negotiations just is them saying it will be hard to get a deal because THG is very undervalued on SOTP so Apollo would have to pay a very large premium. It doesn't seem to consider the idea of Apollo going private with Matt M.
Since then the market has been spooked by the sp fall in reaction to this piece and people are selling or not buying coz fear the sp is saying the deal is off as Ste is, hence the two arguably go hand in hand.
https://twitter.com/LeighOhSee/status/1654055180407537664/photo/1

Maybe the market was still pricing a standard takeover, I think most on here were imagining Matt M going private with THG. Matt M has an incentive to try and make it work within the next few months or risk losing control.

Wouldn't make sense Jemgeee. What would be the point in Apollo offering 125p, they must know they'd be no point.

From his insta story it looks like he injured his leg. Not that's relevant (unless he kicked something really hard after a deal fell through).
https://www.instagram.com/stories/matthew_moulding/3095135800890983191/?hl=en

This is the other part of the note which emphasis imo that they are seeing it as an issue of the amount of premium to current sp.
https://twitter.com/LeighOhSee/status/1654055439162654722/photo/1
Interesting they give 270p as a price for "scenario" what ever that means.

Bloomberg note basically says THG is so undervalued on SOTP that they can't see the deal working because of how big the premium on current sp they'd have to pay to make it work (question whether they've considered the tax losses in their 207p valuation)
Not sure if they have considered the potential large investors and MM rolling into private aspect.

What's even weirder Licker is the bloomberg note gives a valuation for £2.7 billion or 207p for SOTP. I think this is an undervaluation but hardly seems very bearish compared to current price.

Sky news article was a lot more relevant to the deal, with actual new details about it.
The Bloomberg note has no knew details about the deal, just an opinion piece where they say in their opinion that it's hard to see the right price to suit both parties involved. However they gave the opinion piece a headline which made it sound like they had news on the deal.

If the fall is is purely on the note we can see on the twitter link and there is nothing else missed out then its crazy.
Literally a note that's saying THG is worth 207p SOTP but in their opinion they can't see the two parties finding a deal that would work for both of them. Surely in any deal you both negotiate and give a little ground. Seems OTT to declare it would be impossible for the parties to make it work and doesn't sound like info to believe it won't work at this stage, just says "this makes us question the viability of Apollos takeover intentions".

On solid ground I think it was a legit bloomberg article, but someone has posted it to twitter here. Not sure if this is all or part of it though.

I don't know Canary, maybe there is more to the note that's been cut off. Just weird for the price to fall massively when they are saying 207p