At 15:07 today Brent got to $69.31 and the SP 24.95p
Try again for 25p plus on Monday.. Our share price drop later in the day mirrored Tullow. After the market has closed, Brent is now trying again for $69 plus.
We have got to look further down the road.. 12 to 18mths.. to get a fairer equity price for Enquest.. There is also the absence of analysts... what happened to all of them..? Don't they produce targets anymore.? Our Kraken premium is the equivalent of twin turbos.
I recall being in Toledo perhaps say 25 years ago and my uncle was saying he was going to buy gold at $500 and I thought the price had peaked. lots of others thought it has peaked too.. The price has gone up quite a lot since then. I remember being at a GKP investor presentation say 10 years ago and gold was rising.. I said to someone i didn't think there was any shortage of gold.. and some pundits replied it was a good hedge.. the price kept going up.. These days there are other class assets that people prefer so gold may not rise as expected. We are not in times of extreme stress where J P Morgan are quoting $2,500 and episodes of Gold Rush are talking of very good prices.. the best we have ever seen . Tbh, whether Brent is $68 or $75 doesn't really make much difference to me at the petrol pump.. so why not target Brent $75 plus VLSFO premium.
The share price improvement reminds me of Quintain Estates a decade ago.. The property sector was out of favour and there were constant covenant breaches. but the fundamentals changed. The price moved from 16p to 24p then 40p then much higher near £1 when it got takeover.. Just like the vaccines and OPEC+ policies have changed the fundamentals of the market . Would you ever have though US Shale, BP, Shell all decided in the same month they had reached peaked production..
I was thinking the path was now clearer for Enquest.. (small hint for Chilting)..
Tesla : too many people love it , too many US funds keep buying the dip.. It should hold from here even if there is some rotation out of Tech. Think they had a few delivery issues, but once they sort it out, the SP will start climbing again..
Hard to say : was thinking £675m/ 40p but RI would take it down to 38p But a sector re-rate supported by large II buying larger oilers would lift up this boat too.
You could see 25p tomorrow am.. Think it, Dream it, Believe it. You will see it.
Energy v Financials is the topic I see recently in the media.. and pundits always pick Financials if they have to make a choice between one or the other.. Barclays and Lloyds did well today.. I got a tip last night on Sig Plc . Didn't buy in this morning, but it went up 10% by midday.. It promptly came back down after the budget. Think there are some easy pickings out there. Goldman Sachs was suggested as a buy too. US Parsley say there is another 20%/25% upside in energy equity so I think the same applies to Enquest too.. so 25p.. Only nasty surprise is if they announce the RI at the time of the 25th March accounts.. I really think they should wait until July 2021 etc.. The banks might waive the requirement.. hopefully they will get too embarrassed to ask for it. All we need now is OPEC+ to carry on in a sensible way. Many of the members would have watched the UK budget.. seen Sunak's timeline and concluded there is no rush to bring back barrels.
We still have a decent amount of monthly deleveraging and our Kraken premium on unhedged barrels. The SP wants to go up as its still significant compared to the market cap. Brent is still healthy but we clearly want to avoid the Opec debacle experienced this time last year. If Opec+ want to bring in 1.5m more from April, we might need it and more. Biden is now saying every US adult will be offered a vaccine by end of May. We could see significant demand increases in the US by June.