Member Info for hitman1a

We haven’t voted on it yet , early days

Just saw the S&P Energy index on Bloomberg. Similar graph to our SP, but its slightly better on recent performance. If we matched it , we should be near 16p. Energy should be part of your portfolio now, as cars and heating only absorb 40% of the products. There will be a lot more demand for oil going forward into the recovery.

Amrita Sen is thinking $80 2022.

Several through out the day.. decoys..

This can't be right.. but it looks like in a few weeks our Magnus barrels will be earning the same as our super special Kraken

That's like Stella selling for the same price in the supermarket as Skol.

But a good indication that the thirst for oil is very strong..

13:32 : 1 sell.. looks like another RNS in system.. but the SP hasn't gone up.. so could be a decoy..

If we take the May 2021 date at which point we expect Brent to be higher (perhaps at or near $70)..and we are improving our shareprice 0.14p /day..(0.7p/wk) , then over 12 weeks from today to say mid May , the share price might gain 8.4p, so target is 21.96p. £372m market cap.. doesn't seem unreasonable.

Also the company retains the right to buy back £50m of share each year ( it could be $).. Anyone think if the cash is ok in Q3, they proceed with the OO (they have to, as its conditional now on getting the new RBL) , then do a share consolidation , with a share buy back at the same time. Magic ?, but it's not a dividend.

So : 18k/25k x $63: $45.36
and 7k/25K x $70 ( discounted from SIngapore $77 delivered price): $19.6

Average : $64.96 .. not bad on Kraken loads for 1H 2021 if Brent was $63.. Plus most of the other oil is sold near Brent $63 too..(apart from 0.7m at $57).

Maybe for non-hedged Kraken barrels.. but the RNS said we hedged 3.3 m barrels of Kraken in the $54/$63 range . that's 18K/day for 1H 2021 . Even we do do 25k/day, that leaves 7k / Kraken benefitting from upside..

Plus isn't that the Singapore price.. Maybe we should get out of the hedge, pay the $9m and see what happens.

Thanks E121. guess we will just accept the $62 and upside on the balance of production.. but we could layer on another % batch on the unhedged barrels for 1H 2021. Perhaps wait for $65 and then if I understand right, do another costless collar on the range $60 to $70.. ?

Anyone have any expertise? our range is $53 to $62 for 1H 2021 : can we close them and reset at a higher range..?

$60 to $75?

The market cap should be double..

Your talking about the balance of shares not taken up by ordinary shareholders which J P Morgan has to find buyers for via a placing.. Think at the last rights issue of 21p, the placing balance was getting sold for bids around 18p .. Brutal but 15% discount .

Hi Chilting.

Trying to estimate the timeline. JS said he though September 2021 to complete deal.
Magnus rights issue ( but this is Open offer).. took about 6 weeks
Maybe they will ask for the OO money in July 2021.. when we don't need it.. and Brent and the SP is higher..
Think we are in the hand of JP Morgan.. When they start the book running etc , but the $value is so small , they might place it with themselves and sell at the end of the year.. easy money. For the moment the bankers are organizing as new RBL.

Well done Mrcx3/d
BOA estimated only a short while ago it would take until mid 2021 to get to Brent $60.. Even we travel sideways at this level for a few months.. that's still very good cashflow.

As Jeff B might say "This Quarter was made 3 years ago"..

I also saw a "1" trade earlier today.. in red.

Keep your head down.. just collect the cash every month.. ok it all goes to the bank.. but so what.

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Ammu's chauffeur also told me his PA bought him a ticket on the train. First class section, but a child ticket. Apparently this is intentional. The ticket inspector will be checking at the next stop and will ask him to leave. Apparently he will make up some excuse he has to go to Shanghai to get a rabbit's foot.. The next stop is at 65m above sea level.

He's waiting for his mates in Aberdeen to give him some info. His chauffeur told me he left some notes in his car.. Something to do with the Kraken collars at $62 might be too low for 1H.. but I told him that's good enough on part of the production.

My combi boiler started leaking this morning , are any of you plumbers ? Preferably familiar with the Ideal brand .

Reflation then inflation
Our Sp hasn’t reacted to the reflationary oil prices, but should with earnings over 2021 , one day at a time .