Member Info for hitman1a

It certainly is kicking off in the North Sea. Royal Dutch Shell aren't able to complete their orders.. Raising the order numbers does nothing.. The oil just isn't there. Prices are going up.. Let'em compete for product.. especially the good ****.

What has been keeping the SP down?.. oil price and planning the Acquisition.. How long have they been working on it:?
Probably from August 2020:

Will J P Morgan keep the price low until the placing...? probably... but it's going to be hard with $50m net positive FCF/mth.. It's ridiculous really .. so I'm sticking with my 18p target (market cap £305m).. when ASAP. Brent is almost $59 and the effective date of the transaction is 1 Jan 2021. So it just comes down to the open offer terms . Raising £37m : Now isn't the time.. We might find issuing another 1 for every 5 held at 15p when the SP is 18p acceptable.. ?

New shares would be 2,034,000 : 18p would be market cap of £366m.. still low , but not bad for people, many of whom may not be able to fund the entire holding open offer. I think in the past I have sold enough shares to cover the cost of the new ones. They have to deploy it at a discount when the shares are rising in an improving market..

Is my maths right? My Casio can't handle all the zeros.

Hi Pelle
I was just doing the same maths and came to net debt $1095m at 31 Dec 2021..
Again why do we need to put in $50m.. it makes no sense.

Brent has recovered and there is a good chance by Oct 2023 we are net debt zero.. Now we know Enquest never want to be in this position... so they are probably looking for another acquisition.. god help us..

Perhaps they could issue a dividend of $50m and we could then use the cash to pay for the open offer issue.

I agree Chilting. The strength of Brent over the next 6 mths and our FCF using the effective date of 1 Jan 2021 should see the SP rise. Not sure about 25p, but I have 18p pencilled in. That gives people a chance to sell what they have today for profit and potentially pay for the open offer shares on any remaining shares. The placing shares might get offered at a 15% discount him the offer price. I hope they do it in September. Otherwise let AB underwrite as much of the $50m as possible as a loan. Doing him a favour really to protect his holdings and ours .

Yes Pelle,
The purchase price would take account of the current drilling capex as well imv. Perhaps there won’t be any capex on this field for another 2 years after July 2021 , Would that mean costs are just $5. With revenue at $65 on 10k / day , that’s a lot of cash in months where no drilling capex of $15. They can’t be infill drilling every year . The numbers look good . Call it a 2 year payback and the rest is free ? Who knows ? , I think the deal is good and it’s up and running already , It’s in mid life , not end of life .

JS pointed out the the AB backstop on the RI is also for the benefit of Suncor.. ie : transaction confidence

JS says about $700m new RBL in Oct 2021 and he can tidy up the balance sheet (fold in Magnus loan, Kraken 15% and existing RBL including PIK): JS says this will be repaid before the Bonds maturity in Oct 2023. Looks like they will refinance the bonds with another RBL at the time.. But what happens to all the excess money from now until Oct 2023.. It's more than the new RBL facility.. so I guess the excess cash position of the company near Oct 2023 will set off against the bonds and the balance will form the new Oct 2023 RBL. $500m will be ok.

Enquest Heather has most of our corporate tax losses so will acquire the Newco which has the Golden Eagle assets, thereby utilizing the historic tax losses.

IF we see Brent prices around $65 from April 2021 for 6 mths, then the SP should be higher .. and the rights dilution less costly.. It could even be oversubscribed nearer the time depending on Brent. Effective date from 1 Jan 2021.

Overall good, but a equity raise of $50m spoilt the show.. Not that after fees , the company gets $50m. (perhaps nearer $40m) .. Maybe the SP will be better nearer Xmas. At the moment Brent isn't having a good day..

I'm glad they bought something before prices went up and they missed the window.

It’s not a rights issue

yeah, AB should just loan the company $50m and avoid dilution for us and himself.

Maybe they will drill block PM409 in Malaysia this year , repair the broken half and improve production from 4k to 8k to 16k with the benefit of the new larger well. ?

"Hold the Line..Therapist....love isn't always on time".. Kimball left Toto and then came back.

Richard Hall left and has come back. You don't need a Richard Hall to look after a measly 4k in Malaysia. I think they have something significant to announce over there. Something that says yes, let's do that and not worry about shutting off all the very old high maintenance North Sea assets. The pieces of the puzzle have to show a picture at somepoint . Looking forward to 4 pages of update with waffles at somepoint in February 2021. The only thing that matters is the oil price.

I'm sure AB would refer you back to what they started off with many years ago... Very little.. and draw your attention to the future cash flows. What is Enquest without AB and JS.?

What is TOTO without Bobby Kimball.?.

OPEC plus still think the market rebalancing actions need to continue. Imv that means prices can go higher in April. Very impressed with the diagram presented today from Downing street. Chris W seemed much more optimistic. If they think some kids can go back to school from March, it bodes well for oil demand to increase too. $65 seems like a good possibility in early Q2 , but vaccination progress might bring that forward, a week or two.

Ammu123 said so.

I believe him..

Better volume on the UT compared to the last 5 trades that took it up from 13.34 p

Maybe a 7am RNS.. ( no 1 trade in the data) , but could also be a 10am one as well..

15p plus if Carlsberg is back in the office.

13.78p on google :feels good to see it.. but we already know the ops update is tomorrow

7am or a relaxed 9.45am after a second cup of coffee?

The OZ loan tends to be hedged early in the year for the whole year.. They might have hedged already at Brent $55 and we would miss out on the upside / accelerated debt reduction.. I remember AB saying one year.. " we did what they told us to do".. so 2020 worked out well for them.. Given the lower amounts , Enquest might be able to convince them to delay the decision till April 2021 or when $60 or $65 is reached.. but I gather they will always hedge.

Good PR..

Irrespective of the EIA numbers in 20mins.. when you look at how much oil the US is exporting today and the rate of vaccinations.. ( Biden wanted 100m n 100 days. should be more like 150m), the US doesn't produce enough oil to support it's export demand and home use.. Brent might fly past $60 today.. but we need $65 plus premium just like Goldman mention, only much earlier.

Premium numbers on Kraken will always remain confidential. I like the idea of joint marketing between Cairn and Enquest as it stops them competing against each other.. Mercedes Benz always try and sell cars with Premium and Premium Plus spec.. Sure the gross number is on the invoice at the top of the page, but it's the bottom number after discount that counts.. The same might apply to Kraken loads.. regular buyers get a discount incentive. So it's Brent $65 that gets the SP moving up.

Plus of course we had "negative equity" of $57,331,000 as of 30 June 2020..

The above is the real boat anchor on the SP at the moment.. Which way will it go when they issue the full accounts on 25 March 2021, without the write back based on future oil price assumptions..

Even though it's just a 4 page ops update tomorrow, we could get significant positive news from 2 areas. Firstly a potential buyer for the FPSO currently in hot stack, and secondly reversing out last years write down. They expected $49 this year but we are at $58.

I wonder how many shares she’ll buy ?